tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post4076903709648352074..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Trade Target: Rick PorcelloJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-69509703121776315162012-12-26T16:23:17.473-05:002012-12-26T16:23:17.473-05:00Actually, I am pretty well versed and somewhat con...Actually, I am pretty well versed and somewhat connected when it comes to the prospect world. Welcome to Camden Depot. So, yes, I am familiar with the Detroit system. I am unsure why you think someone has to be on par with Machado to be elite. Machado is a pretty unique player. I think you are getting a bit too caught up in age and comparing him to someone he probably should not be compared to if you want an even keeled view.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-78477113013344493612012-12-26T12:15:25.430-05:002012-12-26T12:15:25.430-05:00Just because the Os would have to insist on one of...Just because the Os would have to insist on one of Garcia and Castellanos in return doesn't mean I think the Tigers would offer it. Certainly, the Orioles should take it if the Tigers do offer Porcello and Castellanos. Back to reality, the two trades I suggested are a better indicator of what I consider JJs value. You'll note that Castellanos wasn't listed in either because I don't really think they'll move him in a deal for JJ. <br /><br />I don't know how familiar you are with the Tigers farm system but it's very top heavy. Aside from Castellanos, Garcia and Rondon there really isn't anything interesting there. <br /><br />If you're not a fan of Porcello then the Tigers really don't have many interesting pieces. Aside from the aforementioned three, they have got a few very young guys with potential. They also have got a few guys who have talent but have failed miserably at the higher levels of the minors. <br /><br />If you think that Jim Johnson's value is far higher then a fifth starter at best like Porcello then the Tigers don't have much to offer. If Porcello can't be a centerpiece (and he shouldn't) then the only guys who can be a centerpiece are Castellanos and Garcia (Rondon isn't going anywhere and is worth far more to the Tigers then the Os). Frankly, I think that Porcello's value is extremely low. <br /><br />That doesn't mean the Tigers would trade Castellanos for JJ (although I think Garcia for JJ is possible) but it does mean that the Tigers and Orioles don't match up very well and a deal would require more pieces than just JJ and Porcello. <br /><br />Certainly, Castellanos is young and it's certainly forgivable that he was horrible in AA. But a guy like Machado was very good at AA and was even younger. The fact that Castellanos didn't do as well as Machado indicates he's not an elite prospect.<br /><br />Castellanos is certainly a top hundred guy. But people talk about him like he's top twenty when he probably should be top seventy. That's what I mean by over rated. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-85936441353588424622012-12-25T21:09:08.084-05:002012-12-25T21:09:08.084-05:00Matt, I don't know if you are just scouting th...Matt, I don't know if you are just scouting the number in Erie, but Castellanos looks like an amazing hitter. I would not get too wound up on what he did in AA as a 20 year old. Performance often lags behind the talent for high schoolers.<br /><br />Also...you have an incredibly high opinion of Jim Johnson. Porcello+Castellanos? The response would be a dial tone. I have to contend that that would be an incredible misevaluation in terms of value.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-1644966832124834712012-12-25T18:43:40.842-05:002012-12-25T18:43:40.842-05:00The Tigers would need to offer more than Porcello ...The Tigers would need to offer more than Porcello for Jim Johnson. <br /><br />Porcello may have some promise but he hasn't been good since 2009. It's true that his FIP/xFIP imply he's better than his ERA but after a certain point you need results. Frankly, he got hit hard last year which is why his BABIP was so high. It'll likely drop next year but that will result in his HR/9 going up. Given that he averages fewer than 6 innings per outing he really doesn't even eat innings. <br /><br />At this point, I'm skeptical that he's better than Britton, Tillman or Gonzo and if so I don't know where he'd fit. Given that he's being traded because he doesn't fit on the Tigers, I'd have to think he's a buy low candidate.<br /><br />If I'm the Os and the Tigers wanted JJ, I'd have to insist on Porcello and one of Garcia or Castellanos in return. Castellanos sorta was horrible in AA this year (even if he was solid in HiA) and is over-rated. I doubt the Tigers feel the same way though.<br /><br />I suspect if the Tigers and Os do come to a deal that it will be a big one. Perhaps JJ, Patton and Hoes/Avery for Garcia, Porcello, Oliver and Crosby? Or maybe JJ, Reimold and Wright for the four listed above? Matt Pnoreply@blogger.com