tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post3661987362974102262..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Austin Hays, 20th OF Taken in the 2016 DraftJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90107943339323891422017-09-28T20:40:16.787-04:002017-09-28T20:40:16.787-04:00Hopefully, he won't be Austin singles!Hopefully, he won't be Austin singles!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05655243516414448784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-76459385999578920742017-09-28T12:41:06.799-04:002017-09-28T12:41:06.799-04:00 Thank you very much for your kind and informative... Thank you very much for your kind and informative reply, I really appreciate it. I will also probably refer to it in the future. Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-31438311084234835862017-09-28T10:20:30.236-04:002017-09-28T10:20:30.236-04:00That is not how you evaluate a prospect. Prospect...That is not how you evaluate a prospect. Prospects are not placed in bins and then from there pigeon-holed. He was not even drafted to play shortstop. He was drafted for the potential in his bat and, like all guys who can play shortstop in high school, was left to play short until his bat or his play drifted him down the spectrum.<br /><br />Local beat media has been flowery of his performance at shortstop, but that is because it is local beat media. Getting information about prospects from someone like Steve Melewski is a recipe to be constantly caught off guard. No one ever expected him to be able to play shortstop. He simply plays there because at minor league level he kind of could and the emphasis was placed on his bat.<br /><br />I think when we get to things he cannot do well enough, remember he is a fringe top 100 prospect by all publications. He even got on a couple top 100 prospect lists mid-season. The reason why things are negative on him is because he is playing where he is not supposed to be, so the assessment is a downturned assessment. Yes, he is doing really well at the plate, but that really is not his position and he does not walk a lot. Those last two undermine his value as a shortstop, but do not undermine his value as a left fielder or first baseman. That said when you change the context to those positions, you have to note the greater importance those positions play on the bat coming through.<br /><br />But, no, top 100 prospects who are 4 years young than the competition in their end of season league are generally not considered wasted draft picks.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-71404206992733269812017-09-28T09:57:11.495-04:002017-09-28T09:57:11.495-04:00Well he was drafted to play short, wasn't he? ...Well he was drafted to play short, wasn't he? And it's turning out that he hasn't the ability to play there and they are having trouble finding a position for him so I was wondering if their expections for him were to high.<br />I've never seen him play but everything about him mentions things he cannot do well enough.Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-41831972982579752022017-09-28T09:18:54.328-04:002017-09-28T09:18:54.328-04:00"Was Mountcastle another wasted pick?"
..."Was Mountcastle another wasted pick?"<br /><br />I honestly do not understand this question.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-10941575224359658472017-09-27T22:53:07.773-04:002017-09-27T22:53:07.773-04:00Was Mountcastle another wasted pick?Was Mountcastle another wasted pick?Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-24641515379506770992017-09-27T14:44:07.590-04:002017-09-27T14:44:07.590-04:00Got it. Thanks for the details, Jon.Got it. Thanks for the details, Jon.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17733208205822734167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-72781407660320748682017-09-27T12:54:21.915-04:002017-09-27T12:54:21.915-04:00What is the basis for Stewart not being a viable s...What is the basis for Stewart not being a viable starter. Well, in a base sense, he showed no carrying tools at AA. If you have a tool alone that is loud enough to be conidered MLB ready right now, that probably bumps you up to maybe only a 33% outcome of being a MLB starter to some degree. Stewart lives below that level.<br /><br />To dive deeper, Bowie is a pretty decent hitting environment. Stewart put up an offensive line that was about 18% better than league average, which is what you would expect for a starting caliber AA corner outfielder. He does come across as polish, but his approach rapidly devolves to making contact only when facing pitchers with more MLB ready offerings. Outfield defense is good for the level and that should not be a limiting factor for him in left field, but there are concerns about his long term athleticism. By keeping his head above water last year, he rose from a very fringe prospect to a C+/B- kind of guy.<br /><br />Mountcastle? His arm made SS a stretch and so did his lateral movement. 3B really is the last line before a move to LF or 1B. He does not have the range for 2B or the arm to sit deep like Schoop does to make up for his lack of range.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-68203676566478254042017-09-26T22:41:17.556-04:002017-09-26T22:41:17.556-04:00His arm sucks...so they move him to 3B
...what abo...His arm sucks...so they move him to 3B<br />...what about 2B?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17733208205822734167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-9271162547109683172017-09-26T22:40:18.035-04:002017-09-26T22:40:18.035-04:00On what basis is Stewart not a viable starter?On what basis is Stewart not a viable starter?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17733208205822734167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-85693316034233269332017-09-26T22:10:45.044-04:002017-09-26T22:10:45.044-04:00StewartStewartJon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-83794517959399548462017-09-26T22:10:15.128-04:002017-09-26T22:10:15.128-04:00It is more likely that Stearth and Mullins will no...It is more likely that Stearth and Mullins will not be viable starters, so I would preach a bit of uncertainty.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-84371347813744655742017-09-26T21:46:47.565-04:002017-09-26T21:46:47.565-04:00Not sure if that is sarcasm, no one thought Mountc...Not sure if that is sarcasm, no one thought Mountcastle was going to stick at SS. They moved him to 3B when he was promoted to AA. He's struggling there as well.btwrestler119https://www.blogger.com/profile/13114527219746054252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-67316749811966054082017-09-26T21:25:30.759-04:002017-09-26T21:25:30.759-04:00Isn't Mountcastle SS?Isn't Mountcastle SS?Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-72048908977653914402017-09-26T20:34:33.916-04:002017-09-26T20:34:33.916-04:00DJ Stewart is the long term LF option. He'll ...DJ Stewart is the long term LF option. He'll hit enough and although the early defensive reports were bad, he has improved mightily. Both Clay Davenport's and Baseball Prospectus' milb defensive metrics absolutely love Stewart in LF.btwrestler119https://www.blogger.com/profile/13114527219746054252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-73869670568515935622017-09-26T12:45:31.813-04:002017-09-26T12:45:31.813-04:00I think Mullins would be more ideally suited for c...I think Mullins would be more ideally suited for centerfield. If he does not stick there, then I would figure he is moving into 4th OF territory.<br /><br />My guess is that Ryan Mountcastle is a more likely solution in LF. Bowie numbers were terrible, but he looked good putting up those terrible numbers. He has enough athleticism to cover left. Mullins would be a better defensive option.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-80370646828969166982017-09-26T12:33:50.818-04:002017-09-26T12:33:50.818-04:00Thank you. Yes you mentioned that he has speed and...Thank you. Yes you mentioned that he has speed and a decent arm, but that was all. In our very tiny outfield, it's extremely important to have really good defenders there and over the last few years it seems that the Orioles have Completely given up on defense in favor of offense.<br /> I appreciate the supplement. If Mancini looks like an eventual DH first baseman, can Cedric Mullins handle left? I do not know his current position, and I don't even know if he's far enough along to have settled in anywhere.Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-10297552494273777562017-09-26T11:58:21.982-04:002017-09-26T11:58:21.982-04:00I thought I discussed him as a five tool player, n...I thought I discussed him as a five tool player, noting each tool.<br /><br />Hayes looks like an average right fielder. Public reports claim a strong arm. I do not see it and specific minor league reports I see do not see that either. Just an average arm. He is fine out there. Centerfield looks like a stretch. If defense was a carrying tool, then center field would be fine.<br /><br />Mancini? He was below average. Scouts say his athleticism is worse than last year, so that does not bode well. His running speed is on par with Adam Jones, so if his anticipation/acceleration/routes improve then he might be a long term solution there. I do not know anyone who thinks he is a long term solution there.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-15750046958388885792017-09-26T10:45:56.444-04:002017-09-26T10:45:56.444-04:00Articles like this always seem to ignore defense. ...Articles like this always seem to ignore defense. I don't want a lumbering semi in the OF but that's what we mostly get in the Dan/Buck years.<br />How is Hayes' D?<br />And for that matter, how has Mancini's defense developed?<br />Listening on the radio, as I usually do, it's impossible to tell how often a player backs off and plays a catchable ball as a single, and errors hardly tell the tale( though Trumbo is so bad it is often clear even on the radio.)Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.com