tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post3481295170609034965..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014: Designated HitterJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-71877798038764072202013-10-21T13:34:30.289-04:002013-10-21T13:34:30.289-04:00this just came up on a BP effectively wild podcast...this just came up on a BP effectively wild podcast a couple of days ago and thought it related well to this discussion of an 11 man bullpen. the thought that starting pitchers with a scheduled bullpen session should pitch those pitches in a game, allowing the team to get more value from them over the course of the year. after discussing some pros and cons, they didn't come to a conclusion as to whether or not it would be a good idea, but i thought it was an interesting idea.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05119567934749982333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-83802266842245936352013-10-20T23:57:16.807-04:002013-10-20T23:57:16.807-04:00Regardless of the merits of going to a 6 man pen, ...Regardless of the merits of going to a 6 man pen, Showalter is pretty old school and frequently preaches about the importance of protecting the bullpen, so its probably not going to happen. Improving the bench is certainly a major priority, though, and I think it will happen. <br /> <br />If Betemit had played and been productive again vs RH pitching we might not even be having this discussion, so I'm sure they'll look at bringing him back for 2014. There's generally some flexibility between corner outfield spots and the DH position, so bringing in a high-obp corner outfielder with subpar defense could also make sense. Maybe Carlos Beltran if the price isn't too high?Liamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-52373981117807666212013-10-20T19:46:02.572-04:002013-10-20T19:46:02.572-04:00You definitely wouldn't want to make your high...You definitely wouldn't want to make your high leverage relievers throw more innings. I don't think that's inevitable for a six man bullpen. <br /><br />The top four guys are already pitching a large majority of the high leverage innings. The top five guys are pitching nearly all of them. <br /><br />As long as you can leverage the #5 and #6 guy to pitch the same percentage of low-impact innings as the #5, #6 and #7 guy do right now then the numbers of innings that the #1-#4 guys pitch shouldn't change. And if you swap out the #5 and #6 guy regularly then that means you can use them often over a short span and then switch them out for another guy or two. <br /><br />It should be possible.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-27124256322380148852013-10-20T17:17:44.850-04:002013-10-20T17:17:44.850-04:00Two other points - (1) Instead of shuttling pitche...Two other points - (1) Instead of shuttling pitchers to the minors, you can always stash them on the disabled list. As far as I know, no one is going to care if the seventh guy in the bullpen is on the DL for a couple of weeks with a minor "injury." And second, we also don't know how many more innings the higher-leverage relief pitchers can pitch without damage. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29308656714775226002013-10-20T12:53:27.237-04:002013-10-20T12:53:27.237-04:00#5 relievers have an average ERA of 3.98 and an av...#5 relievers have an average ERA of 3.98 and an average WAR of .2. They range from a third quartile of 3.23 and .5 WAR to a first quartile of 4.58 and -.1 WAR. <br /><br />#6 relievers have an average ERA of 4.28 and an average WAR of .09. They range from a third quartile of 3.41 and .4 WAR to a first quartile of 5.08 and -.2 WAR.<br /><br />#7 relievers have an average ERA of 4.47 and an average WAR of .01. They range from a third quartile of 3.29 and .25 WAR to a first quartile of 5.38 and -.2 WAR.<br /><br />#8 relievers have an average ERA of 4.53 and an average WAR of 0. They range from a third quartile of 3.33 and .2 WAR to a first quartile of 5.53 and -.2 WAR.<br /><br />#9 relievers have an average ERA of 4.79 and an average WAR of 0. They range from a third quartile of 3.29 and .2 WAR to a first quartile of 6.15 and -.2 WAR.<br /><br />#10 relievers have an average ERA of 5.28 and an average WAR of -.05. They range from a third quartile of 3.70 and .1 WAR to a first quartile of 6.75 and -.2 WAR.<br /><br />Given that the average #5 pitcher in the bullpen gets fewer then 10 holds and saves combined we can conclude that he's not pitching in crucial situations. Given that he averages about 66 innings a game, that would be that using an average #9 reliever instead of an average #5 reliever would cost a team roughly .8 runs per 9 innings or about 5.9 runs a season. Since the runs aren't given up in crucial points, the impact is probably less then that. The average #6 pitcher in the bullpen only throws 48 innings on average and averages half a run fewer per 9 innings. That would mean the difference between him and the #9 pitcher would be about 2.6 runs a season. <br /><br />We see that provided that a team doesn't have a good #6 reliever, there's little difference in performance between him and an average #9 reliever. This means that the only benefits that the average #6 and #7 relievers have is that they throw low leverage innings so that the top guys don't have to do so. Likewise, if a team also has a below average #5 reliever then his only benefit is throwing low leverage innings. <br /><br />If a team wants to have a six man bullpen then all you'd need to do is make sure that your low leverage relievers didn't get worn out. You'd do that by making sure that your #6 and possibly #5 guy has options and then simply sending them down to the minors frequently to give them rests while calling up reserves. <br /><br />This would probably kill your AAA team and would mean that you'd need to consider keeping a bunch of marginal arms on the forty man roster. The major difficulty would be managing the forty man roster. <br /><br />But having an extra player on the bench does give you the ability to have another platoon. If that platoon player was worth an extra win then it would be worth it. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29622660792572917662013-10-20T12:51:59.045-04:002013-10-20T12:51:59.045-04:00"Maybe things have shifted too far and bullpe..."Maybe things have shifted too far and bullpens are overstaffed. It may be with the swing back from the offensive era we witnessed in the late 90s and early 00s that a new perspective with the pen needs to be taken. I am not exactly there yet. I'd like to see some thesis on that.<br /><br />It is a pretty fascinating question. At what point can you get rid of the 12th man on your staff?"<br /><br />Heh, funny that you ask. Suppose we try to split up relievers based on three categories; saves, holds and innings. Namely, #1 relievers would be the guys with the most saves. #2, #3 and #4 relievers would be the most pitchers with the most saves and holds. #5 to etc relievers would be the pitchers with the most innings. Once a reliever is put into a category, he can't be put into another one. <br /><br />The reason why I use this methodology is because #1 relievers are usually closers who get saves. #2, #3 and #4 guys are usually relievers who get holds. Typically, a team has a setup man who pitches the eighth and two guys that pitch the seventh. In a given year (from 2002-2013), there are usually about 3.8 relievers on a team that have a total of ten or more saves, holds. If you include blown saves in that total then it's at 4.5. <br /><br />After this, we can use innings pitched to determine which relievers are #5s, #6s, #7s, etc. Given that I'm using a dataset consisting of 12 years and there are 30 teams playing each year, that means that there should be roughly 360 relievers per slot. That means of the remaining relievers, the next 360 are #5s, the ones after that are #6s, the ones after that are #7s etc. <br /><br />If we split the relievers into these groups and look at the average, first quantile and third quantile of ERA and WAR then we see the following:<br />Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48871878529570499442013-10-19T17:30:38.902-04:002013-10-19T17:30:38.902-04:00Jon has my point exactly. Mediocre hitters aren...Jon has my point exactly. Mediocre hitters aren't going to cut it.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-42495106835800132212013-10-19T17:21:38.611-04:002013-10-19T17:21:38.611-04:00#Jon - I think that teams have gravitated to the 1...#Jon - I think that teams have gravitated to the 12- or 13- man bullpen because (1) they've gone too far in protecting bullpen arms; (2) managers don't want to be criticized if they lose a game because they can't manipulate the lefty-righty platoon advantage; and (3) they really haven't thought in depth about it.<br><br />But more to the point, I don't think the Orioles can compete by copying everyone else. I'd rather them give the existing bullpen arms another twelve innings a season and get some positive production from DH. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-91597879311417732762013-10-19T16:28:05.375-04:002013-10-19T16:28:05.375-04:00Patrick - I think with that sentence following the...Patrick - I think with that sentence following the proceeding paragraphs, Joe is saying that the Orioles would be better suited to find a plus bat or two for DH instead of using it as a place to rest players. In that way...it really is not a "the team who scores more will win this game" kind of comment.<br /><br />Or, I could just be confused.<br /><br />Anyway, thanks for dropping by.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-22467475248613065282013-10-19T16:18:41.467-04:002013-10-19T16:18:41.467-04:00Just discovered your blog. Good stuff, for the mos...Just discovered your blog. Good stuff, for the most part. Except for one statement, where you sounded like Gary Thorne..."So, I believe that if the Orioles are to improve their DH production, they'll need to find a good hitter or hitters to be their DH. :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-50739147261951245302013-10-19T13:33:55.393-04:002013-10-19T13:33:55.393-04:00The trouble I potentially have with an 11 man pen ...The trouble I potentially have with an 11 man pen would come to three things:<br /><br />1) Why is no one else doing this? Is anyone doing this?<br /><br />2) The Orioles' starters are not exactly known for going deep into games.<br /><br />3) That 7th man in the pen can be a useful junk arm that enables you to keep your other relievers fresh for meaningful innings.<br /><br />Maybe things have shifted too far and bullpens are overstaffed. It may be with the swing back from the offensive era we witnessed in the late 90s and early 00s that a new perspective with the pen needs to be taken. I am not exactly there yet. I'd like to see some thesis on that.<br /><br />It is a pretty fascinating question. At what point can you get rid of the 12th man on your staff.<br /><br />Personally, I'd like to see veteran starters be available for an inning of junk time in blow outs on their pen days. That probably won't happen anytime soon.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-33941864866966844832013-10-19T12:06:34.516-04:002013-10-19T12:06:34.516-04:00I really like this idea but there's no way DD/...I really like this idea but there's no way DD/Buck do this unless they land a top of the rotation starter. I don't see them using a 6man bullpen with a Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, Norris, and Gausman rotation.<br /><br />2013 would have been the year to try this. Britton and Stinson are now out of options leaving the 40 man with only TJ, Mike Belfiore and Steve Johnson to shuttle back and forth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com