tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post245449209565967685..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Improving Pitch Framing in the Orioles OrganizationJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59109023263124262002016-11-16T13:09:52.770-05:002016-11-16T13:09:52.770-05:00Jon: I'm not expecting him to have a locker wi...Jon: I'm not expecting him to have a locker with the Orioles soon either. After all, your column is about targeting minor league free agent catchers who have good framing skills and can fill in as backups as necessary.<br />And apparently Astudillo fits the bill in that regard.<br /><br />I'm a person who only took a stats course once in college and that was many years ago. And my grasp of stats and metrics is greatly diminished by the neuropathy meds I must take. <br /><br />So I'll gladly defer to you in evaluating how well the KATOH system works and its inherent flaws. I only referenced that article by Chris Mitchell because I just wanted to point out that there is another respected baseball voice out there who thinks that Astudillo might be able to help some team in a pinch. He did preface his rankings in that article by reminding readers that these types of players are usually the "absolute bottom of the barrel." And that they offer only a "glimmer of promise." <br /><br />And yes, I think we can all agree that it's unlikely that L.J. Hoes will ever be a 1.6 WAR player. But KATOH employs its own methodology (does any projection system work most of the time?) for evaluating minor and major league players. And surprisingly, their numbers say he's another one of those "glimmer of promise" players.<br /><br />I enjoyed the piece, regardless. Thanks for another interesting column!vilnius b.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02872502926590063013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-52675270970696382792016-11-16T10:27:27.760-05:002016-11-16T10:27:27.760-05:00Low minors data is not available.
My scouting con...Low minors data is not available.<br /><br />My scouting contacts say he is not a catcher and that his hitting will be greatly challenged up the ladder. We wrote him up a couple months ago.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48029084720458601702016-11-16T09:06:38.977-05:002016-11-16T09:06:38.977-05:00Could we numbers on Yermin Mercedes? He also hits...Could we numbers on Yermin Mercedes? He also hits very well Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-19451842668514877382016-11-16T08:58:56.610-05:002016-11-16T08:58:56.610-05:001) Fairly certain the minor league data comes from...1) Fairly certain the minor league data comes from a mixed model approach using pitch-by-pitch data. MLB teams have Trackman in MiL stadiums, but that information is not shared publicly.<br /><br />2) I think KATOH misrepresents itself without showing errors bars. The translation between MiL statistics and future MLB statistics is much more variable than taking previous MLB stats and pushing it forward. I mean, do you think LJ Hoes is a 1.6 WAR player? He has shown himself pretty well not to be that. With Astudillo, no only is KATOH projecting him from the minors, it is projecting him from the low minors and half a season of AA. I think he is a good target, but I would not be planning him a locker in Baltimore.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-56371250596515020072016-11-16T08:32:24.741-05:002016-11-16T08:32:24.741-05:00Where does this minor league data come from? They&...Where does this minor league data come from? They've outfitted minor league parks with the same camera/computer systems that give us PITCH/fx data?<br /><br />Anyway, interesting piece. I looked up Willams Astudillo on FG and found a link to Chris Mitchell's page on projecting minor league free agents. His KATOH system likes Astudillo as much as you do, projecting 2.2 WAR from him. You're right: we should go aggressively after him. He almost never strikes out, so at least you have a backup catcher who can make contact as well as do a great job of pitch framing.<br /><br />And Tony Sanchez is a pretty good second choice. As we've seen with more than a couple of ballplayers, sometimes after bouncing around in the minors you end up with a team that finds a way to fix your problems at the plate. He did manage double digit HRs twice when he was with the Pirates. There must have been a good reason that the Pirates used their #4 pick in the first round back in 2009. His BA with two different organizations last year was very low, but then again so was his BABIP and he did at least show he can draw a walk.<br /><br />Thanks for the piece. In addition to looking for a good backup catcher, there may be one or two OFs we should think about signing if you're using Mitchell's KATOH system.vilnius b.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02872502926590063013noreply@blogger.com