tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post1725800272303159584..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014: Catcher, Matt WietersJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89557540591172891272013-10-03T08:41:18.021-04:002013-10-03T08:41:18.021-04:00Well, if you are looking at this season then Wiete...Well, if you are looking at this season then Wieters performed as well if not slightly worse than a backup catcher based on metrics. In years past, I think you gave him that benefit as both his defense and his offense were better than even the averaged out MLB catcher. I decided not to fully go into that perspective because it would have required another 500 to 1000 words and another graphic. It already felt like the post was getting a little too long.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-40054184749845513132013-10-03T08:41:07.419-04:002013-10-03T08:41:07.419-04:00"Do you take into account the fact that Wiete..."Do you take into account the fact that Wieters catches so many innings?"<br /><br />Yes. Playing time is considered in all forms of WARMatt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-81461188089703241722013-10-02T17:28:33.213-04:002013-10-02T17:28:33.213-04:00Do you take into account the fact that Wieters cat...Do you take into account the fact that Wieters catches so many innings? Surely this adds to his value. Other starting catchers should be regressed to account for this (such as by an average backup). I wouldn't be shocked if Wieters' hitting is negatively impacted by catching so many innings. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05702340498412522622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-40913416178056007932013-10-02T12:28:30.796-04:002013-10-02T12:28:30.796-04:00My point is more that they weren't hitting wel...My point is more that they weren't hitting well, and that it wasn't simply because they were hitting too many home runs (which is a topic Nate has tackled previously) or they were swinging too early in counts. This offense was built to hit for power, and expecting them all to start working counts and walking a bunch was unrealistic. And, obviously, the huge season by Davis and the slight offensive improvements by Machado made things look better -- while the step backs by Markakis and Wieters certainly hurt. Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-1554128309261806112013-10-02T12:05:22.837-04:002013-10-02T12:05:22.837-04:00"Well, I think everyone expected home runs an..."Well, I think everyone expected home runs and doubles to fall as so much of that was tied into what appeared to be unsustainable rates with Chris Davis and Manny Machado."<br /><br />Don't forget to include Kakes(huge), Hardy(questionable) and Jones(not questionable) to that list. Wieters, Roberts, Valencia and McLouth had similar power. Flaherty improved. <br /><br />If I knew where to find Line Drive and Fly Ball distance data I would give it a look. But I brought it up because Matt asked. And I think determining which half was luckier would be interesting. <br /><br />Fair enough about catchers. It could be that defense at all positions goes a few years before hitting does. I remember looking at how elite catchers do when they get older as it relates to Wieters and finding it unfortunate. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-8114100690528173402013-10-02T10:38:41.533-04:002013-10-02T10:38:41.533-04:00Matt P - Well, I think everyone expected home runs...Matt P - Well, I think everyone expected home runs and doubles to fall as so much of that was tied into what appeared to be unsustainable rates with Chris Davis and Manny Machado. It was not exactly a well rounded team.<br /><br />"Catcher break down faster". Well, no. They don't. This has been looked at by BP, Tom Tango, BtBS, etc. It just is not exactly true. Here is one of the many pieces out there...this one by Fangraphs writers. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yadier-molinas-potential-payday-and-catcher-aging/Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-58726630880561107982013-10-02T10:18:58.433-04:002013-10-02T10:18:58.433-04:00"Playing next year at 28, he stands to have a..."Playing next year at 28, he stands to have another four to five good years left in him."<br /><br />Catchers break down quicker then other players. If his defense is already beginning to fade then I doubt he has four or five good years left in him. Maybe four or five more servicable years. We've probably already seen his best years. <br /><br />The problem with offering Wieters even 5 and 60 is that it's still a lot of money and I doubt it gets a deal done. He'll already get 8 to 10 in arbitration this year. Unless he suffers a career-ending injury he'll get another 10 next year. Not to mention it's going to be hard to pay him that plus keep Davis and pay Jones. <br /><br />It may make sense to keep him the next two years and let him go for the pick. There are always 1 WAR catchers available in FA. Not as good as Wieters but much less expensive and risky. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-49217826773677425592013-10-02T09:55:57.816-04:002013-10-02T09:55:57.816-04:00"The offense wasn't good heading down the..."The offense wasn't good heading down the stretch. I don't know why that is; maybe that's something I, or another writer, will explore further."<br /><br />There were a few problems with the Os second half performance. <br /><br />BABIP plummeted from .295(t14) to .274 (28th). HR/FB dropped from 14.1%(1) to 11% (11). Walk and Strikeout rates remained consistent. The Os hit a few fewer groundballs and a few more flyballs in the second half. Nothing that jumps out at me.<br /><br />When looking closer at hits, I noticed that Singles per Plate Appearence was reasonably the same over the first and second half. However, the number of Doubles per PA(25 percent drop) and Home Runs per PA(16 percent drop) plummeted.<br /><br />I can tell you for sure this team stopped hitting for power. Can't really tell you why though or whether it's normal.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59405156915472489872013-10-01T17:12:01.541-04:002013-10-01T17:12:01.541-04:00Good point; forgot about the post devoted to bench...Good point; forgot about the post devoted to bench spots.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-22613579518804196142013-10-01T16:58:30.998-04:002013-10-01T16:58:30.998-04:00One of the problems the Orioles face is that they ...One of the problems the Orioles face is that they are simply not a top market team and OBP is still highly paid for. When you look at it all together, home runs is actually a performance event that is not exactly paid for highly at this time. Things likely will change, but home run hitters are actually a little undervalued when they cannot get on base at a high clip.<br /><br />That being said...the platoon question with Wieters is an interesting one. However, a big roadblock is that there simply are a dearth of back up left handed hitting catchers. If Wieters performs at his career average, which is normal for catcher...then a backup lefty catcher has little purpose.<br /><br />That all said, Joe is scheduled to deal with the bench, so he might decided to go in that direction.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-88714623011571723612013-10-01T15:44:51.647-04:002013-10-01T15:44:51.647-04:00I briefly mentioned that only-right-side-hitting i...I briefly mentioned that only-right-side-hitting idea for Wieters last month here: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-struggles-of-wieters.html<br /><br />As to your other point, I don't think anyone would argue that the O's should do their best to improve some of their on-base percentage issues. I'm sure other Depot writers will be covering that topic when discussing other positions (I know I will). They were middle of the pack in OBP (t-17th), so they could use an improvement. The same goes for walking more, though with guys like Machado and Jones in the lineup, it'll be hard for that to improve much.<br /><br />Still, the O's hitting approach allowed them to score the fifth most runs (tied with Cleveland) in the majors. They had the third highest slugging percentage and had 24 more homers than the next closest team.<br /><br />The offense wasn't good heading down the stretch. I don't know why that is; maybe that's something I, or another writer, will explore further. But I think the team's hitting approach was picked apart too much. Several players are locked in to positions in 2014, and most of them are not high OBP guys. That's just the way that much of this team is constructed.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-82048572078589187862013-10-01T12:34:06.064-04:002013-10-01T12:34:06.064-04:00Catching is not an offensive position.
Jim Sundbe...Catching is not an offensive position. <br />Jim Sundberg was a valued asset wherever he played, despite a career average of about .240.<br />If Matt hits .230 with excellent defense, you're ahead of the crowd.<br />How about shutting him down from the left side?<br />Maybe if he only hits from his good side, everything would improve?<br />No mention was made of the general problems with Orioles bats(too many first pitch swings, too few walks, bad eyes) how much does that affect Matt?<br /><br />Philipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-5206397122333698412013-10-01T12:14:55.162-04:002013-10-01T12:14:55.162-04:00Have you given any thought to backup catcher? Not ...Have you given any thought to backup catcher? Not sure it matters all that much since Wieters catches so often, but I figure it's worth asking.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.com