tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post1236586535207568048..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Free Agents Will Break Your HeartJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-77909489733167611032015-01-05T22:33:55.896-05:002015-01-05T22:33:55.896-05:00As an Indians fan who welcomed Nick Swisher and Mi...As an Indians fan who welcomed Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn two years ago, I can vouch for the truthiness of this. <br /><br />Free agents tend to be older (given that they need six years of experience), so the likelihood of injury is that much greater. Plus, I tend to think that players in the last year of their contracts tend to play through the injuries that they nurse a year later (when richer).ZenRotohttp://www.zenroto.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89366068234621749012014-12-31T09:45:40.169-05:002014-12-31T09:45:40.169-05:00This is great work, MattThis is great work, MattPat Holdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01200447825435518346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-15703257775502579652014-12-30T16:08:02.662-05:002014-12-30T16:08:02.662-05:00The problem with a high-priced free agent bust is ...The problem with a high-priced free agent bust is that it locks the franchise in financially for a long time. That is not true of the top prospects. When Markakis flattened out it left the Orioles spinning their wheels for years, and he did not "bust." Neither did Wieters, except if you go by the estimates of his potential at draft time.<br /><br />What we are seeing is a failure to get true stars out of top draft picks. A damn shame that. But not as bad as $150 million dollar men not panning out. Eriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59905112995835069162014-12-30T14:46:14.452-05:002014-12-30T14:46:14.452-05:00Thanks Nate.
Ranked high school pitchers are usua...Thanks Nate.<br /><br />Ranked high school pitchers are usually better. But the sample size is tiny. There were 13 pitchers ranked between 1-10 from 2003 to 2006. Only five went to college. <br /><br />I discussed the impacts of high school vs college somewhat in this post. <br /><br />http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-impact-of-age-on-prospect-success.html<br /><br />Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-70830096396889788512014-12-30T13:16:45.711-05:002014-12-30T13:16:45.711-05:00Good stuff Matt. Any idea how the 2003-2007 pitch...Good stuff Matt. Any idea how the 2003-2007 pitching prospects shake out in terms of coming from college or high school? It may be nothing, but you mentioned that they could have been a lower ceiling/higher floor aspect going on. This made me think of one of the early 2000 A's (aka "moneyball") strategy to draft college players over high school players, and the possibility of other teams copying that strategy. <br /><br />Again, just curious and probably isn't anything there, because as you mentioned, it's possible that BA has just gotten better at ranking prospects.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05119567934749982333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-7175431168886762332014-12-30T12:32:12.194-05:002014-12-30T12:32:12.194-05:00Glad you liked it.
In my last post I noted that a...Glad you liked it.<br /><br />In my last post I noted that about 70% of wins come from players that are still under team control. There's enough talent in free agency to add 10-15 wins over the average club. That's enough to turn an average club into a wild card or division leader with average team controlled talent. But a team with only minimal team controlled talent will struggle to win 80 even if they're spending $200M. <br /><br />The scary thing is that I'd say that probably 7 of the 12 players that meet your criteria have probably performed as well as should be expected or better.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61645842283764329302014-12-30T11:40:28.522-05:002014-12-30T11:40:28.522-05:00This is really good work. I was talking with a fr...This is really good work. I was talking with a friend of mine earlier this off-season about the Cruz and Markakis deals and we went through and (non-scientifically) looked at all the 4 year or longer contracts that were signed just last off-season. Only about 20% of them can you look at, just a year later, and say "yeah, I'd take on the rest of that deal right now". <br /><br />The MLB service time/arbitration/FA system, coupled with the typical player's career arc means that a big majority of players have already reached their maximum usefulness before they get near the open market.Mike Bonsierohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15828417279641199171noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-7502611549760926862014-12-30T11:25:07.452-05:002014-12-30T11:25:07.452-05:00Really nice thorough analysis! I, like you and ma...Really nice thorough analysis! I, like you and many people, have wondered about this over the years, and now you have shown very interesting results to think about. Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com