24 June 2013

Strikezone Analysis for June 21 - 23: Orioles at Blue Jays

Series Thoughts

This was not an attractively umpired series, at home plate or in general. This was the worst called series since at least May 10 - 12 in Minnesota. Such is the way of baseball, though. The Orioles lost three in a row to the surging Jays, not because of the FBI agents on the field, but because of pitching struggles, offensive struggles, or both.

The one thing almost every manager and player asks for from an umpire is a consistent strikezone. Whether it's a wide zone or tight zone, a consistent zone can be figured out. For this series, the Blue Jays' Rzone was called correctly at rates of 88.24%, 86.36%, and 84.21%. The Orioles' Rzone was called correctly at 83.82%, 83.82%, and 84.51%. The pitching on Sunday was so awful, no strikezone was going to fix it, but one can't help but wonder if the more inconsistently called zones the Orioles had on Friday and Saturday, in close games, had an influence.

PITCHf/x Summary Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-w9dFaRvtmdERyaVpYYU1PNWNaWUpkc21yYXNDM2c&usp=drive_web

Game data after the jump, as always.

June 21, 2013: Orioles - 6, Blue Jays - 7

Tough loss for the team. Apart from losing to a hot division rival, giving up a home run to Kawasaki, the first of his MLB career, is rough. Putting in Pedro Strop in a tie game in the 9th inning is a questionable decision, although if he's on the roster, he has to be used at some point. Most difficult of all was the horrendous display of umpiring that resulted in Showalter being ejected. It's almost impossible for anyone other than the hitter, the catcher, or the home plate umpire to know whether or not Davis fouled the pitch off. However, the umpire called a foul ball and denied Chris Davis the right to run to first base on the dropped third strike, in violation of the rules. The insult to injury was that the out resulted from the home plate umpire asking the base umpires what happened three feet away from him and one hundred feet from them. :: sigh ::

Something that I have learned as I have engaged in this strikezone analysis exercise is that baseball tends to balance out, or regress to the mean, as the statisticians would say. One night's awful strikezone hurts the Orioles and the next night's helps. It's just extremely difficult to swallow the errors not of judgment, but of incompetence, when they begin directly affecting the outcome of the game, not just of a pitch.

Hernandez, Angel Real % of
Total
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Total
% of
Chances
Correct Calls 117 86.03% 118 86.76%
Incorrect Calls 19 13.97% 18 13.24%
Balls Called Balls 80 58.82% 85.11% 69 50.74% 97.18%
Strike Called Strike 37 27.21% 88.10% 49 36.03% 75.38%
Strikes Called Balls 5 3.68% 11.90% 16 11.76% 24.62%
Balls Called Strikes 14 10.29% 14.89% 2 1.47% 2.82%
Borderline - Balls 15 11.03% 40.54%
Borderline - Strikes 22 16.18% 59.46%
Baltimore Orioles Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 40 58.82% 81.63% 38 55.88% 97.44%
Strike Called Strike 17 25.00% 89.47% 25 36.76% 86.21%
Strike Called Ball 2 2.94% 10.53% 4 5.88% 13.79%
Ball Called Strike 9 13.24% 18.37% 1 1.47% 2.56%
Borderline Pitches 37 26.06%
Borderline - Balls 4 28.57%
Borderline - Strikes 10 71.43%
Calls in Favor 12 8.82% 13 9.56%
Calls Against 7 5.15% 5 3.68%
Toronto Blue Jays Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 40 58.82% 88.89% 31 45.59% 96.88%
Strike Called Strike 20 29.41% 86.96% 24 35.29% 66.67%
Strike Called Ball 3 4.41% 13.04% 12 17.65% 33.33%
Ball Called Strike 5 7.35% 11.11% 1 1.47% 3.13%
Borderline Pitches 32 28.91%
Borderline - Balls 11 47.83%
Borderline - Strikes 12 52.17%
Calls in Favor 7 5.15% 5 3.68%
Calls Against 12 8.82% 13 9.56%


June 21, 2013: Orioles - 2, Blue Jays - 4

The strikezone called by Paul Nauert was embarrassing. It was NBA referee-level embarrassing. The 85.07% Rzone correct call rate was the lowest since June 7. The 18 Rzone balls called strikes in the game ties for the 4th highest this season (21 is the highest). The 5 Tzone balls called strikes ties for the most since May 4. Despite this, the Orioles actually had more calls in their favor, 11 to 9. However, even with the large strikezone, the Orioles only had 6 out of 13 called borderline pitches called strikes. The Blue Jays had 10 out of 15 called strikes.

The bottom line is that it was a very, very large strikezone until Darren O'Day came on in the bottom of the 8th inning. O'Day threw 12 pitches. Of these, 6 were called (the batter did not swing). Of these 6, 3 were in the Rzone and correctly called strikes. Of the other 3, 1 was in the Rzone and called a ball while the other 2 were within the Tzone and were called balls, despite being consistenly called strikes all day. All 3 of the strikes that were called balls were in the Bautista at bat and would have changed the course of the plate appearance by putting O'Day in a pitcher's count instead of a hitter's count.

Nauert, Paul Real % of
Total
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Total
% of
Chances
Correct Calls 114 85.07% 120 89.55%
Incorrect Calls 20 14.93% 14 10.45%
Balls Called Balls 84 62.69% 82.35% 77 57.46% 93.90%
Strike Called Strike 30 22.39% 93.75% 43 32.09% 82.69%
Strikes Called Balls 2 1.49% 6.25% 9 6.72% 17.31%
Balls Called Strikes 18 13.43% 17.65% 5 3.73% 6.10%
Borderline - Balls 12 8.96% 42.86%
Borderline - Strikes 16 11.94% 57.14%
Baltimore Orioles Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 40 58.82% 80.00% 36 52.94% 90.00%
Strike Called Strike 17 25.00% 94.44% 23 33.82% 82.14%
Strike Called Ball 1 1.47% 5.56% 5 7.35% 17.86%
Ball Called Strike 10 14.71% 20.00% 4 5.88% 10.00%
Borderline Pitches 35 28.46%
Borderline - Balls 7 53.85%
Borderline - Strikes 6 46.15%
Calls in Favor 11 8.21% 8 5.97%
Calls Against 9 6.72% 6 4.48%
Toronto Blue Jays Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 44 66.67% 84.62% 41 62.12% 97.62%
Strike Called Strike 13 19.70% 92.86% 20 30.30% 83.33%
Strike Called Ball 1 1.52% 7.14% 4 6.06% 16.67%
Ball Called Strike 8 12.12% 15.38% 1 1.52% 2.38%
Borderline Pitches 33 28.46%
Borderline - Balls 5 33.33%
Borderline - Strikes 10 66.67%
Calls in Favor 9 6.72% 6 4.48%
Calls Against 11 8.21% 8 5.97%

June 22, 2013: Orioles - 5, Blue Jays - 13

Well, that didn't go as planned. Another poorly called game that, on paper, slightly favored the Orioles in terms of total mistake calls. Once again, the Orioles got the short end of the borderline called strike stick. But, there's only so much that can be said for a 13 - 5 game. 

Freddy Garcia was... not good. He threw 27 fastballs, 17 for strikes, and had no whiffs. He threw 18 off-speed pitches, 13 for strikes, and had one whiff. He threw 16 breaking balls, 10 for strikes, and had one whiff. That is a lot of strikes with very few swings and misses. Garcia has to fool batters to be successful and he wasn't fooling anyone.

In June, Garcia has now thrown 17.2 IP and allowed 20 ER, including an alarming 36 baserunners and 9 HR. As Garcia is providing neither quality innings or any significant quantity of innings, it may be time to seek starting pitching elsewhere.

Eddings, Doug Real % of
Total
% of
Chances
  Typical % of
Total
% of
Chances
Correct Calls 108 84.38%     114 89.06%  
Incorrect Calls 20 15.63%     14 10.94%  
Balls Called Balls 75 58.59% 82.42%   66 51.56% 98.51%
Strike Called Strike 33 25.78% 89.19%   48 37.50% 78.69%
Strikes Called Balls 4 3.13% 10.81%   13 10.16% 21.31%
Balls Called Strikes 16 12.50% 17.58%   1 0.78% 1.49%
Borderline - Balls 16 12.50% 59.26%        
Borderline - Strikes 11 8.59% 40.74%        
               
Baltimore Orioles Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
  Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 41 57.75% 82.00%   35 49.30% 97.22%
Strike Called Strike 19 26.76% 90.48%   27 38.03% 77.14%
Strike Called Ball 2 2.82% 9.52%   8 11.27% 22.86%
Ball Called Strike 9 12.68% 18.00%   1 1.41% 2.78%
Borderline Pitches 46 33.09%          
Borderline - Balls 9 64.29%          
Borderline - Strikes 5 35.71%          
Calls in Favor 11   8.59%   6   4.69%
Calls Against 9   7.03%   8   6.25%
               
Toronto Blue Jays Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
  Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 34 59.65% 82.93%   31 54.39% 100.00%
Strike Called Strike 14 24.56% 87.50%   21 36.84% 80.77%
Strike Called Ball 2 3.51% 12.50%   5 8.77% 19.23%
Ball Called Strike 7 12.28% 17.07%   0 0.00% 0.00%
Borderline Pitches 29 39.66%          
Borderline - Balls 7 53.85%          
Borderline - Strikes 6 46.15%          
Calls in Favor 9   7.03%   8   6.25%
Calls Against 11   8.59%   6   4.69%

1 comment:

  1. Why haven't they brought back KG? His xFIP was 3.76 and his SIERA was a decent 4 flat--at any rate, he's a considerable upgrade from Garcia, Britton or (God forbid) Arrieta. Perhaps if the front office was more open to advanced stats (like their division rivals down south), they'd give more starts to a guy who is sure to improve his standard stats.

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