tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post9060629018099492950..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: On Johan Santana and Why No Signing Is Risk FreeJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37511871926666278732014-03-11T14:16:57.658-04:002014-03-11T14:16:57.658-04:00Well, I think there is confusion about the probabi...Well, I think there is confusion about the probability of coming back from the type of shoulder injury Santana had and for him to perform at a level he did before his injury. There are odds associated with both of those instances. As written in the article, the figure of 1 in a 1000 is conjecture as presented and it should be taken as such.<br /><br />So what does he need to do?<br />1. He needs to come back healthy with a successful rehabilitation, which happens, but is not common. Through the injury process and rehabilitation, he needs to maintain mechanics and not injure other muscles, ligaments, etc.<br />2. He likely needs to get back into the low 90s where he was with the Twins and initially with the Mets.<br />3. He needs to retain control.<br /><br />These are three major steps. I roughly put them all at a 1 in 10 probability. As mentioned, that is conjecture. You should not take a sampling of 8 pitchers to be comprehensive. Based on my knowledge (at most doing some clinical work at the Medical Center--however, I am a toxicologist, so it really is not my specialty), I am doubtful.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-73272494187754045342014-03-11T01:47:40.149-04:002014-03-11T01:47:40.149-04:00I am not a statistics expert, but assuming compari...I am not a statistics expert, but assuming comparing Santana to pitchers with similar injuries is statistically valid, giving an example where 1 out of 8 pitchers came back to pitch effectively and using this example as the basis for approximating Santana's chance of pitching effectively as 1 out of 1000 is absurd. Even though the standard deviation would be ridiculously high with such a small sample size, the nominal probability has to be stated as 1 out of 8. The Orioles front office obviously thought his chances were much closer to 1/8 than 1/1000.Jim D.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-63375682712162509942014-03-10T22:33:06.809-04:002014-03-10T22:33:06.809-04:00One in a thousand? LOL! Santana is more accomplish...One in a thousand? LOL! Santana is more accomplished than all the pitchers on your list except Hershiser and Saberhagen. Since Saberhagen made it back, sounds like the empirical evidence suggests a one in two shot. This deal is risk free and your mincing words. If Santana makes it back to the majors, it will be at a high level. He never had a great fastball anyway so the velocity is not a huge concern. All that matters is if his slider comes back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-52650172832483893792014-03-09T11:26:35.578-04:002014-03-09T11:26:35.578-04:00Nice analysis. Thanks.Nice analysis. Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com