tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post9047673522207950448..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Can Britton Start In 2016?Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-57268356239448557122015-09-09T10:58:19.324-04:002015-09-09T10:58:19.324-04:00There are certainly a lot of Orioles players not i...There are certainly a lot of Orioles players not in their role they were drafted on have the most experience. Sounds like we don't have enough legitimate everyday players to put players in the best position to succeed. IMHOAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10275938557811642369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-9671065169282906282015-09-08T13:10:20.881-04:002015-09-08T13:10:20.881-04:00Tim - Yeah, you're right.
Actually, when I w...Tim - Yeah, you're right. <br /><br />Actually, when I was looking up starters that primarily threw sinkers I didn't look far back enough in time and just completely blew it. If I had, I would have found Masterson and Lowe whom would have been relevant to this very question. <br /><br />My fault.<br /><br />Anon - Speaking for myself, I like good comments and I thought it was an interesting question worth addressing. I'm glad you enjoyed.<br /><br />Brooks Baseball claims that Britton's sinker/two-seamer current velocity (2014 and 2015) is on average 96.55 mph.<br /><br />Brooks Baseball also claims that his sinker and four-seamer both had an average velocity of 92.8 (one was 92.81 and the other 92.82) from 2010 to 2013. It probably means he'd be throwing on average around 91 or 92 now. <br /><br />But Masterson and Lowe primarily survived on two pitches and are the primary comps. Just looking at them, I think that Britton probably would go with the changeup and would throw it relatively rarely (less than 10% of the time). I haven't looked at either of those two pitchers sufficiently and probably should to answer the question. Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-9888271194459265082015-09-08T12:36:49.684-04:002015-09-08T12:36:49.684-04:00Wow, absolutely phenomenal, I am aforementioned An...Wow, absolutely phenomenal, I am aforementioned Anon and I definitely did not expect to have my comment responded to with a strong, analytically sound, piece.<br />This definitely swayed me away from Britton as a starter, to an extent, but I still have a degree of optimism that he could be a successful, above-average major league starter.<br />First of all, I think the 2-seamer has to be considered an 80 pitch at this point. I say this because I think its pretty widely accepted (correct me if I'm wrong), that Britton is the best sinkerballer in baseball. Pair that with the fact that he's topped out at 100 on the 2-seamer this year (yesterday in new york, I believe against the second batter of the inning after Jacoby) and I think its fair to say that there is not another level above Britton's that anyone is reaching with the 2-seamer. <br />So if Britton has an 80 sinker, a 70 slider (your above comment), 65 control? (I'm looking at walk rate), as a reliever, we regress the sinker grade to what, 65/70?. Then we're left with the third pitch.<br />My biggest issue with the analysis concerns the 4-seam. I don't think there's a pitcher in baseball (again, correct me if I'm wrong), who throws their 2-seamer harder than the 4-seamer. In 2011 as a starter, Britton was throwing his 2-seamer at 92-95 if memory serves (also watched a couple old starts for reference; saw him flash at least an average changeup). So, if the 4-seamer is easier to throw harder, he might well be 94-97 with that pitch, which I think would merit at least a 60 grade, depending on movement and control (but again, isn't the 4-seamer supposed to be easier to control)? <br />Not even accounting for a potentially average changeup, that leaves us with a<br />70 2-seam, 70 slider, 60 4-seam, 50-changeup, 65-control pitcher.<br />Compare that to an older (for a top 100), pitching prospect like Steven Matz who has these grades (mlbdotcom): 65 4-seam, 50 curveball, 60 changeup, 50 control. <br />Zach Britton looks like an elite level starting prospect by that method of comparison.<br />Again, I understand that Britton is older and acclimated to his current role, but is any of that scouting grading that far from the truth?<br />Feel free to point out any error in my method, I didn't go to the same analytical/statistical depth that you did. <br />My favorite comp is CJ Wilson btw, to counter those examples you gave at the end of the piece.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-73500235192892340062015-09-08T10:12:04.553-04:002015-09-08T10:12:04.553-04:00If you throw your worst pitch of three pitches 40%...If you throw your worst pitch of three pitches 40% of the time, then the entire organization has failed you. I think relying on data will likely wind up with a bit of a survivor issue. Pitchers with horrible four seam fastballs will not be throwing them that often because they are horrible pitches. They will just throw two seam fastballs instead.Timnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90371078168544210142015-09-08T09:03:56.217-04:002015-09-08T09:03:56.217-04:00That's the problem. A four-seam fastball usual...That's the problem. A four-seam fastball usually isn't just for show. Even pitchers that use the pitch sparingly still throw it 40% of the time. Realistically, he'd be throwing it as often as he does the sinker. I suppose he could be the one starter in the majors that throws his sinker as his primary pitch but I tend to stay away from that. <br /><br />Britton's slider is far better than just average. It's a devastatingly effective pitch with two strikes. Put it this way, he's struck out 32 batters with the pitch and has only allowed 10 batters to put it into play. And those 10 batters have a .200/.200/.200 line against the pitch even though they put the ball into play. I'd have to look at what other pitchers have done but I feel like that could be a legit 70 pitch.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-39892900140640773872015-09-08T08:02:06.061-04:002015-09-08T08:02:06.061-04:00A more pressing issue is how whatever he picks up ...A more pressing issue is how whatever he picks up as a third pitch would be a pitch for show and nothing more. His sinker is a plus pitch as a starter, but his slider is average. You add a below average four seam or changeup or both, and you have a rather unimpressive pitcher who will have trouble holding down a backend rotation job. Pitchers who are effectively two pitch pitchers need plus to plus plus pitches with both of those pitches to be successful and that success is highly dependent on those pitches working all of the time. AJ Burnett with the Marlins and Blue Jays, mostly, was a prime example. Those pitches have to work or else you are in trouble, particularly, with the number of times a batter sees you.Timnoreply@blogger.com