tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post7692365330034268764..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Orioles Starting Pitching Was Not A Weak Part Of 2016 ClubJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-1813907520432301622016-11-20T07:54:45.003-05:002016-11-20T07:54:45.003-05:00What I was commenting on appeared to be a similar ...What I was commenting on appeared to be a similar vein which was a total hides the components.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59923890253278813012016-11-19T22:07:56.912-05:002016-11-19T22:07:56.912-05:00I hope you don't think I said there were no ar...I hope you don't think I said there were no areas to improve. What I said was that there were few significant paths to improvement; something that was well highlighted by the roster options presented here. Mostly limited by a thin farm and not much money to spend.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37525079772302227102016-11-19T15:54:43.614-05:002016-11-19T15:54:43.614-05:00I am unsure why you think saying a rotation was de...I am unsure why you think saying a rotation was decent is the same as saying there are no areas to improve. It means something to say that the Orioles were above average for Quality Starts in the league. Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-75811862414398089102016-11-19T14:30:05.004-05:002016-11-19T14:30:05.004-05:00Jon, yes, but you can watch Gallardo and see his v...Jon, yes, but you can watch Gallardo and see his value independent of the league and know that we could get the same value from a younger developing minor leaguer (e.g Wright) without 90% of the cost. And, yes, Shields would be a worse investment but it doesn't excuse Gallardo.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-43670216543377748452016-11-19T06:28:46.970-05:002016-11-19T06:28:46.970-05:00As some noted, these metrics are buckets with mult...As some noted, these metrics are buckets with multiple inputs. Also, keep in mind that defense is a component of bWAA. Yes, pitching was highly variable. Keep in mind thought that when you look at it in depth none of the pitchers came off as truly terrible. Some were quite bad, but when you look at all AL pitchers there are several that were far worse. It is not that you poorly perceived Gallardo's value but that maybe you were unaware of how horrible other pitchers were like James Shields.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-17653993308505977052016-11-19T03:40:05.953-05:002016-11-19T03:40:05.953-05:00A couple of comments. first, I do think that Saun...A couple of comments. first, I do think that Saunders is a good FA target. I still think Desmond would be an unbelievably good fit for the O's.<br /><br />Another comment is that what Joe R posts is a start of a good discussion. I would actually extend that the outfield and not just to differential rotation pieces but also to varied performance over time. Trumbo is the best example of this. His first half truly carried the O's. The O's outperformed their expected WAA.... why? Could it be that performance variations over time caused more benefit than the total average? For example, the SP (and Jimenez) got hot in the second half when the offense failed and the offense was hot early before the SP came together. The only constant was the bullpen which blew very few games when the O's were in control.<br /><br />These statistics are obviously, highly impacted by defensive metrics. That's why we don't come to the Obvious conclusions about what we "see" in performance. Defense is harder to "see" whereas runs scored and runs given up show up instantly. What the above graph does is to compare performance against the rest of the league for this year only - an excellent way to analyze to season. However, in determining how to proceed, you have to use a broader base of data - today's performance may not equal tomorrow's performance.<br /><br />Adam Jones may not be the best statistical CF but he is the heart of the Orioles and should not be questioned for his roster slot. The prior article about Machado's second half gives a key to next year's improvement - the same is true for Schoop. Look at Hardy's performance in the chart. People have been concerned about Hardy for the last two years and yet he put up a better than average performance. Improvement in the OF is the obvious place to look (catcher too but that may be only improvable for defense). I am hard over on the addition of Desmond and using Mancini at DH. If a LH OF is needed, Saunders seems to be a good option (lots of OPACY upside) - maybe Jon Jay to focus more on D than power.<br /><br />The problem with Worley is not that he did poorly or wouldn't be a good risk, but that the money is needed elsewhere (i.e. OF). However the pitching is upgraded, internal options and Rule 5 are going to be front and center (Wilson, Wright, Bradley, Lee, Aquino). I also think Joseph/Pena/Wynns has to be given a chance to bridge to Sisco and Sisco needs to arrive sometime next year. If Gallardo's salary can be dumped and Trumbo/Wieters are not re-signed then possibly signing Desmond and Saunders or Jay might be possible. There really are very few paths to significant improvement for next year even with more money.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90245087226913892652016-11-18T21:14:49.910-05:002016-11-18T21:14:49.910-05:00Pip: for once I disagree with you. Colby Rasmus ha...Pip: for once I disagree with you. Colby Rasmus had an extraordinary April, esp. with OBP relative to his career, but eventually he reverted to being Colby Rasmus again. Now that Reddick is with the 'Stros, I think we should pursue Michael Saunders. His LHB and Camden Yards are a nice fit.<br />Rasmus is a decent defensive OF but we'll need a bat to replace Trumbo as he almost certainly rejects that QO. Rumor has it that the Rocs are interested in him as they need a 1B and he fields that position much better than he plays the OF.<br /><br />In an unrelated note: because of the election and its aftermath, I missed out on the news that Rick Peterson is gone. Hallelujah! His one-size-fits-all philosophy almost certainly hurt the organization much more than it helped it. He changed Arrieta; he tried to change Bundy. We've seen the consequences. One can only wonder what he would've done with Chris Sale or Johnny Cueto if they had been in our organization.vilnius b.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02872502926590063013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48218734502835586812016-11-18T18:41:06.928-05:002016-11-18T18:41:06.928-05:00Edit:
"If Cashner/Morton CAN get the deals th...Edit:<br />"If Cashner/Morton CAN get the deals they got..."<br /><br />Bad typoPipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90755670352423861532016-11-18T18:38:18.600-05:002016-11-18T18:38:18.600-05:00As another aside, given the cost of pitching, have...As another aside, given the cost of pitching, have you reconsidered whether to keep Worley? His cost isn't too bad compared to both his actual performance( .1 WAR/3-ish million isn't too much of an overpay) and if Cashner/Morton can't get the deals they got, Worley is probably worth keeping.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-45233280008626362232016-11-18T17:05:13.092-05:002016-11-18T17:05:13.092-05:00Joe is correct."average" is a dangerous ...Joe is correct."average" is a dangerous term. The difference between our top three and our bottom three is astonishing. I will never forgive or understand Dan's thinking in signing Gallardo: all signs pointed towards him being terrible and unhealthy, and that's exactly what he was. <br />Anyway, about outfielders… Colby Rasmus is available now. He hits pretty well, and his defense is above average, and he probably won't be that expensive, how about picking him up?Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-20162232777626278572016-11-18T15:59:38.701-05:002016-11-18T15:59:38.701-05:00Half the Orioles' starting rotation was quite ...Half the Orioles' starting rotation was quite good, and the other half was terrible. On balance, that puts them right about average. That doesn't mean that the Orioles shouldn't be concerned about the half of their starting rotation that was terrible.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-55725075492647078772016-11-18T15:57:54.227-05:002016-11-18T15:57:54.227-05:00So keep the bullpen and Manny and trade everyone e...So keep the bullpen and Manny and trade everyone else.Anthony M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12983993846876314273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59882432848583621702016-11-18T15:33:57.986-05:002016-11-18T15:33:57.986-05:00Well yes... We love Adam Jones. Some of his highli...Well yes... We love Adam Jones. Some of his highlight bloopers are for the ages. I was in Oakland the day he caught what he thought was the third out with runners on base, turned around and threw the ball into the stands. I also remember him blowing one of those bubbles while making an over the shoulder basket catch and having the ball drop out of his glove. But... I still love watching him track a deep fly ball from shallow center. As far as JS, he makes a decent 2nd baseman, no Alomar but turns a pretty good DP. I think one of these years he will have a true breakout offensive season AKA Brady Anderson. Davis is a pretty decent 1st baseman but his mistakes are occasionally spectacular too. <br />1.) Get rid of Drake, Ondrusek, Miley, and Gallardo. The rest we can work with and pick up the next retread.<br />2.) Find a real right fielder.<br />3.) Platoon Kim and Rickard in left.<br />4.) Sign Trumbo if you can. 47 homers at DH would look pretty damned good.<br />5.) Joseph and Pena at catcher until the AllStar break then bring up Chance.<br />This should get you 90 wins.<br /><br />tim in sanjosethe musehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08817585929019348681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-3232821237608330222016-11-18T14:04:06.596-05:002016-11-18T14:04:06.596-05:00I find this quite a fascinating read, and a little...I find this quite a fascinating read, and a little more accessible for my math-lazy sports brain than most. Some of the numbers are quite startling. <br /><br />No wonder Wieters did not get a QO, no wonder the O's probably let Trumbo walk and no wonder Dan Duquette no longer feels starting pitching is a chief weakness. It's hard not to read the embedded chart as somewhat of an indictment of seemingly untouchable players (from a fan appreciation perspective) such as Adam Jones. <br /><br />Similar analyses for other teams might identify free agent or trade acquisition targets. Boss61https://www.blogger.com/profile/01045206084120458063noreply@blogger.com