tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post7676263200761607856..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Are All Divisions Created Equal? Team WAR (2002-2010)Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-3089564656036655922011-05-11T14:39:29.921-04:002011-05-11T14:39:29.921-04:00@Morgan The thing about a slugfest is that it shou...@Morgan The thing about a slugfest is that it should hurt the pitchers just as much as a pitching duel should hurt the hitters. So, I don't think that is the answer.<br /><br />Yeah, we need some good luck. I think MacPhail is a fine GM, but I do not think he is better than anyone else in the AL east. Maybe better than Cashman. Jury is still out on the Jays GM.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37058988580125093372011-05-11T14:28:28.366-04:002011-05-11T14:28:28.366-04:00@Jon
One theory. As I understand, WAR is based u...@Jon<br /><br />One theory. As I understand, WAR is based upon runs above replacement. Is that correct? The AL East tends to have more slug-fests, the West has more tight, low scoring games.<br /><br />So A-Rod hitting 2 grand slams in a 12-7 laugher (or in a 12-14 loss!) would way get credit for WAR than Justin Smoak hitting a 2-run shot in a 3-1 King Felix win. In reality, their contribution to the win is fairly equal.<br /><br />There needs to be some way to weight WAR relative to how low scoring the game was. Is there?<br /><br />BTW, I grew up back east worshipping Brooks, Boog, Blair, Palmer etc., so good luck!Morgan Conradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963409751532704983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-85508690555711407682011-05-11T14:17:22.348-04:002011-05-11T14:17:22.348-04:00@Jon
Yes, it seems like WAR should somehow corres...@Jon<br /><br />Yes, it seems like WAR should somehow correspond to division records. If it doesn't, that's interesting in itself. The Angels have often beaten their Pythagorean expectation, and things like that could explain a small difference. However, I don't see how WAR can call the AL-West the weakest division in 2002, when it had a net +86 record! Something is badly off.<br /><br />Looking at just AL-East games vs. AL-West is reasonable, but adding in games vs. AL-Central is more complete. It's true that the interleague and "rivalry" games will have an effect, but I'd think that they would tend to average out over 10 years.Morgan Conradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963409751532704983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-86056262670536745972011-05-11T13:43:33.283-04:002011-05-11T13:43:33.283-04:00@Morgan - Truth be told, I cannot think of the las...@Morgan - Truth be told, I cannot think of the last time I saw Sportscenter. Maybe 2001 or so. Of course, this does not mean I am without unintentional bias. So what makes WAR inaccurate? I may be wrong, but wouldn't all WAR gained within a division be equaled out by WAR lost? Maybe I am thinking about that wrong. It won't zero out by definition of WAR, but it should be even.<br /><br />Anyway, just blindly picking out a year . . . 2004 . . . Al East vs AL West games result in a .500 record. How is this worse than your data? Do you think it is a power issue? I'm also not sure how you are defining slight and other terms you are using. I really appreciate the feedback.<br /><br />@Bryan - That certainly is an issue. If a team thinks of themselves as 10 wins away as oppsed to 15 wins away, their approach may indeed differ. Wins are more valuable the closer you get to competing.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-33219991363939595772011-05-11T13:27:03.627-04:002011-05-11T13:27:03.627-04:00Morgan, what your analysis is missing is that the ...Morgan, what your analysis is missing is that the bottom teams in a division don't determine its strength. If you moved the Orioles from the East to the West, you'd be making the East stronger and the West weaker by your method, but it wouldn't get appreciably easier or harder for another team to win either division.<br /><br />It's very clear that the West had the strongest top two in the early part of the decade (really only through '02) and the East had the strongest top two since then (perhaps excluding '06). If you're not among the two best teams in your division, you can't make the playoffs, so it's been much more of an uphill climb for the Orioles in the East than it would have been in the West, especially since the decline of the Mariners.Bryanhttp://replacementlevel.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-57336442781029415712011-05-11T13:20:45.497-04:002011-05-11T13:20:45.497-04:00I really like this analysis. I think the obvious ...I really like this analysis. I think the obvious thing missing here is the Orioles' willingness to be aggressive from a personnel standpoint. Knowing from day one they had no chance to win their division in each of the last 10+ years, they've had little incentive to make one or two key trades or FA signings to put them over the top. If they were in the AL Central this year, for example, they may see themselves as a competitor and rather than throwing money at temporary solutions like Guerrero and Derrek Lee, they could have gone after Crawford or Cliff Lee. Then if they were in contention in July, they'd be in a position to add pieces, rather than trading veterans away for more prospects.<br /><br />I understand your premise that they probably wouldn't have won 80 games any year in the last decade anyway, but they might have at least *thought* they could win 85, and sometimes that's all it takes to get better.Bryanhttp://replacementlevel.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-4953796279241287252011-05-11T13:14:53.231-04:002011-05-11T13:14:53.231-04:00Your perception that the AL East is the strongest ...Your perception that the AL East is the strongest division is based upon watching too much ESPN. An objective measure is to compute the total wins-losses for the division. By measuring this way, games within the division do not count. You measure it's strength vs. the other divisions.<br /><br />For example, in 2001, he AL West, in total, was 88 games over .500. The AL East was 42 games *below* .500.<br /><br />In 2002, AL West was +86, the AL East was -16.<br /><br />In 2003, AL West was +26, AL East was +32. Pretty equal, especially since the AL East has 1 more team, so the net plus per team is almost identical. I'll call this a tie.<br /><br />In 2004, +22 vs. +20<br />In 2005, +14 vs. +12<br /><br />A slight edge to the west, esp. since they have 1 less team so the plus per team is higher.<br /><br />2006, +32 vs. -8<br />2007, +18 vs. +6<br /><br />Clear win for AL West.<br /><br />2008, -17 vs. +61. Finally, a year where the AL East is better!<br /><br />2009 +40 vs. +32 AL West wins.<br />2010 -24 vs. +52. AL East wins.<br /><br />In conclusion, through the last decade, the AL East was only better in two years. The AL West was clearly better in 5 years, and slightly better 2 years, with 2003 a tie.Morgan Conradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963409751532704983noreply@blogger.com