tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post732719387705755791..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: O's Acquire Francisco Rodriguez, Get Marginally BetterJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-50518342189549547192013-07-27T17:11:00.544-04:002013-07-27T17:11:00.544-04:00Right...but how much better is Rodriguez than O...Right...but how much better is Rodriguez than O'Day or Hunter? How many more runs is Rodriguez saving over the course of 25 innings in the 7th or 8th innings over those other two. So, let's say O'Day and Hunter are 4.00 ERA pitchers...they will give up 11 runs over 25 innings a piece. Let's say that Rodriguez is a 3.00 ERA pitcher...he will give up 8 runs over 25 innings. So, is a "big deal" 3 runs in high leverage situations and maybe 6-7 runs in low leverage situations (if we have a 4 ERA pitcher take over for a 6 ERA pitcher in low leverage situations or in other words when the outcome of the game is not in doubt)?<br /><br />I have difficulty seeing how under those conditions (which is probably the best possible outcome situation) how useful of an addition he is.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-85216893164380820082013-07-27T10:39:57.618-04:002013-07-27T10:39:57.618-04:00And that's the real question. If you believe t...And that's the real question. If you believe that Rodriguez is better than O'Day, Hunter et al, then it's a potentially big deal. If you don't, then it's not. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-57644709486650594332013-07-26T22:15:37.203-04:002013-07-26T22:15:37.203-04:00Even if Rodriguez pitches in critical innings, it ...Even if Rodriguez pitches in critical innings, it puts similar pitchers in low leverage situations.<br /><br />I don't really see much difference between him, O'Day, and Hunter. From that viewpoint, the only impact is better pitching in junk innings whoever that junk pitcher becomes.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61259111417816011252013-07-26T21:45:49.044-04:002013-07-26T21:45:49.044-04:00Except, Jon, it's not just an improvement over...Except, Jon, it's not just an improvement over junk innings. If Rodriguez becomes the eighth-inning reliever, (assuming that he's an improvement) then this improves the team in critical innings. This might happen. If you believe that Rodriguez will pitch well, then you make the trade.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-76182221514546350922013-07-26T17:16:24.898-04:002013-07-26T17:16:24.898-04:00K-rate is really not as informative as the batting...K-rate is really not as informative as the batting average. Either way...both are less important than the scouting on him. He had a slight chance to be special. If he could have stuck at third (unlikely) it would have been an easier path. So, we should not simply dismiss Delmonico. There are skills there.<br /><br />Re: Rodriguez. There is nothing definite about relief pitching. K rate for relievers also is not always the best way to measure them. Finally, those SIERA numbers are basically the same. Again...junk innings are what is going to be affected.<br /><br />You got rid of a second tier talent for improved junk inning relief. Second tier talent individually is unlikely to turn into something, but you can stack that value and get something more useful and impressive that will greatly impact the team in the future.<br /><br />So, eh, improving junk innings just is not a big deal to me. Rodriguez, baseball-wise, might be a solid move in a vacuum, but is pretty worthless when you consider the specific situation the Orioles are in.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-1864787245816111392013-07-26T09:40:48.861-04:002013-07-26T09:40:48.861-04:00Delmonico had a 22.4% K rate in SINGLE A BALL--I c...Delmonico had a 22.4% K rate in SINGLE A BALL--I can't see him being much more than a three-true-outcome hitter at best.<br /><br />Meanwhile, K-Rod is still striking out 25.7% of his batters faced--granted, not as good as his career rate of 29.3%, but still excellent, and much better than Hunter or Matusz. Speaking of which, K-Rod's 3.34 SIERA is actually better than Hunter (3.42) and Matusz (3.60). He'll definitely be an upgrade over those two.Triple Rnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-94465126331601142013-07-26T09:10:15.991-04:002013-07-26T09:10:15.991-04:00Well...how much does Rodriguez help out now? You ...Well...how much does Rodriguez help out now? You are replacing Jairo Ascencio and his ilk on the roster. That means that Rodriguez or Hunter will be taking over those 20-30 innings that don't matter because the team is far ahead or far behind. A small fraction of those innings will actually be important ones. So, you deal away a low probability minor leaguer (as they almost all are) for the ability to control bleeding in a blowout or bending in a favorable blowout in exchange for someone who might be useful in the future.<br /><br />To me, it just is a pointless move because you can get someone cheaper for those junk innings. Additionally, you want to stack marginal prospects to get more meaningful, long term pieces. For instance, does Delmonico for Rodriguez make more sense than Delmonico and another second tier prospect for Veras (if one needs to go on the relief side of things)? With Veras you get next year, too.<br /><br />I just don't see in the near term or long term it being of much value to the team. Now, if the Orioles had one or two less right handers then it would make sense to me that the team really needs this piece. However, I just don't see it here.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-10380800550473314162013-07-25T11:52:22.661-04:002013-07-25T11:52:22.661-04:00Joe: It probably helps that Rodriguez is a "p...Joe: It probably helps that Rodriguez is a "proven closer" -- that matters to a lot of people. Fans like saves.<br /><br />Paul: Yes, that's true. But Rodriguez doesn't help out THAT much, plus they're selling low on Delmonico, in my view. But again, hopefully it works out.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-53267607850147228572013-07-25T11:14:03.472-04:002013-07-25T11:14:03.472-04:00Matt you are right this is a risking trade. Howev...Matt you are right this is a risking trade. However, the question is how many people make it from single A ball to make the majors. He was a prospect that may have helped in the future. Rodriguez helps out now.Paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-34933795577734571922013-07-25T11:12:54.875-04:002013-07-25T11:12:54.875-04:00For what it's worth, I was in the press box at...For what it's worth, I was in the press box at Norfolk's Harbor Park when the trade was announced. The "amateurs" (including myself) thought that the Orioles gave up far too much; the "professionals" thought that it was a good deal for the Orioles. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.com