tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5878756603798293036..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Vladimir Guerrero Signs 6 Years Too LateJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-55723801669317403102011-02-05T08:43:30.447-05:002011-02-05T08:43:30.447-05:00I think that is a solid take on it.
One thing to ...I think that is a solid take on it.<br /><br />One thing to reiterate . . . assuming that there is 8MM to spend, I have a difficult time seeing how it is better to spend it on Vlad than to spend it on draft picks and international amateurs. Vlad is just not going to be worth anything beyond this year. He might bring you a C+ prospect in a deal. If he qualifies for free agent compensation (if that still exists in 2012), why would you offer arbitration. He had a difficult time getting 8MM this year...how can he up his price in free agency? He cannot, so he is likely to agree to any arbitration.<br /><br />It has been an interesting reaction to the deal. All of the O's players have released very positive statements (you would not expect otherwise, but I also think they mean it . . . as Joe Morgan showed, great baseball players do not equal great baseball analysts). About 80-90% of O's fans are ecstatic about the signing. Then you have the old school writers who all love it. Finally, the advanced statistical writers all find it confusing and a poor move.<br /><br />I'm used to be on the side of its-not-as-bad-as-you-think and now this past offseason I seem to be on the its-not-as-good-as-you-think.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-35492593865274647052011-02-04T23:08:31.533-05:002011-02-04T23:08:31.533-05:00Your friendly Dallas/Ft Worth O's fan, again!
...Your friendly Dallas/Ft Worth O's fan, again!<br /><br />Like most, my first reaction was "8 million?". As a sports dork, almost more than anything, I wish I could be a fly on the wall when conversations take place like the one McPhail must have had with Vlad's agent. Once the Napoli for Franciso trade went down, it appeared pretty obvious(I thought?) that the market for Vlad shrunk down to one team. Why the O's had to pay this much perplexes me, and the only real explanation I can think of is they wanted to pay a premium to get him on the roster now versus waiting for a spring training injury to possibly drive up the price.<br /><br />In any case, Vlad does bring some power, some lineup depth, and a positive verteran presence. On the other hand, he takes away AB's from Pie and Reimold, has a fairly poor baserunning IQ, and is more than likely to peak well before the AS break, if at all.<br /><br />With that list of pros and cons, I just wonder if this was simply money spent for the sake of having money to spend. If Vlad has a strong first half, and the trade market for his services yields a solid prospect or two, perhaps it's a good investment, but apart from that I can't imagine a scenario where the ROI on this deal ends up in the O's favor.<br /><br />I hate to make every comparison about the Rangers, but, I do live in D/FW and follow them pretty closely so I guess it's the best I've got. Looking at how this deal unfolded, I am confident that there is zero chance John Daniels makes this deal given the O's circumstances, and by his standards, this deal is a year too late. Again, I'll reserve full judgement until mid-season to see if McPhail can flip Vlad to a AL contender looking for a DH, but until then I say the O's paid at least 5 million dollars too much for about 50 games of decent baseball.<br /><br />-spcAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com