tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5767241699374249162..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Chris Tillman Is Not UnderratedJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-30070016867234683342017-02-07T14:34:32.743-05:002017-02-07T14:34:32.743-05:00Yes, I remember the article. I thought your solut...Yes, I remember the article. I thought your solution was unneeded.<br /><br />You are stuck on framing it as an ERA issue as the red line. I think you miss what happens later or wind up creating a rather convoluted formula by having to move the goal line.<br /><br />Overall, I think a lot of thinking about QS might be too much thinking about QS.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-10012008311952064212017-02-07T12:27:10.358-05:002017-02-07T12:27:10.358-05:00You probably wouldn't want a 6 IP, 3 ER start ...You probably wouldn't want a 6 IP, 3 ER start each time out. Such a pitcher would have a 4.50 ERA, also known as bad, and his team would win 48.4% of his starts presuming an average offense. That's a 78-79 win team. A 6 IP, 3 ER outing isn't good despite the common wisdom. I mean, are you happy with starters that have a 4.50 ERA?<br /><br />A starter going 5 innings and allowing 2 runs each start would have a 3.60 ERA (also known as above average). His team would win 57.8% of his starts (roughly a 93-94 win pace) and would presumably have a very tired bullpen. <br /><br />I wrote a quality start post for this site nearly three years ago. Fewer runs allowed is more important than innings pitched. If you go five innings and allow zero runs, then that should be a quality start.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-82422930815505467572017-02-07T04:18:50.228-05:002017-02-07T04:18:50.228-05:00To be honest, if you go 6 IP with 3 or fewer runs ...To be honest, if you go 6 IP with 3 or fewer runs scored, you almost always pitch a 7th inning. Guys are not hitting 6 and 3 exactly. I believe average ERA for a quality start is about 1.50.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-26359863796454159592017-02-06T20:25:13.645-05:002017-02-06T20:25:13.645-05:00Honestly, I think a quality start should be 7IP.Honestly, I think a quality start should be 7IP.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48989576289032586882017-02-06T03:29:02.718-05:002017-02-06T03:29:02.718-05:00Use our search feature, I wrote that post three or...Use our search feature, I wrote that post three or four years ago. Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-12980184713481804092017-02-05T17:36:33.433-05:002017-02-05T17:36:33.433-05:00Tillman seems more consistent than other "goo...Tillman seems more consistent than other "good" pitchers. It seems that he strings along many quality starts in a row, which may contribute to the team's high winning percentage in his starts. Basically, you know what you're going to get in a Tillman start and that may provide a competitive advantage. Compare that to Ubaldo, who may be brilliant or stink the joint up on any given night. I'd rather see the three runs, 6 IP line each time out, even though it never adds up to an amazing stat line at the end of the season. This is especially so for Baltimore, which can usually be relied upon to put four or five runs on the board and close a game with solid relief pitching. So, here's the test of my theory: does Tillman's performance vary less than other starters of his ability? Does consistency of performance correlate with team winning percentage? OK, Matt and Jon, off you go and find out.John Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01258086312217768014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-55653962244767815752017-02-05T12:28:17.682-05:002017-02-05T12:28:17.682-05:00I remember Matt Keogh or Rick Langford had an apal...I remember Matt Keogh or Rick Langford had an apalling Record of unsuccess with the As. I think one or the other went 0-22 and 79 or 80 I think.<br />I mention Jon Matlack because I was a fan of the Rangers at the time, and because he pitched incredibly well all that season and had nothing to show for it.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-9525228293452385372017-02-05T07:43:48.801-05:002017-02-05T07:43:48.801-05:00Appreciate the comment, and I can take criticism. ...Appreciate the comment, and I can take criticism. The feeling for me is more frustration that wins and winning percentage are still be used as a major argument in favor of a pitcher. Maybe I should have explained that more.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-79503819235729321462017-02-05T06:29:40.741-05:002017-02-05T06:29:40.741-05:00You can also find pitchers with terrible ERAs and ...You can also find pitchers with terrible ERAs and great team wins numbers. Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-84339589793809472592017-02-04T21:08:24.587-05:002017-02-04T21:08:24.587-05:00Really? Matlack? I thought the law was that if you...Really? Matlack? I thought the law was that if you wanted to talk about pitchers being let down by their teams you brought up '87 Nolan Ryan (led the league in ERA and Ks and went 8-16).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12364443498899374049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-60144520519378223522017-02-04T20:29:42.346-05:002017-02-04T20:29:42.346-05:00A bad pitcher will be pulled from the game with h...A bad pitcher will be pulled from the game with his team down. Even if his team rallies to win, that does not benefit him, but his presence makes their job more difficult. <br />A good pitcher is easily let down by a bad team. As an example, I remember 1978 Jon Matlack went 15-12 for the Rangers with a 2+ ERA, because the Rangers never scored for him.<br />A bullpen can only minimize damage.<br />I'm not trying to paint Tillman as an Ace at all.<br />The point I'm trying to make, and I'm sorry I'm being cumbersome, is that even though pitcher wins might not mean much, team wins in pitcher starts do, and Tillman's 64% team win % means, probably, that he is a better pitcher than Jiminez at 55% team wins and Miley/Gallardo at whatever.<br />That's all I was trying to say.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-8400532696975254352017-02-04T20:02:00.746-05:002017-02-04T20:02:00.746-05:00Tillman will earn a solid mid rotation contract. S...Tillman will earn a solid mid rotation contract. Something like 4/60 or 5/75.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59444792037227833012017-02-04T20:01:15.167-05:002017-02-04T20:01:15.167-05:00Welcome to the site.Welcome to the site.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-52951161144503777532017-02-04T20:01:00.160-05:002017-02-04T20:01:00.160-05:00I do not understand your first paragraph. A good t...I do not understand your first paragraph. A good team certainly will help a bad pitcher get wins because a good team can prevent runs from being scored or provide great run support. If you are talking only about bullpens, a good bullpen will certainly help a bad pitcher.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-81550722044317197112017-02-04T19:35:04.411-05:002017-02-04T19:35:04.411-05:00This seems to be written with an unnecessarily &qu...This seems to be written with an unnecessarily "I'm smarter than you", arrogant tone. I would've enjoyed reading it much more had the tone been different. Just some constructive criticismAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-38557294282255277612017-02-04T18:45:13.771-05:002017-02-04T18:45:13.771-05:00It would seem that a bad team will hinder a good p...It would seem that a bad team will hinder a good pitcher. A good team, however, can't help a bad pitcher, but will help a good one.<br />I realize that winning is a team effort and not the sole indicator of pitcher quality, but the quality of the pitcher should certainly affect team wins.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29752720191210681912017-02-04T12:52:50.894-05:002017-02-04T12:52:50.894-05:00What do we think of an extension? On one hand, I t...What do we think of an extension? On one hand, I think it seems pretty risky to extend a pitcher who doesn't have impressive peripherals and flyball tendencies(1.2 HR/9) on the wrong side of 30. On the other hand, it seems as though Joe Gunkel is the only young pitcher in the system close to making an impact. Maybe Chris Lee? Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson have not been good and look nothing more than #5 starters at this point. Matt Bennetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15003107687099334657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-79015346439489095062017-02-04T09:25:55.956-05:002017-02-04T09:25:55.956-05:00I am unsure why people think team wins would be mo...I am unsure why people think team wins would be more representative of a pitcher's ability than pitcher wins. That idea really confuses me.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-34516159944156763012017-02-04T09:21:28.910-05:002017-02-04T09:21:28.910-05:00That made me laugh, and I do appreciate and even a...That made me laugh, and I do appreciate and even agree with the sentiment, it was a hurried reply,<br />But after I read the article I think my point remains valid. <br />As always, I really appreciate you guys and enjoy your articles. And I do read them all the way through.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-75956501968346922692017-02-04T06:18:32.197-05:002017-02-04T06:18:32.197-05:00The implication doesn't change, but thanks for...The implication doesn't change, but thanks for taking the time to reply to an article you haven't finished reading yet.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48722551674684976002017-02-04T02:50:17.929-05:002017-02-04T02:50:17.929-05:00Jimenez was 55% over past two years and Gausman wa...Jimenez was 55% over past two years and Gausman was 45%. That was in a tweet I put out. <br /><br />I imagone that the two track very similarly. I would not think it much of a hang up using either as a surrogate.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-38535497022236407432017-02-03T21:32:50.742-05:002017-02-03T21:32:50.742-05:00Pitcher starts has nothing to do with pitcher wins...Pitcher starts has nothing to do with pitcher wins.<br />Steve was saying that the team had won 64% of Tillman's starts, not that HE had won 64% of his starts. And that is a very good thing, and pretty indicative of a good pitcher(what percentage of Jimenez/Miley/Gallardo starts did we win?)<br />I haven't yet read the rest of the article yet but it seems as if you are rebutting a nonexistent stance.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-36672137057028899172017-02-03T14:58:47.158-05:002017-02-03T14:58:47.158-05:00Yeah, I don't really have a NEED to feel he...Yeah, I don't really have a NEED to feel he's underrated per se, just maybe underappreciated because he is not the "ace" that we want him to be. It would be pretty exciting to have some high quality pitching to go along with even 80% of the hitting we have. Tillman is at least currently the lead in our lineup if not an actual ace. And he carries that weight pretty well. I sure would like to see some of the prospects be ready to take the place of the back end. I would like someone like Wright, Wilson, Verrett, Aquino, or Lee step up and take some innings from Jimenez and Miley (and ease the burden on Bundy). How much worse could they be? Were Wright and Wilson really any worse than Miley or 1st half Ubaldo? Would Verrett or Aquino or Lee be?Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-68127751397030408422017-02-03T11:37:23.221-05:002017-02-03T11:37:23.221-05:00We've discussed plenty on this site why Tillma...We've discussed plenty on this site why Tillman and others (like Miguel Gonzalez) consistently beat their FIP. Much of the research has been done by Matt P. and Jon, looking at things like performance with runners on base, pitch sequencing, location, etc. Even when not factoring in FIP, he's been good, but far from great. I don't see how that makes him underrated.<br /><br />The same can be said for why the O's outperform their projections. There's some kind of formula here: hitting on undervalued/overlooked players, a very good bullpen, very good infield defense, trying to grab QO players, Rule 5 picks, freeing up money by trading comp. balance picks and international bonus slots, etc. All of these have not been successful, and I'm still leaving out some. But you're right. If you're big on thinking that Tillman is underrated, you very likely have strong feelings about how other fans and baseball writers view the Orioles. I just think Tillman gets more than a fair share of his credit.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-13098128085799808322017-02-03T11:34:36.964-05:002017-02-03T11:34:36.964-05:00In 2016, Orioles won 5 more than Pythagorean win e...In 2016, Orioles won 5 more than Pythagorean win expectation would expect. In 2015, they won 2 less than PWE. I think a little too much gets placed on that. 2012 and 2014 were exceptional years and fuel most of the "this team beats the odds" perspective. Maybe there is something there, but it makes one wonder why it is not there in other years.<br /><br />Pitch to win has been quite effectively shown to not be a thing. Pitchers pitch as best as they can, which is a must because any batter can take you deep.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com