tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5460934377763951636..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Four Ways to Define an Ace (None are Orioles)Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-11295189218634085222017-05-24T17:55:55.169-04:002017-05-24T17:55:55.169-04:00Out of curiosity, for what period of time would Cl...Out of curiosity, for what period of time would Cliff Lee have been considered a top 5 pitcher?Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01783545074768724551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-58403654358625330852017-05-10T10:30:47.655-04:002017-05-10T10:30:47.655-04:00Well...the Orioles part is that no one fits in the...Well...the Orioles part is that no one fits in the definitions used here.<br /><br />Use of relievers is not a useful point to explore. Compare between eras. By doing that within an era.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-58821257858132817742017-05-10T07:17:03.674-04:002017-05-10T07:17:03.674-04:00OK, Jon, I understand. But we readers are here at...OK, Jon, I understand. But we readers are here at Camden Depot not the Baseball Prospectus and we're here because of Oriole baseball, too. I would like to know, once a pitcher is an "ace" at least by the Raubritter definition such as Ubaldo from 2008-2010, is he always an ace? No one thought the O's were buying an ace with Ubaldo but he was bought after a year where he seemed to pitch like an ace again. And you refer to Tillman as a putative #2 which I think has usually been correct even though he has had down years but the "talk" has been around whether he is an ace or not. If you look back at careers like Palmer's you'll find periods where he was not very ace-like especially due to injuries, but no one ever really doubted that he was an ace. With today's pitchers, because of the philosophy changes in how relievers are used, I'm not sure WAR is enough to determine ace performance. Seems like length of starts and stopper performance and strength of competition (pitching against another team's ace) and things like that should also contribute a pitcher being deemed an ace.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-15283127694562900042017-05-09T08:23:57.153-04:002017-05-09T08:23:57.153-04:00Tillman has fluctuated between being a 2 slot pitc...Tillman has fluctuated between being a 2 slot pitcher and a near replacement level arm. When one thinks of an ace, one thinks of not only more stability but also as the lows not being so catastrophically low.<br /><br />When considering projected performance, the approach becomes a bit more difficult. I could see a technique using partial reap world and then a season or two of projections, but that was outside of the scope of this effort.<br /><br />I had more interest in the nature of ace performance instead of how far one has to go to be able to include an Oriole. It should be taken into consideration how many pitchers are better, arguably better, or have had much better experiences than Orioles pitching. I think one of the main themes of this club has been how they are able to do so much with glaring holes.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-9115839826695138342017-05-09T07:59:36.322-04:002017-05-09T07:59:36.322-04:00So wouldn't you say that a pitcher with Ace po...So wouldn't you say that a pitcher with Ace potential is one that might be less than a certain age but have given at least one (if not two non-consecutive) seasons at 4+ WAR. I would be interested to know who might fit into this category. Another category might be pitchers with little MLB experience but can be projected or extrapolated from partial seasons to get 4+ WAR. I think that's where you start finding the Bundy's and Gausman's of the world. I would like to know where the most prominent O's pitchers fit - maybe historical ones, too. Tillman's put up two 3.9s and a 2.8 in the last five years. That's not chicken feed. Gausman was at 4.2 last year and Bundy is already at 1.9 in less than half a season. Ubaldo was a Raubritter from 2008-2010. This year's pitching staff is good with the potential to be great with continued excellence from Gausman and Bundy and standard performances from Tillman and Miley and anything positive from Ubaldo.Rogernoreply@blogger.com