tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5094022974640522461..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Why Chris Davis Is Not A Rally-KillerJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-7047152448531634352016-04-14T10:00:03.899-04:002016-04-14T10:00:03.899-04:00No worries Jon! I atoned for my sins ;-)No worries Jon! I atoned for my sins ;-)Ryan Pollackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17153459121074222005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-91948465800959230822016-04-13T11:11:05.909-04:002016-04-13T11:11:05.909-04:00"I'm not sure that having that one or mor..."I'm not sure that having that one or more guys with the big SLG isn't better"<br /><br />Maybe. I'm sure someone has already done the analysis. Bryce has an excellent OBP and SLG. <br /><br />The weights I threw out were just an example and not meant to mean anything per se.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-81350229186143640982016-04-13T10:43:21.640-04:002016-04-13T10:43:21.640-04:00"When they needed it" is more about inci..."When they needed it" is more about incidence rate and bundling. As I mentioned before WPA assumes all players outside of the batter are equal. In terms of generalities, a .360/.380 hitter is not equal to a .340/.500 hitter. It would be something more like a .290/.500 hitter. OBP is worth a lot, but .020 of it is not typically going to be equivalent to .12 of slugging.<br /><br />Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-10227932746474438442016-04-13T10:13:12.820-04:002016-04-13T10:13:12.820-04:00Matt, I'm not sure I agree. I watch the Brave...Matt, I'm not sure I agree. I watch the Braves as well as the O's and watching them get rally after rally getting one, two, or three men on base and still not being able to score, I'm not sure that having that one or more guys with the big SLG isn't better. Now the Braves may be a bad example, but, at the current time, they are somewhat opposite of the O's - decent OBA, no SLG. The O's might squander a few rallies by striking out but my gut tells me that one guy hitting it out of the park makes for better rallies than relying on three guys to hit it between 2nd and SS. I'd like to see a hypothetical analysis of having a lineup filled with .280/.360/.380 vs one filled with .260/.340/.500 (although, I think .240/.340/.500 might be more reasonable). Last night, the Nats beat the Braves because Bryce could hit a big double when needed and the Braves got the bases loaded with no outs and couldn't score. One superstar has more value than a bunch of good players. Just look at the O's corner OF situation.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-8577624194571666202016-04-13T09:07:39.657-04:002016-04-13T09:07:39.657-04:00Yeah, I think that SwStr is largely useless becaus...Yeah, I think that SwStr is largely useless because it doesn't take fouls into account. <br /><br />The real question is whether a high OBP or SLG is more valuable in this setting. Logic suggests that OBP is more important but the question is whether there's a relationship. For example is a guy with a .280/.360/.380 line a better option then a guy with a .260/.340/.500 line?Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32096754771435602242016-04-13T07:43:22.454-04:002016-04-13T07:43:22.454-04:00Yeah...I let you die on the vine there.
One note...Yeah...I let you die on the vine there. <br /><br />One note, which I think is minor, is that WPA is based on an average offense. It does not consider specifics of a situation player for player. In other words, striking out with Billy Hamilton at first is different than Wieters.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-91575413881576113192016-04-13T07:22:08.604-04:002016-04-13T07:22:08.604-04:00LOL. Good article, Ryan. It really is emotionall...LOL. Good article, Ryan. It really is emotionally painful watching some of Chris' swings and misses in crucial situation. I think that what the gut tells us is that he is such a productive player in a high leverage part of the lineup that our expectations are driven higher than they should be given the statistics involved. And we remember the disappointments more than the successes. But watching Davis Crush one to win a game is an extremely satisfying moment just as watching Trumbo exit the stadium over the Green Monster last night was epic, too.Rogernoreply@blogger.com