tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5019324228260524962..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #3): Shake It UpJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-77605437568422923972017-10-21T16:55:52.887-04:002017-10-21T16:55:52.887-04:00I agree that DD has not a solid if not spectacular...I agree that DD has not a solid if not spectacular job. I think Gary Rajsich has done a great job, the Orioles have drafted well under him (with the exception of 2014 when they didn't pick til the 3rd round). It's hard to have a good farm system without selling off every once in a while or taking advantage of the international market. I think the current Orioles system is in the 10-15 range, thanks to quality drafting.btwrestler119https://www.blogger.com/profile/13114527219746054252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-74450793852845191242017-10-20T07:02:15.455-04:002017-10-20T07:02:15.455-04:00I have been a regular critic of his as evidenced b...I have been a regular critic of his as evidenced by the site and the tweets. He has made terrible moves like his attempts to secure the fringe market by handing out 40 man slots to undeserving free agents early on. Or picking up the scraps, though Cruz and Alvarez were useful. Or parading through countless optionable unwanted fringe starting pitchers.<br /><br />The flip side to that would be that MacPhail left him with a shallow minor league system. Budgets were often tight and the biggest blip in the payroll was an Angelos ordained Davis contract. It is certainly worth pondering whether a conventional approach like MacPhail's would have eventually worked or if the club would have had playoff experience if LaCava or another luminary came in and was able to do a rebuild.<br /><br />Personally, I think Duquette benefitted from a good MLB core that MacPhail put together. He then found ways to cheaply complement that core to prevent too many negative contributions (something MacPhail could not figure out). In tough spots with imperfect clubs, he dealt out good second tier prospects to improve the team with varying success.<br /><br />If he left the club this year, he hands over a team with rough the same talent as what he got and a minor league system that is deeper but without a top tier prospect like Machado or Bundy. It is a minot league system that is deeper on position players and relievers, but not really starters.<br /><br />So what one might see as foolish moves, I think we're often desperate ones trying to find value where other clubs largely were not looking without a great methodology about why he should be looking there too.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-79303188240585045042017-10-20T00:39:41.929-04:002017-10-20T00:39:41.929-04:00It's easy to look at things like waiting so fa...It's easy to look at things like waiting so far into the offseason that every worthwhile FA is already gone, releasing Bridwell and Gonzalez, trading Davies, signing Ubaldo, Gallardo and Alvarez, giving away draft picks to save negligible contracts, and many another wildly unjustifiable decision and suggest that he perhaps hasn't done a great job.<br />I actually give him credit for structuring the Davis contract well, but his tenure has been loaded with head scratching moves that were foolish the day they were made.Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61763552306059698112017-10-19T12:24:56.726-04:002017-10-19T12:24:56.726-04:00Dan is handed a budget and he works within that bu...Dan is handed a budget and he works within that budget. Rarely, a big ticket item is forced on the GM. I think during Dan's tenure that has only been Davis. The rest has been Dan working within the system handed to him. If you look at payroll allotment etc. around the league it is hard to find any GM who can successfully alter with any significance the criteria established by ownership.<br /><br />Dan has done a great job. He has been terrible at some things, but it is hard not to see how well he has done.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-54804350868928727712017-10-19T12:17:22.682-04:002017-10-19T12:17:22.682-04:00I suppose, yes we can only guess, however transact...I suppose, yes we can only guess, however transactions are Dan's job. He is responsible for doing the deed. In the absence of any concrete information, we must assume that transactions are Dan's choice, because signing and acquiring players is the job of the GM. <br />This means, of course that Dan, or any other GM, will get some undeserved credit or undeserved blame. But whatever should happen, what WILL happen is almost certainly Dan's call.<br />Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-57454057448756521122017-10-19T07:39:33.021-04:002017-10-19T07:39:33.021-04:00Duquette's power of persuasion isn't going...Duquette's power of persuasion isn't going to do much if the Orioles refuse to sign a top starting pitcher or give someone not named Chris Davis a massive contract. Perhaps he was given a choice to bring Trumbo back or only do something minor. We don't know.<br /><br />All I'm saying is we can only guess. Anyway, a bad contract swap is the more realistic option, and even that is unlikely to happen.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-12082050433456433652017-10-18T16:48:53.555-04:002017-10-18T16:48:53.555-04:00I like it, but don't see the need for a Bourjo...I like it, but don't see the need for a Bourjos, I don't know if he's really any better than a Joey Rickard at this point (and I'm not a Rickard fan at all). btwrestler119https://www.blogger.com/profile/13114527219746054252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-62272280301835041712017-10-18T16:46:38.717-04:002017-10-18T16:46:38.717-04:00I mentioned Dan, because doing such things is Dan&... I mentioned Dan, because doing such things is Dan's job. He has to get ownership to sign off on major moves, but he can use his power of persuasion to help accomplish what he wants. <br />I was only saying that Dan does not want it to happen, so it won't. There's nothing wrong with saying that.Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-42235678668234129242017-10-18T16:21:50.423-04:002017-10-18T16:21:50.423-04:00I honestly think Trumbo brings negative value rega...I honestly think Trumbo brings negative value regardless of his deal which is why I went the way I did.Joe Wantzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17689564607849008313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-81146164649758532742017-10-18T12:27:46.315-04:002017-10-18T12:27:46.315-04:00I think the issue with Trumbo is that he is a 12 M...I think the issue with Trumbo is that he is a 12 MM salary who in 2017 performed at a -8 MM or so level. A swing of 20 MM in value is terrible.<br /><br />Chris Davis is a 17 MM real time contract and he came in as a 0 WAR player, which is a -17 MM swing. Both are terrible.<br /><br />What makes Trumbo worse is that with the existing contracts on hand and Trumbo's misery in RF that it was clear that the roster would have a hard time accomodating for him and that Davis was there.<br /><br />Between the two, I think one would have better hope in Davis finding himself again than Trumbo. That said, Trumbo in the field at 1B might well be better than Davis if he continues to struggle mightily as a DH.<br /><br />So short end of it, everyone thinks that both are terrible deals, but Trumbo's was a worse decision because the club was already locked into Davis.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-45358491253661148122017-10-18T12:00:05.696-04:002017-10-18T12:00:05.696-04:00I don't know why you guys are so convinced Tru...I don't know why you guys are so convinced Trumbo was a horrible deal. As terrible as he was, there is only two more years left on it. He's essentially morphed into a $12m per year off the bench platoon hitter. That sounds bad, but the Orioles would be better off using him as such instead of just releasing him outright. <br /><br />The real culprit of bad deals is Davis. I don't even want to go there right now; getting a headache just thinking about it. Also, nobody has mentioned Tyson Ross with his super cheap BORAS projection contract. Give that guy a shot! (for the 5th starter spot of course) Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15427526051371867260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-42419537456165384802017-10-18T11:41:13.787-04:002017-10-18T11:41:13.787-04:00Right. That was a response to the previous comment...Right. That was a response to the previous comment by PTCello. I get the rationale behind it even though I don't agree. Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-78197650239725357822017-10-18T11:30:08.849-04:002017-10-18T11:30:08.849-04:00The Ubaldo thing is the biggest indicator that it ...The Ubaldo thing is the biggest indicator that it won't happen, but it's a little different because he offered pitching depth that the team always needs. Trumbo doesn't have that same value, though I also doubt it would happen. I'd deal him for anything at all.Joe Wantzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17689564607849008313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-13337876981168436712017-10-18T11:27:29.929-04:002017-10-18T11:27:29.929-04:00I'm confused as to how DFA'ing Trumbo woul...I'm confused as to how DFA'ing Trumbo would automatically be a Duquette thing. He gets credit for a signing that looks awful right now, but I can't imagine him being able to convince ownership to eat that kind of money. They wouldn't do it with Ubaldo, and there's no way it happens with Trumbo.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-47406830404069807082017-10-18T11:17:42.452-04:002017-10-18T11:17:42.452-04:00I think it's really good. Dumping Trumbo is a ...I think it's really good. Dumping Trumbo is a surprise but is actually a good idea( which means Dan will never do it) the Angels dumped Hamilton, the Red Sox tossed Sandoval, and there's no indication that Trumbo is any better than he's shown.<br />You have to leave room for a rule 5 guy though. That draft is Dan's happiest day.Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-56765163344743790802017-10-18T10:53:45.045-04:002017-10-18T10:53:45.045-04:00I think Joe has a reasonable argument for lowering...I think Joe has a reasonable argument for lowering Dyson's cost, but in the final article I will be using the full BORAS projected contracts if I do wind up being convinced to include Dyson as a solution.<br /><br />Sogard was not originally listed, but was made public in the introductory post's comments and among the site writers.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-71377853271536373192017-10-18T09:20:47.579-04:002017-10-18T09:20:47.579-04:00I agree that I changed the projection on Dyson, bu...I agree that I changed the projection on Dyson, but in talking with Jon and others there has been a clear trend towards paying platoon players less than their estimated value based off of WAR and other stats. Dyson only had 390 PA this season and has never even had 400, and it’s doubtful he’d reach his BORAS projection given the constraints on playing time he represents. Teams also don’t usually pay huge premiums for defense first guys in free agency.<br /><br />Also, while Sogard was not on the public list that is his projection in the system.Joe Wantzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17689564607849008313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89957391670232863122017-10-18T07:38:33.369-04:002017-10-18T07:38:33.369-04:00I have to cry "foul". No one else has c...I have to cry "foul". No one else has changed the BORAS projection to fit more FA's in under the budget. Plus, two of your free agents were not on the list of BORAS players presented (not that they shouldn't be - the list lacks good Util options). But I also believe that BORAS is low on the good mid-range pitchers (e.g. I saw 4/42-43 over at MLBTR for Cobb). Besides, asking to make good deals on speed/def guys is not terribly realistic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com