tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post4606818504254033978..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Adam Brett Walker: Chris Carter in the RoughJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-60420474679716676932017-01-26T15:50:17.540-05:002017-01-26T15:50:17.540-05:00This whole argument is about me saying he deserves...This whole argument is about me saying he deserves a Cup of Coffee. Never said he was an MLB star. Never said he was better than other players overall. I stated that he did accomplish equal or better in several statistical categories than Norfolk players, which should have been worthy of a cup of coffee on the worst team in baseball. <br /><br />Doesn't matter I guess. The Braves claimed him. Maybe just maybe he gets a cup of coffee this year. Potential is there. All I said. Most wanted man of the 2016-17 off season. LolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-80102341738247880702017-01-25T13:49:51.564-05:002017-01-25T13:49:51.564-05:00What is remarkable is that Walker's contract w...What is remarkable is that Walker's contract was purchased before the 2015 Rule 5 draft. Twins gave him a shot in the Fall League as well. So all year long he was on the 40 man roster for the worst team in baseball. A team that also had several injury issues. He was never called up.<br /><br />Now, sadly, that is an accomplishment.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-3221543436194941432017-01-25T13:36:49.384-05:002017-01-25T13:36:49.384-05:00A few things...Adam Brett Walker is on level. Thi...A few things...Adam Brett Walker is on level. This year, if spent in AAA, would be his first year behind a level. Average age in IL for batters is 26.5 and 26.6 for pitchers. He was 2.5 years below average age for AAA. That is a bit misguiding because AAA is a depth reservoir in addition to a run in the talent chain.<br /><br />Being a team MVP in the minors is not much of an accomplishment. You need to be at a level a whole year, so you need to be good but not exceptional. Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Byung Ho Park, and Max Kepler were better. Jorge Polanco and Kennys Vargas look at least as interesting. There is a reason why no one really keeps track of team MVPs at a MiL level. They are mainly used as conciliation prizes.<br /><br />Now, being 24 in AAA. That is decent, but in no way remarkable. Again, look at the above comment where I have on age players who did well for their clubs at the same age.<br /><br />It simply is not remarkable.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61375396788943284312017-01-25T13:01:57.840-05:002017-01-25T13:01:57.840-05:00@Joe Reisel - the average age of a AA player is 23...@Joe Reisel - the average age of a AA player is 23.8 and the average age of a AAA player is 28.2. Being an MVP at 24 on a AAA is an accomplishment. Most offensive players peak around 27 or 28 so being in AAA for a full year at age 24 is not in and of itself something to think poorly of.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-53035033823899438592017-01-25T11:38:57.507-05:002017-01-25T11:38:57.507-05:00Well, we do not know until January 29th what happe...Well, we do not know until January 29th what happens.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-22066307724845159322017-01-25T11:35:21.916-05:002017-01-25T11:35:21.916-05:00And FWIW, Walker got dumped into DFA limbo, so the...And FWIW, Walker got dumped into DFA limbo, so the whole discussion is moot.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-13929137920598557112017-01-25T11:08:16.237-05:002017-01-25T11:08:16.237-05:00#ABWBiggestFan - the fact that Adam Brett Walker i...#ABWBiggestFan - the fact that Adam Brett Walker is 24 and in his first AAA season, and that the was the team MVP, are not really positives. Most really good prospects/players reach AAA before they turn 24; and to be named MVP of an AAA team implies that you stayed with the team the whole season and were not promoted mid-year. Again, not really a positive point in regards to prospect status. HIs BABIP, combined with his batting average, also highlights his problems making contact. And comparing him to Norfolk players is problematic, if only because Norfolk is a much harder place to hit than Rochester.<br /><br />Beyond that, what is your point, exactly? If your point is that Adam Brett Walker might provide production comparable to Chris Carter at a fraction of the cost, I concede that you may be right. If your point is that Adam Brett Walker is so good that he should be given that chance, you're overlooking the very real concerns about his contact rate and his defense. It's reasonable that teams would prefer options with fewer significant questions.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-33904611365299506522017-01-25T09:00:03.143-05:002017-01-25T09:00:03.143-05:00Walker's strikeouts and ISO make him pretty un...Walker's strikeouts and ISO make him pretty unique. Ryan Ludwick is the only one of the above that really is a close match. If you do a similar projection for someone like Trey Mancini, you would get 15 players closer to him than Ludwick's season was to ABW's. Mancini has 197 closer matches to him than Clevlen is to Walker. Jonathan Van Every would be close, but he walked about 45% better than average (Walker is 3% better). Borchard and Snyder are close, too, but, again, they walked significantly more.<br /><br />For on age, the best comp would be somewhere between Brad Snyder and Rhyne Hughes. Ignoring age, something like Ryan Ludwick, who was a couple years older.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-2820557228369704542017-01-25T08:59:19.627-05:002017-01-25T08:59:19.627-05:00Eh, he did have a 121 wRC+. I'm willing to agr...Eh, he did have a 121 wRC+. I'm willing to agree that it's plausible to say that he's a good AAA player. But when you take defense into account, I think above average is fair.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-20974699620651574412017-01-25T08:53:07.183-05:002017-01-25T08:53:07.183-05:00Top IL season comps statistically (2001-2010)
Ryan...Top IL season comps statistically (2001-2010)<br />Ryan Ludwick<br />Michael Restovich<br />Alex Escobar<br />Jonathan Van EVery<br />Jason Dubois<br />Joe Borchard<br />Brad Eldred<br />George Lombard<br />Juan Diaz<br />Brent Clevlen<br /><br />Top IL season comps statististically on age (2001-2010)<br />Brent Clevlen<br />Jeff Inglin<br />Curtis Granderson<br />Wladimir Balentien<br />Ryan Raburn<br />Kevin Cash<br />Justin Ruggiano<br />Brad Snyder<br />Rhyne Hughes<br />Aaron HerrJon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-64336044500545596682017-01-25T08:46:37.669-05:002017-01-25T08:46:37.669-05:00Projection models do not only look at strikeouts. ...Projection models do not only look at strikeouts. Stop making it about strikeouts. Strikeouts are merely a major characterization of the player. All other attributes are being considered except team wins. Team wins mean nothing here.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-79125326431625431902017-01-24T23:44:52.092-05:002017-01-24T23:44:52.092-05:00AAA International League Rankings
#1 in SO
#1 in I...AAA International League Rankings<br />#1 in SO<br />#1 in ISO (with at least 100 games)<br />#2 in HRs<br />#3 in RBI<br />#3 in Extra Base Hits (not just homers)<br />#3 in Total Bases<br />#6 in SLG% (higher than any Norfolk Tide player)<br />#10 in BABIP (with at least 100 games)<br />#11 in wRC (higher than any Tide except Mancini)<br />#14 in Runs Scored (higher than any Norfolk Tide player)<br />#18 in OPS (higher than anyone on Norfolk Tide)<br />#22 in BB (higher than any Tide except Mancini)<br /><br />*24 yrs old (1st AAA season)<br />*Team MVP on 80+ win team (1st AAA season)<br />*I'll take maybe good AAA player<br />*K's can't be the only above ranking that matters<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-53012212678776583862017-01-24T21:52:45.925-05:002017-01-24T21:52:45.925-05:00Maybe a good AAA player....Maybe a good AAA player....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-28806823817474823952017-01-24T15:31:59.109-05:002017-01-24T15:31:59.109-05:00Agree to disagreeAgree to disagreeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-60673062249554172362017-01-24T15:31:02.521-05:002017-01-24T15:31:02.521-05:00The Twins thought enough of him to name him to the...The Twins thought enough of him to name him to their Organizational All Star team each of the last 4 years, yet didn't think enough of him to give him that cup of coffee. Wrong. They promoted Logan Shafer (now an Oriole) for a month long call up over Walker and he wasn't even on the 40 man roster. Wrong. And that's on the team that has the first pick in the draft. Wrong. Obviously there are other people out there who think like you, so I get it. I just think they were wrong and so are you. <br /><br />What are the 5 most important stat lines for you as an evaluator? OBP? K/BB? OPS? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-12626626757037954242017-01-24T15:18:55.263-05:002017-01-24T15:18:55.263-05:00I'm looking at all of it. I'm trying not ...I'm looking at all of it. I'm trying not to ignore the ISO and w/OBA and RC+, etc..<br />Walker has flaws! His production is worth that cup of coffee however. Period! That's my point. Is all I'm saying. <br /><br />I bet Walker was the only AAA player in the minors who was a AAA team MVP and on a 40 man roster and did not get a cup of coffee in 2016. That's just wrong despite your outlook IMO.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-92110791322458455512017-01-24T14:33:38.051-05:002017-01-24T14:33:38.051-05:00As I noted in the other comment section, you are n...As I noted in the other comment section, you are not really using a FanGraphs projection. You are using a ZiPS projection and that projection you are using says that his performance is below replacement level. You are saying, based on your evidence, that players with negative WAR projections deserve cups of coffee due to that level of projection. Do you see how that does not make sense?<br /><br />By using your method of performance scouting, you are neglecting how pitching at each level is stratified.<br /><br />ISO and wOBA are major drivers of projection, but other variables are highly impactful. Looking solely at them and neglecting the others kind of misses the boat.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-45242392503791524492017-01-24T14:07:40.400-05:002017-01-24T14:07:40.400-05:00My argument is simply - He has PRODUCED at every l...My argument is simply - He has PRODUCED at every level and deserves a cup of coffee before dismissing his potential to overseas. Your argument is based on what "he is likely to do" at the MLB level. You might be right. My thinking is more in line with the 2017 Fangraph projections. Not a great K rate projection, but excellent power number projections (XBH / RBI totals & not just HRs). Also had the highest BABIP average of all Oriole players in Fangraph projections. Imagine if he can improve his contact rate slightly.<br /><br />WALKER's ISO LISTED AS GREAT or EXCELLENT IN EVERY SEASON as a PRO (highest level is excellent BTW)<br /><br />WALKER's w/OBA LISTED AS ABOVE AVERAGE to GREAT IN EVERY SEASON as a PRO <br /><br />Out of curiousity - Where do those stat lines fall in your validation of a prospect? Do ISO and w/OBA mean anything in the grand scheme of things? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-74364245262727368432017-01-24T13:10:56.349-05:002017-01-24T13:10:56.349-05:00IMHO your suggestion that he go to the KBO is a gr...IMHO your suggestion that he go to the KBO is a great one. As you said, with extra cash in the bank everything about his lifestyle should improve. And hopefully that would translate into improvements at the plate.<br /><br />Only one question: would such a move help bring down that K%? I can think of one power hitter (Park of Minnesota) who brought a high K rate with him to the U.S. and we all know how that worked out. Kim I think was considered more of high contact, high OBP when he came over. <br /><br />Kang succeeded with the Pirates, but he was playing a premium position. I ask this only because I thought I read somewhere that managers in the KBO don't care that much about contact from power hitters. But then again, I could be wrong since it's been awhile since Kang came over and I'm pretty sure that's when I read that article.<br /><br />Do you have any information that could clear this up? vilnius b.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02872502926590063013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-88138369965567546062017-01-24T11:34:12.123-05:002017-01-24T11:34:12.123-05:00As I have gotten more experienced, what jumps out ...As I have gotten more experienced, what jumps out at me is unbalanced performance. There are apparent thresholds that a batter needs to maintain to be successful at the next level. Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-8777162988827468022017-01-24T10:51:22.726-05:002017-01-24T10:51:22.726-05:00Great article! It begs a question:
When you're...Great article! It begs a question:<br />When you're looking at prospect stats, what's the one thing that most jumps out at you as an indication of major league success?<br />It doesn't seem to be mere power. Power without eye seems utterly wasted, based on this article. Is it contact rate, good eye( avoiding pitches outside the zone) or something deeper?Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-2208975268356651622017-01-24T09:34:25.687-05:002017-01-24T09:34:25.687-05:00I wrote a whole article on this. I talked to three...I wrote a whole article on this. I talked to three different people in the industry on this. Not exactly jokingly dismissing anything. Your argument simply does not stand up very well. If your only argument is that he is unlike everyone ever, it is not a strong argument. We have seen power with poor contact. We have seen it a lot. It almost always fails. Is there some line that automatically pushes success, we have never seen any evidence of a threshold like that.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-46629823375946343372017-01-24T09:12:00.672-05:002017-01-24T09:12:00.672-05:00And the only comparison to Carter is the HR power....And the only comparison to Carter is the HR power. Walker is a much better athlete and even defender at 1B. He was a 2nd team All American at 1B. He can even do the splits. As for his athleticism - Between college and the pro's - Walker has stolen 86 of 97 base attempts (89%). The kid has "worth" IMO<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QD7hqHOSp4<br /><br />Walker doing the splits while playing 1BAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-35499620847308555542017-01-24T09:00:53.126-05:002017-01-24T09:00:53.126-05:00All you say is true, however, I would like him to ...All you say is true, however, I would like him to have his cup of coffee before traveling abroad. The one thing this kid has done has been to stay VERY consistent with his OBP / SLG / and OPS year after year after year. His minor league numbers have been who he is at every level. His adjustments have been to stay true to those numbers year in and year out - Lol. <br /><br />His minor league averages over a MLB 162 game schedule are 33 Doubles, 5 Triples, 35 HRs and 125 RBI and 220+ K's. Would those numbers fly in the MLB? There should be no gray area. It's either a yes or no? I can not see many teams balking on those numbers at a controlled $5000,000/per year. The question you and your scout friends raise is can he do that at the MLB level? His consistency tells me somehow he will find a way. He ALWAYS does year in and year out.<br /><br />Also note: That against MLB Top 20 Pitching prospects through his minor league career, Walker has a lifetime 23% K rate in 422 ABs. Maybe it's the bad pitching in the minors that has been holding back his game? Think about it before you jokingly dismiss the concept. Deserves a Cup of Coffee before being shipped abroad is all I'm saying.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com