tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post2445936297829612631..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Adam Jones' PotentialJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-86939810710089850932012-02-03T07:49:21.177-05:002012-02-03T07:49:21.177-05:00Ah yes, the Cameron "study". I wondered ...Ah yes, the Cameron "study". I wondered when that would show up here. <br />The basis of the study was to identify fairly young baseball players who swung at pitches over 50% of the time. This study yielded 24 players to compare to Adam Jones, and as some of the names include high quality offensive players like Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Justin Morneau and Aramis Ramirez, it sounds like Adam Jones is in good company to be a pretty good ball player, though Cameron cautions against comparing Jones and say, Cabrera.<br /><br />The big problem I have with Cameron's study is that it focuses on an act (swinging at a lot of pitches) and not results. Unless you swing and miss with two strikes, there are no results to this ratio of pitches swung at to total pitches seen. If a hitter swings at a fastball right down the middle and hits it 450 feet or if he chases a slider low and away, it makes no difference in the ratio!<br /><br />The purpose of the study was to try and suggest that Adam Jones had potential to be better. My question became just how much better might he be? Armed with Cameron's 24 names, I looked at what each of those players had done at age 25 and compared them to what Adam Jones had done at age 25 in 2011. The metric I used was the ratio of unintentional walks divided by the Plate Appearances w/out intentional walks.<br /><br />The players who came closest to Adam Jones in that category at age 25 were Carl Crawford and Corey Patterson, both coming in within 5 % of Jones' ratio. Four other players had lower ratios with Robinson Cano closest at 22% lower. On the upside, there were no players within 20% of Jones' ratio of 4.4% unintentional walks / unintentional plate appearances.<br /><br />I believe that Cameron's study and my own that built upon his published results are both about plate discipline, but from different ends. His yielded 24 names as high swinging comps. When you add in the unintentional walk metric, the two closest comps are Carl Crawford, possibly the biggest free agent bust of 2011, and Corey Patterson, one of the biggest high draft choice busts of recent times.<br />I would like to see a study done using similarity scores that took in all aspects of Adam Jones production to get a better idea of what he might be like down the road, but lack the time to do so at this point. The purpose of this was not to hammer Adam Jones or Dave Cameron; both can improve and do better. My advice to Jones is learn the strike zone and to Cameron is to use production based metrics in the future. A study that is broad enough to include Angel Berroa with Miguel Cabrera needs a tighter focus.oltrexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-16986102183755580042012-01-19T02:20:19.291-05:002012-01-19T02:20:19.291-05:00Well i know as a former coach of Adam... i know he...Well i know as a former coach of Adam... i know he is working hard in his off-season to improve his all around game!Good things are coming for that young man take my word for it!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-2770338839274458492012-01-16T12:13:51.549-05:002012-01-16T12:13:51.549-05:00I can't believe there are Braves fans that thi...I can't believe there are Braves fans that think Jones is less than Prado. <br />Prado is a utility player, while Jones is an AS level CF. I realize, according to stats, Jones has had some issues on defense, but they are ignoring the fact that he's a CF, much younger, on a poor team, and still hitting for a solid average despite his recent weakness for the breaking ball.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37972545179234766932012-01-13T15:55:48.341-05:002012-01-13T15:55:48.341-05:00the orioles should get at least some quality playe...the orioles should get at least some quality players if they do trade adam jones i mean i can see them gettin like jimmy rollins or mike cameron or jacoby ellsbury or somebody else thats made a big name for themselves but i would love to see him stay in baltimore and hopefully get somebody that can back him up and not take his spot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com