tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post2383841356388499573..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Chris Davis Might Well Be GoneJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-46330577772908011382015-08-16T13:22:52.544-04:002015-08-16T13:22:52.544-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17734221506209567204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90420484988973770662015-08-12T12:57:06.559-04:002015-08-12T12:57:06.559-04:00Competitive balance picks are decided by lottery w...Competitive balance picks are decided by lottery while compensation round picks are decided by rejected qualifying offers with signings by other teams before the draft.<br /><br />A compensation round pick is worth about 5-10 MM if in the first round and 2-4 MM if in the second round. I do make mention of how these picks impact the signing club, but those picks are outside of the scope of this argument. This argument is simply about what Davis is worth and what other 1B options are out there.<br /><br />No pick with Parra. A player has to be under control for the entire season.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-64079229471687483292015-08-12T12:33:50.382-04:002015-08-12T12:33:50.382-04:00O's get competitive balance picks for each guy...O's get competitive balance picks for each guy that they give qualifying offers to who turn them down:<br /><br />-Davis + Chen, worth adding in the value calculations of not signing them. A competitive balance pick has to have some kind of player value to the team... what is it.. like 3.5 WAR SPREAD OVER FIRST 6 YEARS OF PLAY? <br /><br />Do O's get a competitive balance pick with Parra? <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-13712735382446945282015-08-11T19:11:58.061-04:002015-08-11T19:11:58.061-04:00There are probably a few Snider type guys who are ...There are probably a few Snider type guys who are in danger of being waived or nontendered.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-21290049730433700122015-08-11T16:46:02.219-04:002015-08-11T16:46:02.219-04:00The list of guys in this article is rather depress...The list of guys in this article is rather depressing.<br />It seems that the O's can't buy top-grade steak, but these options really seem past the date.<br />With the caveat that any minor leaguer is a gamble, is there any point to scouring other AA-AAA rosters for possibilities?<br />I guess that is happening anyway, but I can't see any of the fellows listed in your article as solid assets except just possibly for Singleton, who reminds one of Mark Reynolds with less contact.Philipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-82029554971193949102015-08-11T15:24:38.016-04:002015-08-11T15:24:38.016-04:00Got it. Thanks for the context on the moves from ...Got it. Thanks for the context on the moves from AA-->AAA-->MLB...I've heard some of those explanations before but not so concisely presented. Jeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10546686596996586869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-88269859204790313782015-08-11T14:08:07.075-04:002015-08-11T14:08:07.075-04:00I mean *not* referring to that aspect of Jaso.I mean *not* referring to that aspect of Jaso.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-72897535566606404762015-08-11T13:52:59.921-04:002015-08-11T13:52:59.921-04:00He probably was referring to that aspect of Jaso. ...He probably was referring to that aspect of Jaso. Comps are not supposed to be all encompassing. He was discussing the hit tool. Obviously, Jaso without the walks is a tough sell.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-60331620003708344962015-08-11T13:42:34.715-04:002015-08-11T13:42:34.715-04:00Fair enough...like the vast majority of prospects ...Fair enough...like the vast majority of prospects Mancini faces a very steep uphill climb to be a successful MLer. Especially given his defensive limitations. I'm not sure what the consensus would be either.<br /><br />I understand the need to matrix stats and scouting reports for a player's true prospects, but the Jaso comparison is a puzzling one given that he is a guy who has made a career out of being patient and getting on base, which does not seem to be Mancini's strength or MO. Jeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10546686596996586869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-63346603618804585182015-08-11T13:41:40.306-04:002015-08-11T13:41:40.306-04:00Just to elaborate on the whole "AA is a big j...Just to elaborate on the whole "AA is a big jump" thought for those who might not be aware. The major issue for players in AA is that this level is where plans are made. Before this, you can get by on talent because you face a great number of players who have difficulty implementing a hitting or pitching approach. In Bowie, you will often see a young player breakout for a half season and then come back to earth once a book on him is more firmly established. Players like Joe Mahoney, Brandon Waring, Christian Walker, and Ryan Hubele may run wild on the league due to unfamiliarity with them and a little bit of BABIP luck.<br /><br />From AA, projections get a tad better, but discerning the difference between guys who plan for fastballs at a certain level and guys who adapt to changing approaches taken against him may not show up in the box score. However, a guy who waits on high fastballs in the minors may simply not see much of anything hittable there at the MLB level.<br /><br />Beyond AA, the jump to AAA sees retention of about 10% of offense. Prospects that are developing well should see themselves retain their numbers when moving up to AAA. From AAA to MLB, retention of value is about 80%. Again, an improving player should cut down that loss a little. And again, these are community projections. You will find several players not adhere to these generalities.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32688483777325113292015-08-11T13:06:37.069-04:002015-08-11T13:06:37.069-04:00Statistically...a lot of things are ignored. You ...Statistically...a lot of things are ignored. You certainly want to see performance, but you also want that to be supported by scouting. I certainly have no idea what the consensus is, but according to three scouts opinion ranges from third to second tier. One gave a career comp of John Jaso. The other agreed with me when I said Mancini looks like someone in the Russ Canzler group of players. Today, I was messing around with a lightly considered but proprietary statistical comp system and it mentioned both of those guys as statistical comps.<br /><br />In other words, scouts see him as fringe and a more rigorous statistical outlook is also seeing him as fringe. I have a hard time formulating a stronger argument against those pieces of evidence. And, yes, the swing is better, but it is still long. Each scout noted that.<br />Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-3649419403910781652015-08-11T12:58:37.151-04:002015-08-11T12:58:37.151-04:00Just playing devil's advocate here from an out...Just playing devil's advocate here from an outside perspective re: Mancini, but don't you think a 179 wRC+ is a little better than "solid" performance? His .970 OPS is 65 points better than the top qualified hitter in the league. If he was 23 putting up those numbers in the SAL or something, I would not give it a second thought, but he's actually improved as he's moved up. There is a very interesting parallel to his statistical progression in Victor Martinez, who similarly was just okay in the NYPL at age 20, struggled a bit in his first taste of A+ ball in the Carolina League, and then proceeded to demolish AA pitching at 23. The numbers are strikingly similar with the notable exception of Martinez drawing more walks. In Martinez' case, he was in the majors to stay by the second half of the following season.<br /><br />In any case, statistically the biggest minor league jump is from A+ to AA, and it's usually a good sign when someone makes the adjustment as smoothly as he has. I read about a month ago that he had made substantial adjustments to his swing this year. I guess my bottom line is that maybe your "optimistic perspective" is not optimistic enough. If nothing else, I fail to see how Walker is any more likely to be our 1B of the future. Jeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10546686596996586869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-3647913321540378492015-08-11T12:03:51.587-04:002015-08-11T12:03:51.587-04:00@MP - Oh, single season.
@Lou - Maybe at the end ...@MP - Oh, single season.<br /><br />@Lou - Maybe at the end of the month, but those guys are paid rather cheaply. I would be surprised if they passed through.<br /><br />@Matt - Sandoval and Howard would pass through. The others? Unlikely. You would have to hope that teams worse than the Orioles would not claim.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-51536899662109793402015-08-11T11:51:55.229-04:002015-08-11T11:51:55.229-04:00Why would any of those three clear waivers?Why would any of those three clear waivers?Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-4527718942035048752015-08-11T11:36:39.991-04:002015-08-11T11:36:39.991-04:00Should the O's consider trading off Davis, Wie...Should the O's consider trading off Davis, Wieters, Chen, etc, if they clear waivers? I know they aren't far out of the wild card but they also don't seem to be able to get over 4 games over .500. Should they try and get in this year and hope for a Royals-like run in the playoffs, and be prepared to slide into mediocrity? Or sell off and hope to get enough prospects that Jones and Machado won't immediately leave when they become free agents? Just thinking about this, since it seems like they won't be able to re-sign Davis...Louhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13223893846607955185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89979421342346355902015-08-11T11:30:15.099-04:002015-08-11T11:30:15.099-04:00I suppose it's possible that Fangraphs is lyin...I suppose it's possible that Fangraphs is lying to me but I don't think so. And Fangraphs does measure errors by position and not just errors by player (i.e some players play multiple positions and have different error totals at each one) First basemen have fewer errors than third basemen and shortstops but more than outfielders. <br /><br />http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,dMatt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-85088464073136651192015-08-11T11:20:44.633-04:002015-08-11T11:20:44.633-04:00Sixth most errors at first base with 16 since 2000...Sixth most errors at first base with 16 since 2000? I have a hard time believing that is accurate. Amongst active players, it is about 30 something most. Were you referring to a different stat?<br /><br />Anyway, yeah, he would be a bit of a mess at first.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-84114539149253425892015-08-11T11:09:31.340-04:002015-08-11T11:09:31.340-04:00Alvarez may not have much talent but his left-hand...Alvarez may not have much talent but his left-handed power would be an excellent fit for Camden Yards. The problem is that Snider had a very similar profile and just flopped at Camden Yards so the Os may be wary. Would be surprised but not shocked if he wasn't non-tendered.<br /><br />He has a UZR of -9.5 and 16 errors (13 fielding). Since 2000, he has the sixth most errors at first base total despite only 650 innings there so far. UZR has this season ranked as the eighteenth worse so far. I imagine that teams are using one of these two stats and won't be impressed with his results. He's solely a DH or PH at this point. NL teams probably would be interested in him as a PH but the Orioles could offer regular playing time as a DH. <br /><br />I can see a few AL teams having interest, primarily ones like the Rays looking for cheap solutions.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-77674165605941713182015-08-11T09:29:46.138-04:002015-08-11T09:29:46.138-04:00If Davis is considered a must and 17.5 is too rich...If Davis is considered a must and 17.5 is too rich (it likely is), you could always hand out something like:<br />2016 - 10 MM<br />2017 - 12 MM<br />2018 - 14 MM<br />2019 - 20 MM<br />2020 - 20 MM<br />2021 - 24 MM (8 MM buyout)<br /><br />Of course, that is throwing away 2019 and 2020 most likely as well as assuming that Davis would accept a low front end pay.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-58355531481319353032015-08-11T09:18:46.984-04:002015-08-11T09:18:46.984-04:00I don't like the idea of going back to being n...I don't like the idea of going back to being non-competitive for any period of time given the window with Machado and Jones ends after 2018 as well.<br /><br />Assuming we want to contend next year, let's say the O's have in the range of $25MM to $30MM (could be a little high) post-arb money to spend in free agency this offseason, you could theoretically make a couple good signings. If Davis is going to eat up most of that on his own, probably not worth it. The O's will have to obtain at least one viable, everyday corner OF in order to have Pearce/Reimold/Lough patrol the other side. Only Pearce could potentially be an everyday player, but I think that has to be option B (again, assuming you want to contend at least for a WC spot). In that situation, they really would need a starting 1B as well. And with Chen also like out the door, do you trust some combo of Bundy/Wilson/Wright to fill out a 5th rotation spot?<br /><br />I'm just not sure how to work it. You need an everyday corner OF, a bat to replace Davis and a 5th starter. How you get that for $25-30MM I don't know.Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-49404626920884544432015-08-11T08:56:57.420-04:002015-08-11T08:56:57.420-04:00Mancini has emerged to being considered a fringe p...Mancini has emerged to being considered a fringe prospect this year. Performance is solid, but the swing is a bit long. The question is whether he can both cut down on the swing while maintaining his power as he moves up and faces considerably more advanced pitching. Optimistic perspective is that he begins knocking very politely on the door in 2017. Realistically, he sits in Norfolk for a couple years getting a few cups of coffee. I think given the reports on him, he would need to excel in Norfolk and excel almost immediately in Baltimore for the team to provide him with any meaningful opportunity.<br /><br />In other words, he appears to be a very minimal factor and is more likely the kind of guy Duquette would deal in an August trade for a struggling bat or arm.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-30015305753547097422015-08-11T08:36:48.731-04:002015-08-11T08:36:48.731-04:00Any chance Mancini is a factor?Any chance Mancini is a factor?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com