tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post1765501382708838516..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Expanded Roster: Why the Orioles are Possibly Better Than Their Season Run DifferentialJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-71950175992894992172012-09-08T14:25:23.214-04:002012-09-08T14:25:23.214-04:00Hmmm, looks like one letter and one word is missin...Hmmm, looks like one letter and one word is missing in that response.<br /><br />Eh, be creative.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-42768913548014196172012-09-08T14:23:52.805-04:002012-09-08T14:23:52.805-04:00As our wives, family, friends, whatever know...non...As our wives, family, friends, whatever know...none of us should be spending more time watching baseball. Most of the people I communicate with here on the blog probably have seen at least half of the Orioles' games this season and are aware of the 51 or so players who have been with the big league club this year.<br /><br />As with most disciplines, anecdotal, abstract observation is very important to developing an initial hypothesis about what has occurred. The next step is to challenge that idea by somehow applying cold data to validate it. If you just stop with the hypothesis, then you are stuck with rather poorly thought out concepts like magical trolls in your stomach cause illnesses. You really need that data to develop a better idea as to how valid your own perspective is.<br /><br />As has been mentioned on this blog (you may have missed it), run differential is a descriptive statistic. It looks backward, not forward. Using descriptive statistics to project future performance makes a couple assumptions: (1) what happened is the true talent level being expressed and (2) that talent level will continue into the future. I believe this is what you tried to express and it is something that has been written quite a few times on this site.<br /><br />Anyway, the next time you wear your copper magnetic bracelets, drink your own urine, and take a performance suplement...perhaps think about the mode of action and why such a thing could ever work. Try to think about how one could provide overwhelming evidence of its utility. Stopping with the initial thought is a disservice and is rather lazy. If one chooses to live in a simpler world and not worry about why things happen...that is OK as it is your life to live. However, it is rather to harp on others who find enjoyment in trying to understand how things work.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-52846217960099668712012-09-07T13:41:56.555-04:002012-09-07T13:41:56.555-04:00All these statistical models are completely useles...All these statistical models are completely useless. Go watch baseball some time and stop wasting your time with this nonsense. Here's the simple answer: in June and July, with bad defense at the corners, several key injuries, a shaky rotation, and some slumping hitters, the Orioles racked up a disproportionate negative run differential. They fixed their rotation and their defense, got Markakis back, some good hitters recovered their stroke, and now they are a deep team that is better than the Yanks over all. Only a fool imagines that bad Pythagorean models applicable to statistical constants apply meaningfully to a changing quantity like the Orioles, with their 155 and more transactions.Andy Lyttlenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-54636198531895242132012-09-05T15:43:05.145-04:002012-09-05T15:43:05.145-04:00Also one more thing.
You noted that Dave Cameron...Also one more thing. <br /><br />You noted that Dave Cameron from Fangraphs stated that teams that overperform their run differential are likely to improve in the second half because they'll add players.<br /><br />It's easy enough to test that theory. If we take the thirty teams who most outperformed their run differential and compare how they do from Apr-June and July-Sept then we notice the following.<br /><br />Their run differential remains the same. But these teams win .556 of their games from Apr to June and only .499 from July to September. <br /><br />If that's not predicting a collapse, I don't know what is. It sure doesn't look to me like the roster moves those teams make help very much. Matt Pereznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-41448181039576892962012-09-05T15:26:59.725-04:002012-09-05T15:26:59.725-04:00It's important to remember that Run Differenti...It's important to remember that Run Differential is just one metric even if it is usually accurate. It's important to recognize that run differential may not help you project the future but it does let you see if there were any anomolies in the past.<br /><br />What worries me about what Fangraphs said in their chat is that they have gone from saying that run differential means the Orioles will collapse to saying that run differential is meaningless. Both are oversimplified.<br /><br />IMO, there needs to be a middle ground. I'm not sure it's clear how the Os are doing so well (I'm not in the bullpen camp). I think stats role should be trying to explain why the Orioles have outperformed this usually highly accurate metric. <br /><br />Thanks for reading!Matt Pereznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-55296662041511467642012-09-05T13:52:13.541-04:002012-09-05T13:52:13.541-04:00The misuse of run differential has become painful ...The misuse of run differential has become painful to watch (not here, but every national commentator throws the O's run diff out as the reason they will collapse). Fangraphs had a chat today and this question was addressed specifically in regards to the O's performance. I 100% agree with them that teams that overperform their RS/RA in the first half are likely to make roster moves that put a better product on the field in the second half, rendering their first half RS/RA less relevant to begin with. It's an easy crutch for too many people who don't really understand statistics imo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29067418390931277362012-09-05T11:13:41.056-04:002012-09-05T11:13:41.056-04:00I don't know how to create a graph using this ...I don't know how to create a graph using this commenting platform. If you saw a graph of run differential, it would show the Os slightly above average in April and August, about average in May and well below average in June and July. The month that the Os have had the highest run differential this year is September by a considerable amount. <br /><br />According to per month run differential(similar results as per season), the team was performing reasonably close to expectations in April and May(+1.5 wins). Things went haywire starting in June. In June, July and August, the team won three more games than expected. <br /><br />According to per game run differential, the Os performed exactly as expected in April and May. In June and July, they performed reasonably close to expectations as they won 2.6 games more than expected. Things went haywire in August when they won 2.3games more than expected.<br /><br />As the season goes on, the Os performance runs contrary to run differential.Matt Pereznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-50272571420351332252012-09-05T10:17:34.536-04:002012-09-05T10:17:34.536-04:00I'd like to see a graph of run differential by...I'd like to see a graph of run differential by date. Similar graphs of games over .500 are easy to find (for instance, pennant-race.com) but I haven't seen one for run differential. The win-loss graph shows the orioles were very good though the middle of May, then sort of below average through July, then started winning a lot in August. Does the run differential chart show the same curve, or did they build up all of thier negatives early in the season? - TJAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com