tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post1104313677834011402..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Step 1: Find a Box. Step 2: Is Chris Davis in that Box?Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-8435143562844281232017-03-15T07:22:55.781-04:002017-03-15T07:22:55.781-04:00Another statistical blip worth considering is that...Another statistical blip worth considering is that the O's seem to have a lot of solo home runs, presumably because of poor OBP at the top. If batting Davis 4th is just going toi produce a lot of solo home runs then I would think the having him lead off would not reduce his RBI count that much (even if we don't consider RBI's to be a significant statistic), but it might increase his runs scored count. If the O's tend to hit HRs up and down the lineup, it would seem to make sense to put the high OBP HR hitters at the top (Davis, Machado, Smith) and the lower OBP HR hitters in the middle (Trumbo, Jones) and you could improve Davis' ability to drive in runs by putting some good OBP types at the bottom (Kim, Rickard).Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-63069910909470396742017-03-14T23:11:49.747-04:002017-03-14T23:11:49.747-04:00If Chris Davis bats leadoff, either he would tend ...If Chris Davis bats leadoff, either he would tend to receive more fastballs which he hits more often and with more authority or pitchers might pitch around him more resulting in even more walks (which would raise his high on-base-average even more). If Chris Davis bats leadoff, he would average more plate-appearances per game. With more plate-appearances, he would accumulate more homeruns, doubles, singles, and walks. With his typically-higher strikeout rate, he would see more pitches (which tires the opposing pitcher faster and ultimately helps his team) and ground into fewer double-plays. His excellent speed and baserunning allow him to score even more runs and ground into fewer double plays as well. Chris Davis is a very good clutch hitter - he often leads the team in driving in runs which tie the game or put his team ahead. Considering all of these points, I would fully support having Chris Davis as our leadoff hitter!<br />-Steve. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06970601757367002454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-4929513779743629182017-03-14T09:59:43.085-04:002017-03-14T09:59:43.085-04:00One of my concerns with evaluating the validity of...One of my concerns with evaluating the validity of our lineup recommendations against 10 years of lineups is that most managers are going to hedge and follow accepted rules of thumb when setting batting orders. It wasn't that long ago that we might have looked at a batting order led by a low-average and scoffed that he rarely recorded a hit or often failed to put the ball in play, all while ignoring his very high walk rate. That doesn't make us wrong or right. Like you said, Davis and Trumbo are probably not ideal leadoff men, but they might be fine leadoff men and to dismiss them out of hand in this era of statistical innovation would probably be shortsighted.<br /><br />Also, can a guy get some standard deviations here? I want to know what percentile Davis' batting rates fall in for leadoff men!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03025547405242334439noreply@blogger.com