Orioles' 2018 Rotation Has Been Close To The Awful 2017 Version

In early February, while the Orioles were mostly sitting on their hands (along with lots of other teams) and free agent collusion was a popular topic, I said this about the Orioles' rotation options:

Would the O's rotation as currently constructed (whatever that is) perform worse than last year's collective 5.70 ERA? I'd say yes.

— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) February 6, 2018

That was when, at least for a period of time, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were the O's top two starters and there wasn't much behind them. A little over a week later, Bundy and Gausman started to get some reinforcements. Andrew Cashner signed on February 15, and Chris Tillman signed on February 19. Cashner's arrival slotted in somewhere between fine and meh (if there's a difference), and Tillman's below that. But they had two things going for them: they were starting pitchers who had performed well in the past, and their names weren't Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley.

About a month later, the Orioles surprisingly added Alex Cobb to the mix, and the O's had their starting five. Cobb signed late and would need some time to get ready, but the hope was that when he joined the team, he'd give them a boost. As we all know now, that was not the case.

The addition of Cobb added some excitement -- even if the O's starting rotation still didn't project to be very good -- and even though it seems impossible now, the O's kinda/sorta looked like the same .500-ish team that, if things broke right, could stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. But, almost since day one, the Orioles have rated poorly in nearly every phase of the game. And, unexpectedly, the 2018 starting rotation has been basically the same level of awful as the 2017 version.

Let's look at some numbers. Here's how the starting rotations from the past two years stack up:

2017: 5.70 ERA (15th in AL), 5.23 FIP, 19.4 K%, 9.4 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 35.0 Hard-hit%
2018: 5.53 ERA (14th in AL), 5.17 FIP, 19.3 K%, 8.0 BB%, 42.3 GB%, 35.2 Hard-hit%

Obviously the 2018 season isn't even half over, so things could improve. And, if anyone doesn't know, the 2017 O's rotation ERA of 5.70 is the worst in franchise history. But this rotation is still pretty close to that group and is really only better in walk rate and groundball rate.

But wait! Let's adjust for the change in offensive production. In 2017, the average AL team scored 4.71 runs per game. So far in 2018, AL teams average 4.50 runs per game. The average AL starter ERA in 2017 was 4.54; the average AL starter ERA in 2018 is currently 4.32.

That changes things, and it leads to the following:

Orioles SP in 2017: 129 ERA-, 115 FIP-
Orioles SP in 2018: 130 ERA-, 120 FIP-

Remember that with ERA- and FIP-, "100 is the league average and each point above or below 100 represents a percent above or below league average," so the lower, the better. That means that through about one-third of the season, the O's rotation has somehow performed slightly worse than last year's rotation.

At this point, you may be wondering if the O's rotation has been better in May, after Tillman was jettisoned to Sarasota. Tillman, after all, made five starts in April and two in May. But, nope, that's not the case:

Orioles SP in March/April: 5.34 ERA, 5.00 FIP in March/April
Orioles SP in May: 5.73 ERA, 5.35 FIP in May

Again, there's still time for improvement. June is about to begin, and it would be a surprise if the O's dealt away any of their starters. David Hess is also getting his shot, and he deserves an extended stay.

But one thing that can be said is the O's are not getting the most out of their starting pitchers. Gausman and Bundy are fine, but they're supposed to be better than that. Cobb was supposed to come in and provide legitimate top-of-the-rotation skills, and he has an ERA close to 7. Cashner has been OK, but nothing more than that.

The Orioles did not get the most out of Ubaldo Jimenez, or Wade Miley, or Jeremy Hellickson, or Yovani Gallardo, or... you get the point. Rotation signings haven't worked. Many prospects haven't developed enough or taken necessary steps. Fringe rotation options have been traded or discarded and gone on to find success elsewhere. International money is not being spent on pitching arms with potential. One person alone can't simply be blamed for starting rotations this bad.

As stated above, the Orioles have a whole lot of issues. They need to get better in many categories. They need to get younger and better. Unfortunately, that still includes the starting rotation, because the pitching woes persist.

Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference