The Time Has Arrived For Something Crazy: A Plan

Through their own way of reloading, the Orioles headed into this season intending to compete. They signed Andrew Cashner, brought back Chris Tillman, added Colby Rasmus, and surprisingly added Alex Cobb in late March. While far from perfect, those signings, along with a handful of other minor moves, addressed some of their issues, and it wasn't hard to paint the picture of the O's finishing close to .500 and gunning for a wild card spot.

So far, all the free agent signings above but one (Cashner) look like disasters. On top of that, the Orioles, for some reason, decided to begin the year with three Rule 5 picks on the active roster. That didn't last long, with Nestor Cortes Jr. being returned to the Yankees soon after. Now Pedro Araujo and Anthony Santander remain, with Santander surely to be optioned in mid-May when he satisfies his Rule 5 requirements.

But the Orioles haven't started 6-19 and been outscored by more runs than any other team simply because of a poor offseason approach. Nearly every player not named Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Dylan Bundy, Chance Sisco, and Richard Bleier has had a rough start to the year. Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Zach Britton, and Tim Beckham are on the disabled list. Caleb Joseph, Chris Davis, Santander, Rasmus, Cobb, Tillman, and Cortes have posted an fWAR of at least -0.2.  This horrible start, the worst through 25 games since 1988 and the second-worst in franchise history, can't be pinned on a few players. It's a group effort, and things seem broken beyond repair.

The Orioles have scored the third-fewest runs per game (3.28) among all teams while allowing the fourth-most runs (5.60). They have the worst on-base percentage in baseball (.289), the fifth-lowest slugging percentage (.366), the second-lowest wOBA (.289), the third-lowest wRC+ (78), and the second-highest strikeout percentage (26.9%). They have one player with a wRC+ over 110: Machado (192). Tillman and Cobb each have an ERA over 9.80, and the supposedly dependable arms in the bullpen have been disappointing. The list could go on and on, but you get the point.

So what now? Fans are calling for firings and accountability. Someone must be blamed for this embarrassment, and it's not like the Orioles can get rid of Davis and some of the other underachievers. Predictably, fans want to get rid of the hitting and pitches coaches, or to fire Showalter, or to kick Duquette to the curb. But it's too late to fix anything for 2018, and maybe that's hard to stomach. The Orioles went into the season with Showalter and Duquette as lame ducks. There was uncertainty then, and things don't look any better now. That's why it's time to start planning for what's next. What matters is 2019 and beyond.

My opinion is I'd like to see the Orioles go outside the organization to find an up-and-coming GM candidate to take over for Duquette. I don't know who that person would be, but I think it's time for something new. It's not hard to see the O's building around some of their young players - Bundy, Mancini, Sisco, Austin Hays, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Scott, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and more - by adding intriguing prospects to their current crop of minor leaguers. That new GM would also be able to hire the manager he wants, hopefully allowing things to fall into place as smoothly as possible.

That's surely a pipe dream, of course. If I had to guess, Brady Anderson will be the team's next GM (if he wants the job) and Showalter will stick around in some capacity. I'd guess that won't be in the dugout. That setup would not inspire confidence. Duquette may end up falling on his sword for the current disaster, but Anderson played a heavy role this offseason and should face some of the same criticism. He also helped bring back O'Day and Trumbo in previous seasons, with neither of those signings performing as well as expected either.

The Orioles need some new voices. They need to start operating differently and bringing in different kinds of players. They need to improve player development and get more out of their prospects. They need to draft better. They need to actually spend in the international market to bolster their farm system. And they need to do all of these things soon.

But again, pipe dream. The Orioles, with this current ownership structure, are still maybe not a desirable landing spot for intriguing GM possibilities despite the recent run of success. Don't forget how the Orioles ended up with Duquette in the first place.

The time for decisiveness has long past. After 2018 was always going to be the cliff, and the O's barely did anything to prepare for it. They tried to win, in the only way the Orioles could. But it's over, and real plans need to be made. Who will be making decisions going forward? What happens if Anderson isn't the next GM? How would Showalter in a front office role actually work?

The Orioles will likely punt on all these decisions until the last minute, as usual, but it's time to start asking these questions, and hoping for new voices.