Cup of jO's: Chris Davis Looks Different

For well over a year, some of us here at Camden Depot have thought it to be a decent idea to bat Chris Davis first.  This is based on a few things.  First, the club has no obvious prototypical leadoff hitter.  No one has that speed, on-base, gap power description to ink in at the top of the lineup.  In fact, the club has lacked that kind of remarkable player since Brian Roberts strode concussion-free into the batter's box.  Second, Davis is somewhat athletic (or he was) and is one of the better batters on the team getting on base and working counts (or he was).  Third, based on our context models which focus on linearity of data relationships, he seemed to generate the most runs for the team if he led off.

Surprisingly, the Orioles have done that.  Chris Davis started the first three games of the season as the leadoff hitter.  How has it gone?

Standard Batting

Year	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2015	670	31	47	84	208	.262	.361	.562
2016	665	21	38	88	219	.221	.332	.459
2017	524	15	26	61	195	.215	.309	.423
2018	14	0	0	2	1	.000	.143	.000
11 Y	4715	204	267	474	1505	.245	.327	.489

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2018.

Not all that well.  That said, I have noted on Twitter that although the line looks awful, he has done a decent job with a few aspects of hitter that seem to suggest his failure will quickly turn around.  Some have said that my point is trying to spackle up my previous declarations, but lets take a lot at some of the data.

Pitch Summary -- Batting *

Year	PA	Pit/PA	Str%	L/Str	S/Str	I/Str	AS/Str	Con	L/SO%
2015	672	4.15	60.2%	20.8%	28.2%	22.2%	79.2%	64.4%	26.9%
2016	670	4.11	59.1%	27.5%	26.9%	21.6%	72.5%	62.8%	35.6%
2017	524	4.07	61.8%	31.1%	24.3%	20.1%	68.9%	64.8%	38.5%
2018	14	3.64	54.9%	21.4%	10.7%	39.3%	78.6%	86.4%	100.0%
11 Y	4728	4.03	62.6%	22.3%	26.8%	22.7%	77.7%	65.6%	28.5%
MLB		3.83	63.6%	27.4%	16.0%	29.4%	72.6%	78.0%	24.1%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2018.

What we see is that Davis is seeing about 10% fewer pitches.  He is looking at fewer strikes (on par with his last great season), is not missing the ball, and is generating a lot of contact.  Now, the contact has not been incredibly hard hit contact, but in a general sense that usually corrects itself.  In other words, there are aspects here that seem to solve problems that have plagued him over the past couple years.

However, this might be a short run experiment as Roch wrote in his game recap:

“Like I told you, I’m not married to it, but we certainly are looking for something to try to get him going a little bit early in the season,” Showalter said. “It hasn’t been the case so far, but like I said when we first started talking about it, we’ll look at it, step back and see cause and effect or whatever you want to call it. We’re always looking for ways to get better. But Chris is not the only one right now three games into the season with 159 left that’s not exactly doing what we know they’re going to do. We’re trying to present something for the individual that helps the team and so far that hasn’t been the case. Like I said, we’ll continue to look at it as each game comes. I’ll probably talk with three or four of our guys where we are right now on the plane.”

Davis has said he feels that he is failing because as a leadoff hitter, he feels the need to be more aggressive.  Which, is interesting.  Regardless, I would like to see him inked in there the rest of this month and see what happens.  The player and the team may think otherwise.