How the Orioles win the AL East in 2018

The Orioles could win the the AL East this year.  They could.  I am not kidding.  Such an outcome is one I would not expect.  It is an outcome that I would find shocking, but there is a path.  If you pay attention to projection models incorporated into season models (pick one, any one, they all are about as accurate as any other), then you may know the club is generally seen as a mid 70s win team.  Such a club matches or exceeds 90 wins almost 10% of the time.  In other words, it is not uncommon.

However, 90 wins is nice, but not a guaranty of much of anything with an AL East that looks to have two monsters in the Yankees and Red Sox.  What would be a safe number would be around 95 wins.  That leads us to this idea, what would a scenario look like where the Orioles win 95 games.  That may sound unrealistic, but projection models disagree.  There is a chance.  That chance would require an even push by several Orioles in a more positive direction or a couple big breakouts to shoulder the load.  In this post, I will take the slight push approach.  Chance shown for each player is the probability for a player doing at least that well, so they could actually do better.

Catcher

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
C	Chance Sisco	256	0.8	0.8	0
	Caleb Joseph	320	0.8	1.6	0.8
	The Rest	64	0.1	0.1	0

Chance: 50%

Fangraphs sees both Joseph and Sisco as competent catchers.  The Orioles off season long search to displace Sisco from the roster is not coming up as a good idea in the models.  Here, though, I decided not to push anyone's performance in the positive direction.  Everyone sticks to their 50th percentile projection.  The group does improve by 0.8 WAR.  Why?  Well, they do not consider pitch framing in their estimates and Joseph is routinely an excellent pitch framer, so the gain here is simply recognizing Joseph's total value.

First Base

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
1B	Chris Davis	476	1.4	1.9	0.5
	Trey Mancini	189	0.3	0.5	0.2
	Mark Trumbo	35	0.1	0.2	0.1

Chance: 40% (Davis), 40% (Mancini), 50% (Trumbo)

I nudged each player here.  Davis' 0.5 WAR improvement comes from the idea that perhaps now that his core is healthy again that his first step comes back, improving his defensive play.  Mancini's bump of 0.2 is based on the assumption that last year's level of offensive performance is real.  Trumbo's bump comes from him bouncing back and performing slightly better at first base.  If you are counting, we are now at 78.5 wins.

Second base

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
2B	Jonathan Schoop	644	3	5	2
	Engelb Vielma	56	-0.1	-0.1	0

Chance: 10%

The model seems to think that Schoop is in for a regression to his career line.  We are going to say last year's performance was not only real, but also add another win for expected modest growth in talent.

Shortstop

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
SS	Manny Machado	644	5.3	7.3	2
	Engelb Vielma	56	-0.1	-0.1	0

Chance: 20%

For Machado, we are throwing in there a 7.3 WAR which would just barely be the highest WAR of his career.  This assumption is the assumption that Machado is actually one of the best players in baseball, which may not well be true.  In this scenario, he is.  And, we are up to 82.5 wins.

Third Base

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
3B	Tim Beckham	644	1.9	3.4	1.5
	Danny Valencia	35	0.1	0.1	0
	Engelb Vielma	21	-0.1	-0.1	0

Chance: 20%

The projection for Beckham is that his offensive talent level will regress.  Instead, we decided that the average of his entire 2017 is his true talent level.  So, that bumps him up 1.5 wins.

Left Field

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
LF	Trey Mancini	385	1	1.6	0.6
	Joey Rickard	140	-0.1	0	0.1
	Austin Hays	105	0.1	0.2	0.1
	Anthony Santander	70	0.1	0.1	0.0

Chance: 40% (Mancini), 70% (Hays) 

In left field, the benefit comes from the aforementioned Trey Mancini replicating his 2017 season. In addition, the assumption here is that Rickard will reduce his playing time and Hays will see more with a plus arm.  The club is now at 84.8 wins.

Center Field

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
CF	Adam Jones	630	2	2.6	0.6
	Joey Rickard	35	0	0	0
	Austin Hays	35	0.1	0.1	0

Chance: 30%

Jones' isn't dead, yet. He feels happy.  Assuming his play in centerfield remains adequate and his bat leans more toward his second half high without actually duplicating it, we could potentially see something like his 2015 season (without the defense).  That would add a little bit to the pot.

Right Field

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
RF	Colby Rasmus	410	1.2	2.2	1
	Danny Valencia	210	0.1	0.1	0
	Joey Rickard	35	0	0	0
	Austin Hays	21	0	1	1
	Anthony Santander	14	0	0	0

Chance: 30% (Rasmus), 50% (Hays)

Projection models still like Rasmus' potential to reach back and deliver something similar to his 2015 season with the Astros.  His offensive demolition last year with the Rays is a bit more unlikely.  The rest of the pickup here is due to Hays spelling Valencia.  If Hays meets his mark and has a plus arm, he could deliver a win over 200 plus plate appearances.

Designated Hitter

		Projection		Change
		PA	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
DH	Mark Trumbo	539	0.6	1.6	1
	Chris Davis	112	0.2	0.2	0
	Trey Mancini	28	0	0	0
	Danny Valencia	21	0	0	0

Chance: 10% (Trumbo)

The model thinks there is about a 10% chance that Trumbo can perform a smidge below his 2016 career year.  This does not consider that he appears to not do well when playing as designated hitter.  Anyway, this gets us to 86.5 wins.

Starting Pitchers

		Projection		Change
		IP	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
SP	Kevin Gausman	177	2.6	3.1	0.5
	Dylan Bundy	177	2.1	3.1	1
	Andrew Cashner	138	0.7	2.2	1.5
	Chris Tillman	122	0.4	1.9	1.5
	Gabriel Ynoa	111	0.4	2.4	2
	The Rest	215	1	1	0

Chance: 15% (Gausman), 20% (Bundy), 10% (Cashner), 5% (Tillman)

A number of assumptions are being made here.  One, Gausman is assumed that he will match his career high performance.  Two, Bundy is assumed to meet last year's performance and add a half a win.  Three, Cashner is pushed to producing a normal year for himself.  Four, Tillman slides back to his 2012-2016 performances.  Five, well, the Orioles sign Alex Cobb.

Relief Pitchers

		Projection		Change
		IP	WAR	WAR	WAR diff
RP	Brad Brach	65	1.2	1.7	0.5
	Darren O'Day	65	1	1	0
	Mychal Givens	65	0.9	1.4	0.5
	Richard Bleier	45	0.2	0.2	0
	Zach Britton	40	0.5	1.5	1
	The Rest	240	0.1	0.1	0

Chance: 10% (Brach), 20% (Givens), 15% (Britton)

The bullpen hopes lie in the Orioles hitting their stride on their fearsome three: Brach, Givens, and Britton.  The likelihood of this seems about as good (or bad) as the starting pitching predicament.

Conclusion

And there you have it. If about 15-20 players hit their upper quartile projection, the Orioles will be expected to win about 95 of their games. That is the optimistic push of the finger. Of course, we have been talking about the chances of all of this happening. That would be less than a 0.000000001 chance of 95 games being won.