27 October 2017

The Camden Depot 2017/18 Blueprint for the Offseason

Every offseason we engage in an exercise.  We look at the previous season's payroll, payroll changes over the past few seasons, league-wide payroll changes, and local interest in the club.  From those variables, we set our sites on what next year's club could reasonably anticipate as an opening day payroll.  We then construct a plan with respect who is staying and who is leaving.  That plan though is restricted to free agent acquisitions due to the wide openness of possibilities of trades.  By ignoring the silliness of trade discussions, we root ourselves into a more realistic world.

For free agency, that realism is bounded by the BORAS model for contract projections.  The model over the years has been fairly accurate for pitchers (r2=0.86, median miss is 1.7 MM AAV).  The model for position players leaves something to be desired (but I have been constructing a second model for position players, but it is not included in this exercise--more on that in a later post, maybe next week).  These contract terms give us a better way to see what exactly is possible.

This year's plans:
Option 1 - So You Think Yu Can Pitch. Our very own Nate Delong put forward his plan, which is largely constructed around the notion that Yu Darvish is indeed an elite pitcher with strong support from Alex Cobb, a solid pitcher with a lot of red flags.  Though, the first rotation slot would be entering the Spring as an up for grabs opportunity.  Delong chooses to non-tender Zach Britton, which is within the realm of reason though is a direction I find highly unlikely, in order to shoehorn in the flexible depth targets Jon Jay and Howie Kendrick.
Option 2 - Put it All into Pitching and a Proven Veteran. Obviously, pitching is an issue and the Depot's Matt Kremnitzer concurs with that.  His plan targets Cobb, Lance Lynn, and Jason Vargas.  The first two are desirable targets and Vargas covers that strangely coveted southpaw starter (which really only has any importance in the playoffs and do you really have Vargas starting in the playoffs?).  To address the need for a good left handed batter who can provide some coverage for Trey Mancini and Austin Hays in the outfield, Curtis Granderson was pushed forward.  Granderson does fit the bill, but his collapse this season and exclusion from the Dodgers' World Series roster leaves doubt on how much is left in the tank.
Option 3 - Clearing out the Trumbo. Joe Wantz wanted to improve roster flexibility (one of my tender spots), so he decided to advocate for the release of Mark Trumbo (I have a harder time taking that direction).  That saves no money based on our blueprint rules, but it does open up roster space.  With the cash, he moves in first with Tyler Chatwood.  Four years feel steep, but he is a target that speaks to me.  He does not project as an expensive talent and his repertoire works far better outside of Denver.  Alex Cobb is the other rotation stabilizer and he solves the outfield with Jarrod Dyson.  Wantz also puts Eric Sogard and some fringe players to round out the roster.
Option 4 - Pushing Machado. Matt Perez' idea starts first with sliding Machado over to shortstop.  This opens the team up to adding a third baseman where Mike Moustakas is a solid option as well as pushing Tim Beckham into the utility role that the club wished Ryan Flaherty was.  The pitching solution then goes with the unspectacular, but potentially solid threesome of Chris Tillman, Ricky Nolasco, and Jaime Garcia.  Garcia is the kind of southpaw that, if the stars aligned, you could see starting a playoff game. The other two could work out if injuries are recoverable and pitchers reclaimed.
Option 5 - Veteran Presents. Our first reader submission was from H. Davis.  The main difference from above is the acquisition of CC Sabathia.  Rounding out the proposal are other heavy breakdown candidates like Lance Lynn and Curtis Granderson. Hector Santiago provides a cheap option to tick the lefty starter box and Fernando Abad helps make the bullpen a little deeper.
Option 6 - DJ and the Kids. S.L. Siler pumps in the second reader submission and it relies heavily on using the minor leaguers who have held their own at AA.  Supplementing that talent flow would be the aforementioned Chatwood, Cobb, and Sogard as well as Juan Nicasio as long-term bullpen depth.
Option 7 - From John. Reader submission from John has also declared that the most important target for the Orioles and the context they find themselves in would be CC Sabathia.  Cobb continues his role as best man.  Offensive solutions would include Kendrick and the mixed bag that is Jayson Werth.
Option 8 - You Had Me at Eduardo. Roger's submission hits on some of the regulars from this series: Jarrod Dyson, Jaime Garcia, Alex Cobb, and Chris Tillman.  His new wrinkle was the inclusion of poor man's Ben Zobrist, Eduardo Nunez.  As I mentioned before, I am a sucker for roster flexibility because it helps you when players go down to injury.  It is an approach that needs to be expressed.
When you group think this approach, one player immediately rises above the puddle of ideas: Alex Cobb.  Why Cobb?  For one thing, BORAS thinks he will be pretty cheap which is because he missed all of 2015 and nearly all of 2016.  BORAS finds that risky.  Second, when he does pitch, he pitches well.  Again, though, it must be noted he has never been particularly healthy and last year's 179.1 IP was his most in a season for his career as well as his most appearances (29).  That said, his performance is something to dream on.

Tyler Chatwood is the slightly less impressive twin brother of Cobb.  Chatwood also has trouble appearing in a full season, but he also has some shining attributes.  He throws hard and his stuff is actually pretty impressive outside the thin air of Denver.  BORAS recognizes his mile high challenges and tacks on another year in comparison to Cobb.  But, yes, you can dream on Chatwood, too.

And, yes, I agree with those two targets.  I think Darvish and Sabathia, while strong pitchers, both have caution attached to them that makes me feel uncomfortable paying what BORAS reckons they will earn.  Darvish has certainly had a wonderful time with the Dodgers, but it is hard for me to ignore what happened before then.  He still is a wonderful pitcher, but save me $7 million to patch a hole elsewhere and I will do that.  Sabathia's cost is lower, but he is at the point where he is at the threshold of a breakdown.  He has adapted to no longer being a flame thrower, but another mile or a reduction in spin could make him unplayable without a decent backup role.

This leaves us with a fifth slot to fill and not really a great set of options.  I hesitate to dedicate another multi-year contract to a starting pitcher.  I want more flexibility, not only this year if I have to let someone go, but also to next year where money may be falling off the payroll and another batch of starting pitchers could be available.  I also want the easier ability to cut bait if a fringe option like Miguel Castro truly emerges.  That leaves me with:
  • Francisco Liriano 1/5.8
  • Scott Feldman 1/5
  • Hector Santiago 1/4
  • Tyson Ross 1/3.4
  • Derek Holland 1/1.5
None of those really look any bit good.  I also think adding a left-handed starter for the purpose of having a left-handed starter is pointless unless you have a decent reason why you think said lefty is going to start a playoff game for you.  I have trouble seeing Liriano or Santiago in a playoff game.  Still, handing a lefty to the manager might be seen as at least listening to his wants, so I am going with Santiago.  He does not have the ceiling of Liriano, but Liriano showed that he is not useful as a bullpen arm and I'd rather save the extra change in someone who can at least get the ball over the plate.

Pitching Solutions:
Tyler Chatwood 4/41.9
Alex Cobb 3/31.1
Hector Santiago 1/4

On the offensive end, I love the idea of adding Eduardo Nunez.  This would put the infield in a needed area of flux where someone like Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, or Nunez could be explored as an option in right field.  Yes, Schoop has great footwork and tagging skills that would go unused in left field, but his range and ability to get down on balls is becoming an issue.  His arm is live enough for right field.  That said, adding Nunez into the starting mix makes a squad that is weak against right handed starters even weaker.  For me to ink Nunez, I would want to have a more balanced offensive approach that cannot be so easily stymied in late innings by a revolving door of flame throwing right handers.

That encourages me to leave the infield alone and instead look to improve the outfield.  An ever present concern has been defense as well as a longer term succession plan.  Curtis Granderson does not answer those problems for me.  His defense has tanked the last couple seasons, making him unworkable in centerfield but still capable with the glove and arm in the corners.  However, he has taken the Chris Davis plunge where his contact rate is so poor that his power no longer seems to play and it is a major question whether he can break the surface again.  The Dodgers have lost enough confidence in him that was left off the World Series roster.

This leaves Jarrod Dyson who is a league average or better hitter against right handers, but someone who against left handers should only be seen after prime time hours.  He provides near elite defense for every outfield position.  In a few blueprints, he was noted as an $8 million dollar player even though BORAS thinks he should be paid 12.6 MM.  It would be fair to assume that lower figure due to the platoon penalty players like him, Luis Valbuena, and others seem to pay for not being able to hit lefthanders.  However, in my blueprint I am securing all 12.6 MM funds for him.  Dyson also gets a two year deal, so if the club is left in a lurch next year for a centerfielder, he can fill that role.  He can also soak up innings in left field to rest Mancini (or push him to DH) and the same could be said about Hays in right field.

This would leave us with the following lineups:
vs. RHP
SS Beckham
3B Machado
2B Schoop
1B Davis
DH Mancini
CF Jones
COF Hays
COF Dyson
C Sisco
vs. LHP
SS Beckham
3B Machado
2B Schoop
1B Trumbo
DH Mancini
CF Jones
COF Hays
C Joseph
COF Santander
These lineups are decently strong but contain one major issue, which is that I have made Davis and Trumbo a very expensive (28 MM) platoon tandem at first base.  I think we can all settle into the truth that Davis has been disappointing for two seasons and his value against left handed pitching is atrocious.  Trumbo is less of a platoon hitter, but has shown consistently throughout his career that he has trouble performing while sitting most of the time on the bench.  He needs to be in the field, but he is a disaster in right field.  This leaves us with a very useful though expensive platoon at first base with both players available to fill in on same-hand starting pitcher days when someone needs a rest.  Davis could be a full time player as a 1B vs. RHP and DH vs. LHP with the latter happening if Santander or Hays forces Mancini to be in the field.  If Davis or Trumbo rock the world and go back to crushing the ball, then the lineup could be adjusted to give them more playing time.

Position Solutions:
Jarrod Dyson 2/25.2

In the end, I am fairly comfortable with this arrangement.  The rotation is still held together with duct tape and is set up for failure, but is put together with a high ceiling.  No, Cobb and Chatwood have never been workhorses, but they do show a high level of potential.  It may well be that grabbing Garcia and going in a different outfield direction would make more sense, but Dyson seems to provide a great deal of support for an outfield that needs a solid backup option for multiple positions.  Maybe I am not giving Cedric Mullins and D.J. Stewart enough respect, but I prefer going in with someone like Dyson picking up the slack.  Additionally, grabbing another starting pitcher would likely require a multi-year deal that locks the club into a rotation, which was a major issue last offseason.  This club simply cannot sign on eight starting pitchers like the Dodgers do.

Anyway, Mr. Duquette, let's get this done.

29 comments:

  1. Thank you for the complement on the Nunez choice. I realize that my plan was a shoehorn project, but that's why DD gets the big bucks. I really like your summaries of all the plans - makes them really easy to understand and promotes the logic they used. With regards to your final plan, it's very good. Obviously, based upon my plan, I'd trade out Chatwood for Garcia and Santiago for Tillman. The main reason is that it seems to me that Buck is going to lean heavily on his token LH SP regardless of whether he's a better option or not. The O's have a plethora of AAAA RH SPs to rotate in and out and even a couple of promising ones - Castro and Ramirez. The LH SPs are farther away or less promising. I think adding a solid, higher profile LH would work better with Buck's mindset. And Tillman is the highest upside/bounceback possibility out there, is low risk because of the AAAA options available, and most likely to stay put on a team friendly contract (I do think 1/3.4 or 2/6.8 is low but maybe Santiago money would work. 1/6 - his 2016 salary - would work). At his age, he has an enormous incentive to show that 2017 was an anomaly.

    Also, I think Dyson is essential. I hearken back to the early 90's Braves where a key element of their initial success was adding Otis Nixon who was an upper 30s speedster who could play magnificent CF defense and lead off. The whole defense gelled around him. Gently moving Adam out of CF and adding elite defense will make whatever pitchers we have more effective - especially the fly ball pitchers. Also, Adam automatically upgrades either corner.

    What concerns me the most about the roster you've constructed is just the point you made - an expensive 1B platoon. If you keep Trumbo then Hays will start in AAA and Mancini would be the DH and Trumbo would be the every day LF or RF. Heck I think Buck may put Jones in CF and Dyson in LF, but that's a different issue. Another point is that I think Mancini needs to play the field to see if he can develop into a replacement level OF - it's best for him and his future value and it's best for the O's. But that may not even be best if we call up or start the season with Hays. Then Mancini needs to show his chops at 1B and rotate DH with Davis. For any of this to happen, Trumbo must be traded. It's not the subject of this exercise, but that may be the key to really improving the roster and allowing others to more competently fill the gaps. It's not such a foreign idea after all we let N. Cruz go. Now it's time for DD to make his annual weirdly successful deal (Trumbo for Cleavenger, Gallardo for Smith, etc...). Maybe Trumbo for Valbuena? The Angels get a 1B and the O's get a LH hitting Super Util and about $3M in salary relief?

    BTW, it might not be a bad idea to sign JJ as a Super Util. He might be another candidate for a team friendly contract to stick around. We need someone who is close to starter quality to fill in for the eventual injury to a key player, most of whom are in the infield. Wilkerson might be the eventual candidate (nice AFL work), but may not be ready yet. Didn't JJ show that he could be effective in a reduced role during Sept? And he'll be a lot cheaper than Nunez.

    All that being said, you never mentioned the bullpen. Obviously, that's where the O's stand pat. But where do you think Angelos is on a 8-figure closer? Johnson was unceremoniously dumped after signing for $10M in arb. What's going to happen when Zach signs for $12.4M in arb? You guys pooh-pooh'd me on my suggestion of a Braves trade but how about Britton for a mid-level promise of a SP like Lucas Sims? That would be better than Johnson for Weeks from Oakland. Or maybe they could also give us Nicky back to even the salaries.

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  2. Love this breakdown/idea. I think the Davis/Trumbo platoon makes sense. In the worst case scenario one of them finds their stroke again and wrestles more playing time away from the other.

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  3. Roger - I think the bullpen can be answered with AAA fodder and some crossed fingers for O'Day and Britton to regain form. Add those two to Givens and Brach, you have a solid bullpen. Add in Castro and Hart and some competition and it fills it out. Yes, the bullpen does not appear to be elite anymore, but I think it is fine and the club has bigger holes to fill. If the club is humming at the deadline, then they could crack open the farm and add another arm if needed.

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  4. I have long advocated a 1b platoon of Davia/Trumbo even when Alvarez was cluttering the roster.
    It is an obvious if expensive solution, but for some reason Dan and/or Buck absolutely refuses to even consider the idea so it seems to be a nonstarter.
    Also, I strongly feel that replacing Zack Britain with a less expensive ground ball reliever would save money, increase control, bring back at least a modest return, and the drop off would not be too severe.
    Mediocre teams cannot afford $12 million in one arm sitting in the bullpen, used only 60 innings a season.

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  5. Sogard has resigned with the Brewers, so he's sogone!

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  6. Jon - I agree with you (hence my reference to standing pat). What I am asking is what you think Angelos will think of a $12.4M reliever? Like PT said, most teams won't want a $12M 60 innings pitcher. I guess you don't want to dive into a fruitless discussion on trades and the O's have stated an intent to not trade Britton, but I could swear some of the same talk was happening when Johnson was signed and then traded for nuttin'. I just want them to get something positive in return this time. Honestly, trading Johnson gave us Britton. I really think trading Trumbo will give us Hays. Maybe trading Britton will lead to some great revelation (and maybe Unicorns are real.....). All the DD detractors have to admit he's pulled a few rabbits out of his hat - time for another one.

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  7. There's a big difference between Zach Britton and Jim Johnson. You don't really want to spend a lot for one year of Johnson. For Britton? It's not as big of a deal, especially since this is sort of an all-in season for this team's core.

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  8. They need to trade him before he walks away and get nothing for him.

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  9. I find that to be a bigger deal for someone like Machado than someone like Britton who had his value affected last season from not being able to stay healthy. Why would a team pay close to full price for him right now? The O's need him anyway, and could always move at the deadline if he doesn't get hurt again.

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  10. I agree that not including trades puts a restriction of movement. Teams like the Dodgers have traded 70 or 80 times since the new regime took over and it has been a major factor in their success. That said, it is insanely difficult to come up with reasonable deals because not only do you need to devise value (which is fairly straight forward) but you also need to properly estimate how much a player is wanted by specific teams (which is near impossible). In our recent history, I would not have imagined the Tim Beckham deal happening without being told of it before it went down. I would not have imagined the Gallardo for Smith deal. Trumbo for Clevenger was also a surprise. These deals a month or two out are not likely to be predicted. Even when I hear of trade discussion, teams can go through many iterations and have wildly different understandings of how close a deal is. Upon first hearing about Beckham, my assumption was that it was not going to happen or that the Orioles would have to up their ante.

    So all this gnashing about trades for this exercise comes down to this: I cannot fathom a reasonable way to include them in this exercise. Therefore, they are outside the scope here and are not pertinent.

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    1. Jon, an unrelated question:
      How do you feel about the Beckham trade? He was splendid when we got him but his defense was suspect.
      I have no idea how much of an outlier his offense was, nor whether his defense is really as bad as some have said, and I read nothing about his alleged bad attitude making an appearance.
      But the Rays are a smart team and they didn't give up on him without good reason.
      So far, though, it seems like a genuine win. What say you?

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    2. PT - I think the Beckham deal was a win. I also consider him a good role player. A rich man's Ryan Flaherty or a poor man's Ben Zobrist.

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  11. Jon, all you say is true and not trying to "change" the exercise. On a topic related to this exercise, though, you haven't addressed the Tillman question. Don't you think Tillman can be had cheap on a one year contract and has a lot of upside if he gets healthy? Wouldn't that be better than bringing in Santiago (ignoring the LH issue)?

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    1. Yes. Tillman will be cheap. Yes. Tillman adapted to his chronic shoulder injury and rebounded. Will he rebound again from this further deterioration of his shoulder? I doubt it.

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    2. In the end...it is a matter of how you want to throw away 4 MM. For a righty? I would probably just go with the fringe starter chain.

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  12. Love the analysis above. I'm not optimistic about next year, but I will point out that Buck, while not perfect, has done a helluva job. Last 6 years under Buck: Os, Red Sox and Yankees have all made playoffs 3 times. Amount spent: Yanks: $1.3B. Red Sox: $1.1B. Os: $700M. He's done a lot with comparatively little.

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  13. Ah, but one thing leads to the other. If you doubt that Tillman will rebound then you'd rather spend money on Santiago. But Santiago only pitched 70 innings last year has never had a FIP less than 4.29 in his entire career, only once had a WHIP less than 1.3, led the league in HRs given up once, led the league in walks once, and had his last good year in 2015 (whereas Tillman's last good year was 2016). Santiago has a higher floor but no ceiling beyond what he has done. Santiago may be cheaper than Miley but he's not as good a pitcher. He is a bit younger but not a better pitcher. Tillman is a better pitcher that had a worse year. Basically, Tillman has a lower floor and a higher ceiling.

    If a lefty is such a big deal then go get a good one (Garcia). If it's not then go for the better pitcher if he's RH.

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    1. It really depends on how far you think a pitcher can go. Santiago is in a bind, but his stuff can work. Tillman looked terrible and his shoulder looks worse. There is eventually a break point and I think Tillman is closer to that.

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  14. Miley was the WORST starter in MLB this past season, so Santiago would be an improvement.

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  15. Elisabeth, actually, they were about the same. Miley had an ERA+ of 77 and Santiago's was 78. Miley had more walks but also more strikeouts than Santiago. Plus he pitched a whole season (157 innings) whereas Santiago only pitched 70 innings.

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  16. Miley was not the worst starter in the majors this season. That's hyperbole.

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    1. Miley sure had a lot of competition on his own team.

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  17. When you're arguing which of two pitchers was/was not "worst in MLB" it's a sure sign that you want neither.
    Although non-tender questions are outside the scope of this exercise, I feel very strongly that there is value to be had there. And I wise GM will pay very close attention to castoffs from the other teams.

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    1. Wade Miley was about in the 25th percentile. Nowhere near worst, but not good. He can muster as a 4th or 5th starter for many teams, but his sink in control will limit him to a one year deal.

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    2. I mean...guys...Tillman and Ubaldo were significantly worse. Lots of pitchers were.

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    3. I wasn't suggesting Miley was or wasn't worst in MLB, but f he's bad enough to- however inaccurately-even be in the conversation, then we don't want him.
      I would much rather take a flyer on an injury return than Miley or Santiago. Maybe Tyson Ross, who had a terrible season not returning from injury, might be worth a try?
      Or someone like that.

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  18. OK, so you think Miley is going to get any more than Santiago? If you had a choice, do you go with Miley or Santiago at the same price? If they can get Miley to cut the walks by 20%, he has upped his K rate and looked like a solid pitcher whenever he didn't walk anyone (granted - didn't happen very often).

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    1. It would not surprise me to see Miley get a 1/8 deal. That said, the Orioles had their shot and did not appear to be able to improve Miley from August 2016 through October 2017, so if Miley is reboundable I doubt the Orioles have the means.

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  19. I don't think it was ever reported in the press, but Miley was effectively in the trainers office from May until October, so he fits the whole "injured player" motif.

    That said an underperforming player who once performed is Miley as well even when you ignore the injury. The hope every team has for him is to straighten out his mechanics, which no one has ever really succeeded at doing.

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