Monster-cini: Projecting Trey Mancini's Next Ten Years

One of the shining bright spots this year has been the emergence of Trey Mancini as a bona fide major leaguer.  It has been a development that has surprised many in the field.  Mancini has a solid approach, a shorter swing than in the past, and has overcome problems others have foreseen with his decreasing athleticism.  Yes, his time in the outfield seems to be dictated more by the presence of Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis than by any actual ability to play left field, but when you have a decent bat then the manager needs to find you a place to play.

Looking forward, it may be useful to try to envision who Mancini might well be.  Using his current line:

Standard Batting

Year	Age	Tm	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
2016	24	BAL	15	3	.357	.400	1.071
2017	25	BAL	458	22	.295	.345	.513
2 Yr	2 Yr	2 Yr	473	25	.297	.347	.531
162	162	162	628	33	.297	.347	.531

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2017.

I tried to find batters aged 25 with similar profiles.  The closest statistical profiles I found were: Rico Brogna, Mike Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Richie Sexson, Mike Marshall, Cory Snyder, Stephen Drew (?), Raul Mondesi, and Al Martin.  I used this population to predict the average outcome for Mancini each year.  What we get is below:

Year	Age	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	WAR
2018	26	515	22	.269	.332	.468	2.3
2019	27	561	23	.272	.341	.477	2.8
2020	28	538	21	.274	.350	.468	2.8
2021	29	433	17	.283	.347	.481	2.4
2022	30	485	18	.267	.337	.455	2.1
2023	31	411	15	.258	.320	.444	1.3
2024	32	417	14	.251	.318	.424	1.0
2025	33	317	11	.249	.319	.421	0.7
2026	34	310	8	.227	.291	.363	-0.2
2027	35	273	7	.210	.270	.338	-0.7

The above projection would be rather ideal for the club even though the first two seasons will experience some redundancy with Davis and Trumbo both around.  However, it is more than likely that Mancini should be able to slide into 1B or DH in 2020 depending on how Chris Davis ages.  This version of Mancini is the kind of player a team like the Orioles will need if they chose to throw down trailers full of cash at Machado.

Now, what would an exceptional career look like?  I took the above pool and cut it in half and kept the five players with the best career moving forward.What would a best outcome career look like? I took Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Richie Sexson, Raul Mondesi, and Al Martin.

Year	Age	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	WAR
2018	26	607	31	.291	.357	.421	4.3
2019	27	617	30	.284	.366	.518	4.7
2020	28	694	31	.288	.375	.506	5.3
2021	29	483	23	.304	.371	.538	4.0
2022	30	625	28	.277	.353	.488	3.7
2023	31	644	26	.272	.335	.479	3.1
2024	32	554	21	.270	.344	.463	2.8
2025	33	424	18	.268	.348	.462	2.1
2026	34	425	13	.242	.313	.396	0.5
2027	35	332	9	.228	.297	.372	-0.1

That would be a stunning career and one that would keep the playoff window open for the club in the years to come.  That said, let's do a different sub-grouping.  That sub-grouping would be the low walk, high strikeout group: Raul Mondesi, Cory Snyder, Richie Sexson, Rico Brogna, and Mike Marshall.

Year	Age	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	WAR
2018	26	487	24	.259	.311	.471	1.8
2019	27	549	22	.264	.310	.456	1.6
2020	28	556	24	.256	.323	.458	2.1
2021	29	410	16	.265	.321	.456	1.5
2022	30	474	18	.253	.326	.444	1.6
2023	31	353	14	.243	.309	.433	0.7
2024	32	383	13	.233	.296	.400	0.2
2025	33	245	6	.216	.278	.343	-0.5
2026	34	265	7	.199	.255	.329	-0.9
2027	35	278	7	.189	.244	.312	-1.4

Let us pretend I did not run those numbers.  However, he would still be a useful role player.