Should the Orioles Consider Trading that Machado Guy?

By now, you've probably seen or read David Schoenfield's column, adorned with the splashy headline: "Real or Not?  The Orioles should trade Manny Machado..."  Believe it or not, I have a few cents to weigh on the issue (and, I promise it won't be as rant-y as Monday).  

Before we begin to address this, let's preface the discussion with the reality that - even with their June free-fall - the Birds sit a mere 2.5 games out of the Wild Card.  So, in essence, they are really just one good week away from forestalling this conversation.  

Peter Angelos has been historically-adverse to the idea of selling, fearing repercussions at the box office.  Trading Manny, or even putting him on the market, would raise the biggest white flag possible.

As Mr. Schoenfield points out, rival-GM's aren't exactly camping out on Dan Duquette's doorstep to inquire about anyone else.  The list of Baltimore's needs dwarfs their assets.  And, unfortunately for them, other clubs know this.  

That, coupled with Manny's early-season struggles, will depress his value.  If he was killing the ball, right now, it would be a different conversation.  But, even a high school economics student could tell you it's bad business to sell off a stock when it's low.  

Having said all that, it's still Manny Machado.  Elite third basemen don't grow on trees, or at least any  botanical species I know of.  The main factor affecting trades is that his impending free-agency limits the number of clubs who would be interested.  Also, the other team would have to have a need on the left side of the infield.

And, they would have to believe one or both of the following items:

1) They will be contenders either this season or next

2) They think they can sign him to a long-term deal

On Baltimore's side, they would start negotiations by asking for the moon.  Their goal, first and foremost, should be to add as many blue-chip prospects as possible, in order to prop up their flimsy farm system.

Personally, given the Orioles' recent track record of developing and nurturing pitchers, I hope they make position players the centerpiece of any deal.  These days, clubs are holding on tight to those types of players.  Baltimore could reasonably expect to receive one A prospect and maybe one or two B-/C+ types in return.  

The number of teams that meet all those factors is pretty low.  My colleague, Matt Kremnitzer, wrote out one such scenario yesterday.  Houston would be an intriguing trade partner.  Here are a few scenarios with two other clubs: St. Louis and (yes) those damned New York Yankees. 

If they were going the pitching route, the Cardinals have a pair of SP prospects on the cusp of the big leagues in Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver.  The Cardinals aren't always big swingers on the trade market, but may feel pressure from their fan-base and/or ownership to shake things up after watching the Cubs become darlings of their division. 

As for a deal involving the Yankees, I understand the emotions as well as the practical issues involved (17 games against a motivated Manny = yikes).  However, they do have the trifecta of positional need (no offense to Chase Headley), positional prospects galore and, yes, gobs of money.  With the Yankees in contention for the pennant, would they consider parting with one or two of the following: Clint Frazier/Blake Rutherford/Gleyber Torres?

Obviously, this is all hypothetical.  Debating the merits of trades is probably America's second-favorite pastime.  As the clock continues to tick, the noise around Manny will only increase.