2017 CRAP Positional Collegiate Rankings for the Draft

This will be a short post because I actually somehow thought the draft was tomorrow and I have only a lunch break to push this out.  Anyway, I developed CRAP last year.  You can read about it here (add soon).  In sum, the model worked well last year, but I used a curated list handed to me that included collegiate positional players on the top 100 rankings.  This year, I expanded the list from about 20 to 83.  This list also differs because it includes players in collegiate conferences I did not use when constructing the model.  Effectively, anyone outside of the ACC, SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12 did not have this model consider them.  To compensate for that, I tried to develop conference strength ratings, but that is not related to future performance.  It only is related to performance in season across collegiate conferences.

Anyway, the model top 10 list for tonight:

Name	Po.	BA	xRating	xSlash(HiA)
Joe Dunand	SS	130	50/55	276/351/461
Will Toffey	3B	162	50	285/402/439
Adam Haseley	OF	8	50	296/401/453
J.J. Schwarz	C	374	50	255/345/393
Garrett Benge	3B	NR	50	275/388/417
Mike Papierski	C	NR	50	247/362/389
Brent Rooker	OF	45	45/50	284/374/485
Chris Williams	C	118	45/50	249/309/412
Brendan McKay	1B	3 (P)	45/50	308/423/492
Drew Ellis	3B	66	45/50	269/359/434

You might wonder where the rest of the top collegiate bats for BA were projected.

Name	Po.	BA	xRating	xSlash(HiA)
Evan White	IB	12	40	248/311/390
Keston Hiura	OF	14	45	279/378/422
Pavin Smith	1B	15	40/45	275/373/412
Jeren Kendall	OF	18	40	245/309/384
Logan Warmoth	SS	19	45/50	261/332/398
Jake Burger	3B	20	40	228/308/370
Stuart Fairchild	OF	43	40/45	257/329/410
Brian Miller	OF	44	40/45	264/345/383
Kevin Merrell	SS	51	40	230/302/335
Greg Deichmann	OF	64	45	266/368/430
Gavin Sheets	1B	65	45	282/395/461
K.J. Harrison	C	68	45	263/338/387
J.J. Matijevic	1B	70	45/50	302/366/464
Michael Gigliotti	OF	71	35	211/304/312

As you can see, there is a whole lot more jumbled around this year than it was last year.  One major reason is that there really are no standouts this season.  Last year, the model has players flirting with the 60s and this year that is not the case.  However, it appears that there is a large number of fringe MLB starters this year which did not seem present last year.

Personally, I am a bit surprised.  I thought Brian Miller and Keston Hiura would perform better according to the model, but that was not the case.  It also is a bit unsettling as a modeler that nine of the top ten in the CRAP top ten are players that Baseball America thought were not first day selections.

Oh well, let's check back tonight and then in a few years.