The good news is that this injury does not greatly impact Hardy defensively. His throwing arm is fine and his game is largely one of proper positioning with utilization of that arm. Hardy likely is slightly limited going to his glove side and back, but he should still perform as a plus defensive shortstop. The problem is hitting. Dealing with the pain, Hardy slashed 213/246/306 (46 RC+). His hitting was so awful that it has canceled out his defensive performance, leaving him with an fWAR of 0.0. That is concerning because Hardy has two years left on his deal and a commitment of 28.5 MM.
Do we have any idea as to whether Hardy's bat can bounce back? Labrum tears are consider a near death sentence for pitchers, but not as bad for position players. That said, there appears to be a few caveats. A recent study looked at pitchers and position players with labrum tears with comparison between nonsurgical and surgical approaches. For injuries where surgery is possible, pitchers returned to form 7% of the time (48% returned to throw a pitch professionally). Surgery for position players resulted in a return to form 54% of the time (85% return for at least a plate appearance. Hardy was in the latter group back in 2004.
In 2015, Hardy is in the non-surgical group. This is not as optimistic. For pitchers who took a non-surgical approach, 22% returned to form (40% returned). For position players, 26% returned to form (39% returned). Again, we do not know the exact specifics of Hardy's injury. We simply know that he is a position player and he is treating himself nonsurgically, so there are assumptions. That said, it appears that Hardy might have a one in four shot being a useful shortstop and a much greater chance that he is simply a major league quality glove with a HiA ball bat. A Paul Janish, but making twenty times more.
The question now stands as to what can the Orioles do? A trade seems unlikely. Hardy would probably require the club to send about 20 MM with him to make a deal work. As such, he is either on the active roster or on the disabled list. It would not be surprising to see him open the season on the 60 day DL. Maybe after making themselves sure he can no longer play, he might be released at some point in 2016. Needless to say, the club has now sunk about 12% of their roster into a player who is likely a fringe Major Leaguer.
How about bring up Lattimore to play second and let Schoop/Machado cover 3rd and SS? Hardy could be utility instead of Flaherty since he's currently hitting about as much as Flaherty. That way, you offset the salary hit and improve the team. Flaherty can be on the roster when Hardy is on the DL. Buck uses Flaherty too much as it is.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if it's fair to give the Orioles grief over the Hardy deal. That looked like a bargain when it was consummated. If he had went to free agency, someone would have given him a lot more.
ReplyDeleteStill, the situation really sucks. I was noticing that Janish and Hardy, at this point, appear to be about equivalent players. It's cool that Janish is such a good defender and can make a little contact, but that comparison is really concerning for Hardy.
Anyway, maybe Janish should replace Flaherty as the util guy for next year? I bet he could play some of those bonus flaherty positions (LF, RF, 3B, maybe 3rd catcher), though it is worth noting he's never played the outfield at any level. Flaherty obviously has the power edge, but otherwise it's all Janish.
Also, other Anon:
Latimore really isn't a big league player. It's unlikely that he'll ever play in the majors for the O's. However, if we're bringing up Bowie guys in crazy hypotheticals, how about this one: Move Sisco to 2B (played it in highschool, or maybe SS, I forget), Schoop to third, and Machado to short. Sisco really can't catch very well, no matter what the Orioles say. He has a much better chance at surviving major league pitching than Latimore. Sisco reminds me of a young Joe Panik, in terms of his approach at the plate.
Lattimore is a quality AA player, but it seems unlikely that he is remarkably different than he was before entering this organization. I doubt he is anything more than a cup of coffee type player.
ReplyDeleteSchoop does not seem to have great reaction. That was his issue when he has played third base before. The arm works, but his first movement is pretty delayed. I think he would be a poor fit there even though a few years back that was where scouts assumed he would belong.
Flaherty is used because he has to be used. He is useful as a bench player with considerable flexibility.
Second Anon:
ReplyDeleteI mean, I questioned it at the time because it was dedicating close to market value for a commodity that already existed in Manny and that Hardy was reaching a point where injuries become much more commonplace. So, yeah, I think it is fair. Now, the deal was slightly under market value and in a vacuum it looked very good, but questionable with respect to roster context.
First anon, here. Since the point was offsetting salary that is fixed, it seems like at least giving someone like Lattimore a chance because he costs so little and is three years younger than Flaherty. Flaherty put up similar numbers in AA (granted at 24yo) but for all his "flexibility", he doesn't really add anything beyond replacement level. Using Janish doesn't make sense unless you totally eliminate Hardy's salary. If Sisco could play 2B then that makes as much sense. But that is how the up and coming teams offset big salary players - taking chances on young guys with some potential. Sometimes Duquette has been able to do this with AAAA players, but not always, as this season has shown. The other way might be to teach Parades how to play defense and not swing at high pitches out of the zone. A lot of problems will be resolved with this team when Mancini comes up. Signing Davis and letting him play OF with Mancini at 1B solves two problems - corner OF and offsetting Davis' huge salary. Walker is not an answer - too old, development stalled. Mancini is much closer to Machado in projection (granted at 21 vs. 19 but Machado's AA stats were not that great and Mancini's are significantly better than Walker's at 21 vs. 23). One way to win is to have the best farm in the majors and produce a lot of somewhat above replacement players or focus on pitching and let the hitting take care if itself (see KC, Houston, Mets) or have a few stars and a lot of replacement level players which is where the Orioles seem to be going. Davis, Jones, Machado, Jimenez, and an ace pitcher should take 80% of the payroll (yes, in this scenario, Hardy is a problem). Filling the rest of the lineup with Gaussman, Schoop, Mancini, Joseph, Britton, Wilson/Wright, Clevenger, Paredes, Givens, J Garcia, Brach, etc... would keep the payroll in line. Hopefully there would be space for Pearce and O'Day, too, and Bundy comes back and makes a real impact. Find another Rule 5 and a few Duquette AAAA players would round out the roster.
ReplyDeleteFirst anon, here. Since the point was offsetting salary that is fixed, it seems like at least giving someone like Lattimore a chance because he costs so little and is three years younger than Flaherty. Flaherty put up similar numbers in AA (granted at 24yo) but for all his "flexibility", he doesn't really add anything beyond replacement level. Using Janish doesn't make sense unless you totally eliminate Hardy's salary. If Sisco could play 2B then that makes as much sense. But that is how the up and coming teams offset big salary players - taking chances on young guys with some potential. Sometimes Duquette has been able to do this with AAAA players, but not always, as this season has shown. The other way might be to teach Parades how to play defense and not swing at high pitches out of the zone. A lot of problems will be resolved with this team when Mancini comes up. Signing Davis and letting him play OF with Mancini at 1B solves two problems - corner OF and offsetting Davis' huge salary. Walker is not an answer - too old, development stalled. Mancini is much closer to Machado in projection (granted at 21 vs. 19 but Machado's AA stats were not that great and Mancini's are significantly better than Walker's at 21 vs. 23). One way to win is to have the best farm in the majors and produce a lot of somewhat above replacement players or focus on pitching and let the hitting take care if itself (see KC, Houston, Mets) or have a few stars and a lot of replacement level players which is where the Orioles seem to be going. Davis, Jones, Machado, Jimenez, and an ace pitcher should take 80% of the payroll (yes, in this scenario, Hardy is a problem). Filling the rest of the lineup with Gaussman, Schoop, Mancini, Joseph, Britton, Wilson/Wright, Clevenger, Paredes, Givens, J Garcia, Brach, etc... would keep the payroll in line. Hopefully there would be space for Pearce and O'Day, too, and Bundy comes back and makes a real impact. Find another Rule 5 and a few Duquette AAAA players would round out the roster.
ReplyDeleteHey, second Anon here. The point I was making is that Latimore was a 26yr old at Bowie putting up very good, but not eye-popping numbers. Very unlikely his skill set was translate positively at the major league level. I like the Sisco or Paredes suggestion better. The Orioles need to figure out the way to get the most out of Paredes, he really does have some talent. If he just stops over-swinging and chasing, he could be a very dangerous bat. Looking at his advanced metrics, he's been least awful at 2B or RF. In 9 LF innings he's been best of all, but that isn't a useful sample size. So yeah, I think the Orioles just need to commit to a position for him and hammer it in.
ReplyDeleteI also like your idea about putting Davis in RF and Mancini at 1B. Christian Walker isn't any more than a less-athletic Steve Pearce (minus his 2014 season). Could be a decent bench bat, PH against lefties but definitely not our 1B of the future. If we somehow manage to re-sign Davis, I'd like to see Mancini at first and Davis in right come opening day 2016.
I also agree that most of those players you mentioned could be useful and would allow us to commit big money to Davis and maybe a pitcher like Brett Anderson. I also really think the Orioles will re-sign O'day. Buck's had some strong quotes lately about how much we'd miss Darren if he left.
A bullpen of Britton, O'day, Givens, Brach, Drake, (LHP), and Bundy/Wilson/Wright could be totally dominant, especially if Givens continues to improve. He's as good of a relief prospect as you get. I loved Harpers quote about how hard it was to face Givens. Having Givens is almost like having another lefty: vs RHB: .174/.208/.319 vs LHB .205/.273/.282
Also, to the folks at Camden Depot, I would love to see an article discussing Givens' success/how he gets guys out now that there's a 30 inning sample size.
Also, has anyone else noticed the insane amount of innings Brach and Givens have pitched this year? Givens: 87.1! Brach: 78.2
For Givens those are Dellin Betances kind of inning totals (90, 84 the last two years). Very, very impressive
One more thing, if you project Givens MLB numbers over a full season, you get:
ReplyDelete6-0 1.80 ERA/1.74 FIP, 93 IP with 117 K's and 19 BBs
Givens needs another pitch against lefties. His slider and changeup are both less effective against lefties than righties and I don't see how he can remain dominant against lefties with only one pitch.
ReplyDeleteI see him as decent against lefties, very strong against righties and as a seventh-eighth inning guy in the bullpen. Not bad but I suspect some will be disappointed. I don't see how you can have a bullpen with O'Day, Givens and Brach in it unless you have a few lefties to compliment it. If the Orioles do resign O'Day then Brach should be a trade candidate.
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