Chris Davis on Path to Fall Short of Mark Reynolds

Last summer, Baltimore was abuzz with the possibility of Chris Davis challenging Barry Bonds' single season home run record.  As the season progress, Davis fell off pace, but still wound up with a franchise record 53 home runs.  This year, he is also on pace to challenge a single season homerun records: most homeruns by a player batting less than .200.

Here is the list as of August 12th:

Rk	Player	HR	BA	Year	Age	Tm	OBP	SLG
1	Mark Reynolds	32	.198	2010	26	ARI	.320	.433
2	Mark McGwire	29	.187	2001	37	STL	.316	.492
3	Carlos Pena	28	.196	2010	32	TBR	.325	.407
4	Rob Deer	25	.179	1991	30	DET	.314	.386
5	Ruben Rivera	23	.195	1999	25	SDP	.295	.406
6	Dan Uggla	22	.179	2013	33	ATL	.309	.362
7	Chris Davis	21	.197	2014	28	BAL	.302	.406
8	J.P. Arencibia	21	.194	2013	27	TOR	.227	.365
9	Carlos Pena	19	.197	2012	34	TBR	.330	.354
10	Mike Schmidt	18	.196	1973	23	PHI	.324	.373

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/12/2014.

At the moment, Davis is on target to fall short and tie Mark McGwire with 29 home runs.  Of course, Mark McGwire was a bit more impressive in that he accomplished that while playing only 97 games.  Also, at a batting average of .197, Davis is at risk of beefing up his batting average with only a couple hits falling in.  Rob Deer's 1991 season and Dan Uggla's 2013 campaign had a lot more buffer room.

Actually, when you look at it, the list is pretty solid.  One should expect that.  In order to get enough at bats to be on this list, you had to have earned a great deal of rope to hit so poorly and still play.  Each of these players held great promise or had performed quite well leading up to that season.  Here is a run-down:

Mark Reynolds - Fresh off a 44 HR / 24 SB campaign with MVP votes
Mark McGwire - Previous 3 seasons were All Star worthy with 167 HR
Carlos Pena - Appears twice, major power with an All Star appearance
Rob Deer - Always hit a lot of home runs with solid defense
Ruben Rivera - Major prospect with a great deal of potential
Dan Uggla - Big contract and a former very good player
Chris Davis - Monster 53 HR season the year before and no real options
J.P. Arencibia - Youngish player for former shine playing out the string
Mike Schmidt - Big time prospect with solid defense

My bet is that Davis will hit better these last seven weeks.  It simply is very difficult to have performed as well as he did last year and then completely fall apart like he has.  He should get better unless there is a clear reason why he has done so poorly.  I am not aware of a specific injury issue, so I assume he has had a bad stretch.  I feel confidant enough in that assumption that I would support the club using this blip as a way to try to get Davis to take a more reasonable extension.