Last week, Jon made an interesting observation on Twitter:
#Orioles JJ Hardy is 171 PA away from being the first SS since 2010 to have over 400 PA and no home runs. Second since 1995.
— Camden Depot (@CamdenDepot) June 12, 2014
Hardy is currently batting .285/.313/.355 (.296 wOBA). His .332 BABIP is certainly helping (career .276) to inflate those numbers somewhat, but considering he hasn't hit for much power at all, his batting line could look a whole lot worse. (He's also definitely still valuable defensively at shortstop.)He's currently just one of three qualified major leaguers who haven't homered yet (the other two are Adeiny Hechavarria and Norichika Aoki). His homerless streak is also up to 83 games. His previous high before that was 42 games in 2005. Hardy is likely to hit at least one home run in the next few weeks, or at least hit just one before the end of the season. But what if he doesn't?
Since the expansion era (1961), only six players have had seasons in which they received at least 600 plate appearances, didn't hit a single homer, yet still had an on-base percentage over .300 and a slugging percentage over .350. Here they are:
| Rk | Player | HR | PA | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | BB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Pierre | 0 | 729 | .331 | .353 | 2007 | 29 | LAD | NL | 162 | 33 | .293 | .685 |
| 2 | Harold Reynolds | 0 | 677 | .359 | .369 | 1989 | 28 | SEA | AL | 153 | 55 | .300 | .728 |
| 3 | Ozzie Smith | 0 | 706 | .392 | .383 | 1987 | 32 | STL | NL | 158 | 89 | .303 | .775 |
| 4 | Frank Taveras | 0 | 702 | .313 | .353 | 1978 | 28 | PIT | NL | 157 | 29 | .278 | .666 |
| 5 | Dave Cash | 0 | 709 | .343 | .375 | 1977 | 29 | MON | NL | 153 | 52 | .289 | .719 |
| 6 | Greg Gross | 0 | 676 | .393 | .377 | 1974 | 21 | HOU | NL | 156 | 76 | .314 | .770 |
The most recent was Juan Pierre in 2007. And it didn't happen a single time in the 1990s.
Unless something goes horribly wrong, Hardy will hit a home run at some point in 2014. But there are some things to be concerned about, especially when it comes to deciding whether to re-sign him. If he's no longer the same player who can hit 20-25 home runs, he may not be in Baltimore in 2015.
This season has been something of an anomaly for J.J. -- on both sides of the ball really. The production is way down; and has 4 throwing errors (7 total) through 540 innings compared to 3 throwing errors over 2500 innings in 2011 and 2012. Not horrible, but on pace to be this player's worst defensive season.
ReplyDeleteGiven the big drop off in production, unsustainable BABIP, career low BB%, coupled with the questionable back, age, etc. how does this team proceed?
Trading him at a low-point in his value seems like a mistake, unless of course a contender had an immediate need at SS.
Is there any realistic way the O's can get him for less than 3 years? And would they still want to?
If this club is not ready for the Machado to SS transition would a 2yr/15m kind of deal for Hardy be a consideration? Fan Graphs has his relative value at 6.1m per year (based on this year). For a year or so, it seems to make sense to hang on; but, the direction of his production and age has to provide pause for thought.
I'm not sure why Hardy would take a two-year deal instead of hitting the open market. The best course of action for the O's may just be to extend him the qualifying offer after the season and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteIf they really don't want to move Machado to shortstop, then perhaps that changes things.
He's having a similar year to 2012. He's not as good defensively, but he's about the same with the bat. I think another three-year deal would be a gamble.