How Many Games Is a Buck Showalter Worth?

Buck | Keith Allison

A few weeks ago I looked at how well projections perform in comparison to the actual season ending tally of wins.  What we found was that the range was broad (about 75% of outcomes fall in a 20 game range), but that range is anchored strongly to the projection (aka the 50th percentile or push point).  In other words, a team slated to win 80 games is going to be between 70 and 90 wins three quarters of the time when the season ends.  A team slated to win 70 has a three quarter chance to find themselves between 60 and 80 wins.  In other words that connection is pretty accurate even though it severely lacks precision.  In other words, it is a fine baseline to use and indicates a good starting point when thinking about the level of talent for a team.

In that article I compiled projected and actual standings for every team since 2003.  I did not select one projection model over another as they all tend to be similarly accurate.  One thing that struck me about the projections for the Baltimore Orioles was how much this team consistently underperformed according to the preseason projections.

Year	Manager	exPct	Actual Pct	Diff	Games
2003	Mike Hargrove	.426	.438	2.0	162
2004	Lee Mazzilli	.494	.481	-2.0	162
2005	Lee Mazzilli	.481	.477	-0.5	107
	Sam Perlozzo	.481	.418	-3.5	55
2006	Sam Perlozzo	.475	.432	-7.0	162
2007	Sam Perlozzo	.463	.420	-2.9	69
	Dave Trembley	.463	.430	-3.1	93
2008	Dave Trembley	.407	.420	2.0	162
2009	Dave Trembley	.457	.395	-10	162
2010	Dave Trembley	.457	.278	-9.7	54
	Juan Samuel	.457	.333	-6.3	51
	Buck Showalter	.457	.596	8.0	57
2011	Buck Showalter	.488	.426	-10	162
2012	Buck Showalter	.426	.574	24	162
2013	Buck Showalter	.488	.525	6.0	162

In this data set, only three managers have ever outperformed the team's projected wins: Mike Hargrove (in his only season in the data set), Dave Trembley (amidst two and a half other underperforming years), and Buck Showalter.  Showalter has an interesting series of performances.  He had stellar over-performances in his short season debut in 2010 and the mesmerizing 2012 season (one of the greatest unexpected performances of the recent era).  Showalter also put in a very strong year last year.  In 2011, the team did horribly compared to expectations.  You can likely put a lot of that underperformance being associated with Brian Roberts' injuries, Brian Matusz' unraveling, and a couple black hole performances coming from Felix Pie and every pitcher making their way from Norfolk to fill out Matusz' spot.

Anyway, I figure beyond the Orioles' history, this database could be broken out to evaluate all managers as well as maybe how certain managers may affect their team's projections (something no projection attempts to do).  Below is the top 10 managers since 2003 in outperforming their team's expected wins with at least three seasons managed.

	Manager	Wins	Games	W/162
1	John Farrell	17.0	486	5.7
2	Fredi Gonzalez	35.4	1042	5.5
3	Tony LaRussa	45.0	1458	5.0
4	Don Mattingly	14.0	486	4.7
5	Ron Washington	31.0	1134	4.4
6	Mike Scioscia	47.0	1782	4.3
7	Jack McKeon	14.0	538	4.2
8	Buck Showalter	30.0	1191	4.1
9	Ozzie Guillen	35.0	1458	3.9
10	Bobby Cox	28.0	1296	3.5
	Jim Leyland	28.0	1296	3.5

This list passes the sniff test quite well.  All of these managers are highly regarded at their craft.  The leading manager, John Farrell, has long been considered a great baseball man and only recently was given a chance to manage for the Blue Jays and Red Sox.  I had highly supported the Orioles in employing him over Buck.  Though more time may be needed to evaluate him with respect to this potential metric as he has two exceptional over-performance and one poor underperformance.

All of this said, these are actually some very fascinating numbers.  On the free agent market, a win this past offseason was worth about 6 MM.  If you would solely attribute any deviation from the expected wins to be the responsibility of the manager, then those top eight managers are worth over 20 MM per year.  That is rather remarkable and probably obscures true value of other personnel in the organization.  That said, I would be hard-pressed to say that the teams involved above are paying free agent prices for those increased wins.

Below are the bottom 10:

	Manager	Wins	Games	W/162
34	Buddy Black	-7.0	1134	-1.0
35	Grady Little	-6.0	486	-2.0
36	Dusty Baker	-23.0	1620	-2.3
	Jim Tracy	-20.1	1412	-2.3
37	Eric Wedge	-27.0	1620	-2.7
38	Alan Trammell	-9.0	486	-3.0
39	Bob Geren	-20.4	711	-4.7
40	Jerry Manuel	-21.0	579	-5.9
41	John Russell	-23.0	486	-7.7
42	Manny Acta	-44.4	891	-8.1

Depending on your point of view, this list may not exactly pass the sniff test.  In order to put in three full seasons or more in the big leagues, teams have to think well of you.  The listing actually suggests that as well with 23 of 42 managers having positive W/162 values along with another nine within -1 win.  It appears few highly underperforming clubs' managers last long.  However, I'd also be hard-pressed to fully associate all of the misfortune to the manager alone.  That said, I think you would have a decent leg to stand on to say that Dusty Baker, Jim Tracy, Eric Wedge, Bob Geren, Jerry Manuel, John Russell, and Manny Acta have all managed some disappointing teams even though you do have a few playoff appearances within that group.  Just like the guys at the top of the list, it is probably a bit rash to say that these managers are completely responsible for the entirety of their team's underperformance when compared with their team's expected performance according to projection models.

In the end, I am unsure how many grains of salt to take this little exercise.  Maybe a sprinkle, maybe even a truckload.  I would suggest though to lean more in the sprinkle direction.  That said, Orioles fans should be quite content having a manager falling into the top 10 group as opposed to the bottom 10.