Buy-Low Opportunity: Gavin Floyd

The Orioles may be looking to sign a back-end starting rotation option this offseason. A few starters have already been signed, though. The Giants signed Tim Hudson for two years and $32 million. Josh Johnson signed a one-year, $8 million deal (with a 2015 option) with the Padres. And the Royals signed Jason Vargas for four years and $32 million. The O's may have been interested in all three of these pitchers, but talks were never reportedly serious (though, in the case of someone like Johnson, maybe the O's should have been more persistent. Then again, a career resurrection is probably a bit easier in Petco Park than Camden Yards). The O's certainly weren't going to hand out four years or $32 million to someone like Vargas, but the free agent market is already turning out to be very expensive.

Gavin Floyd
(Photo via Keith Allison)

The O's are unlikely to offer a pricey contract to any free agent starting pitcher. But one name the team has been linked to is Gavin Floyd, who would not be overly expensive or likely receive a multiyear deal, but does come with some injury risks. Floyd, who turns 31 in January, also has the local ties thing going for him: He was born in Annapolis and went to Mount Saint Joseph High School in Baltimore. The Orioles also looked into acquiring Floyd before, nearly dealing for him in early 2012.

Floyd started his career with the Phillies before being traded to Chicago in 2006, and he pitched in at least 168 innings from 2008 to 2012 with the White Sox. The O's are usually thin in the rotation and are always interested in decent starters who can throw a good amount of innings. That's why it was smart when the Orioles acquired Scott Feldman last year (and, to a much lesser extent, Bud Norris).

Floyd is essentially a league average starter. Take a look:

Floyd career: 7.06 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 44.7 GB%, 11.9 HR/FB, 4.48 ERA
2013 avg starter: 7.19 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 44.6 GB%, 10.8 HR/FB, 4.01 ERA

His home run rate and ERA are a little higher, but the rest of his numbers are not far off. Let's compare that to, say, Vargas, who turns 31 in February:

Vargas career: 5.87 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 37.1 GB%, 9.1 HR/FB, 4.30 ERA

So who would you rather have? It's at least close -- that is, until you factor in Floyd's injury.

Floyd underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2013 to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and torn flexor tendon in his elbow, but, according to Floyd's agent, his rehab appears to be going smoothly and he should be be on track to return around opening day in 2014. Floyd was originally expected to miss between 14 and 19 months, but his timetable appears to have changed.

If not for the injury, Floyd could have been looking to sign a contract similar to Vargas's. But the injury does present a buy-low opportunity for the Orioles or any other interested team, especially on a one-year deal. Floyd for one year and a few million (and the possibility of more in incentives) doesn't seem like such a bad idea.