Making the Orioles a 2014 Champion: 1B, Chris Davis

his post is part of the Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014 Series.  Below you will find links to the other articles.  We will do our best to make sure the links go live with each new update.
C | 1B | 2B (1, 2) | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | Bench | SP (1, 2) | RHRP | LHRP | Conclusion

Davis on Third

In my previous rumination about an Orioles' position, I considered the performance of Matt Wieters and whether the Orioles should move forward with him or look elsewhere as his salary balloons up with the arbitration process.  This post finds me writing about another player in his arbitration years who is about to have a salary explosion.  What differs between him and Matt Wieters would be expectations.  Of course, I am referring to Chris Davis.  He was half of the pieces coming back (Tommy Hunter being the other) in the Koji Uehara deal to Texas a couple years ago.  Unlike Wieters, no one in Baltimore expected Davis to be great.  Similar to Wieters, many in Baltimore question Davis' true talent level.

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2013 1B in Review or 'And then there was Davis'

In the aftermath of the 2012 season, one of the main points to argue was what the Orioles would do if they let Mark Reynolds depart.  They could have taken up his option, offered him arbitration, or tried to sign him back in free agency.  The Orioles chose none of those and instead told Chris Davis that he would be using his first baseman's mitt.  Here at the Depot, we agreed with what the Orioles chose to do.  Mark Reynolds was overrated defensively because he had jazz hands which made many a casual fan overlook how with each play extraordinarily strong magnets kept his feet in one place for a whole second before letting him sprint off to a prime vantage point to see a ground ball depart towards whoever was manning right field at the time.  His bat was also underwhelming with his value coming solely from home runs and walks, nothing else.

From both of these value perspectives, Chris Davis appeared to be the same player for at least a third of the cost.  He lacked Reynolds' jazziness, but had better range.  He could not walk like Reynolds, but had the same power and better contact potential.  The expectation was that Chris Davis would be worth between 1.5 and 2 WAR (about the same as Reynolds was expected to be worth), which nailed what Reynolds' bat was worth over the full season (1.7 fWAR--ignore baserunning and fielding).  That projection did not come close to figuring out that Davis' bat would be worth 7.9 fWAR.

How did Davis match up to other first basemen this year?

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	PA	Age	Tm	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Paul Goldschmidt	7.0	710	25	ARI	36	3	36	99	145	.302	.401	.551
2	Joey Votto	6.4	726	29	CIN	30	3	24	135	138	.305	.435	.491
3	Chris Davis	6.3	673	27	BAL	42	1	53	72	199	.286	.370	.634
4	Freddie Freeman	5.4	629	23	ATL	27	2	23	66	121	.319	.396	.501
5	Brandon Belt	4.4	571	25	SFG	39	4	17	52	125	.289	.360	.481
6	Mike Napoli	4.1	578	31	BOS	38	2	23	73	187	.259	.360	.482
7	Edwin Encarnacion	4.0	621	30	TOR	29	1	36	82	62	.272	.370	.534
8	Adrian Gonzalez	3.9	641	31	LAD	32	0	22	47	98	.293	.342	.461
9	Nick Swisher	3.8	634	32	CLE	27	2	22	77	138	.246	.341	.423
10	Eric Hosmer	3.6	680	23	KCR	34	3	17	51	100	.302	.353	.448
11	James Loney	2.7	598	29	TBR	33	0	13	44	77	.299	.348	.430
12	Anthony Rizzo	2.6	690	23	CHC	40	2	23	76	127	.233	.323	.419
13	Brandon Moss	2.2	505	29	OAK	23	3	30	50	140	.256	.337	.522
14	Allen Craig	2.2	563	28	STL	29	2	13	40	100	.315	.373	.457
15	Mark Trumbo	2.2	678	27	LAA	30	2	34	54	184	.234	.294	.453
16	Justin Morneau	2.0	635	32	TOT	36	0	17	50	110	.259	.323	.411
17	Adam Lind	1.9	521	29	TOR	26	1	23	51	103	.288	.357	.497
18	Prince Fielder	1.7	712	29	DET	36	0	25	75	117	.279	.362	.457
19	Justin Smoak	1.1	521	26	SEA	19	0	20	64	119	.238	.334	.412
20	Adam LaRoche	0.9	590	33	WSN	19	3	20	72	131	.237	.332	.403
21	Mitch Moreland	0.6	518	27	TEX	24	1	23	45	117	.232	.299	.437
22	Paul Konerko	-1.5	520	37	CHW	16	0	12	45	74	.244	.313	.355

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/4/2013.

One issue with Davis was that he performed poorly at first base, defensively.  It cost him roughly an entire win from his offensive contribution.  Another way to look at it would be that he had the best offensive season from any first baseman, but the glove pushed him down into a conversation about whether or not Davis, Joey Votto, or Paul Goldschmidt performed best this season.  That may be considered a damper, but it is always great when a team's player can be argued as the best one at that position in any given season.

Next season?

In his first year of arbitration, Chris Davis was awarded 3.3 MM for the 2013 season.  After a thoroughly impressive season, he was certainly due more for the upcoming season.  An 8 to 9 MM figure would not be surprising.  There has been some discussion about dealing Davis or signing him long term.  Those two options are not decisions that necessarily need to be made this off season due to the team having two more seasons of control remaining on Davis.  With the way the current team is constructed with so many players potentially leaving after next season (i.e., Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy, Jim Johnson, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O'Day, Matt Wieters, Bud Norris, Tommy Hunter) that it is difficult seeing it as a good idea to remove major contributors for the 2014 season.  An extension is a more plausible idea to consider.

Chris Davis' Career

Year	Age	Tm	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	22	TEX	317	23	2	17	1	2	20	88	.285	.331	.549	128
2009	23	TEX	419	15	1	21	0	0	24	150	.238	.284	.442	85
2010	24	TEX	136	9	0	1	3	0	15	40	.192	.279	.292	51
2011	25	TOT	210	12	0	5	1	0	11	63	.266	.305	.402	89
2012	26	BAL	562	20	0	33	2	3	37	169	.270	.326	.501	121
2013	27	BAL	673	42	1	53	4	1	72	199	.286	.370	.634	165

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2013.

In 2013, Davis had his second solid season in a row, so this is not exactly out of the blue even though the magnitude of his production was surprising.  With his 2009-2011 years in the wasteland, there has still be concerned that Davis' production is a mere flash in the pan.  However, this sort of reminds me of Jose Bautista.  He too was a prospect of decent expectations who had a great deal of difficulty refining himself and becoming a solid MLB player.  Below is a basic comparison.

Chris Davis			Jose Bautista
Age	wRC+	$ (MM)	Age	wRC+	$ (MM)
25	88	0.455	27	86	1.8
26	120	0.458	28	102	2.4
27	167	3.3	29	165	2.4
			30	181	8
			31	138	14
			32	134	14

After his big breakout during his age 29 season, the Blue Jays were impressed enough to sign him long term with a five year, 65 MM deal before the 2011 season.  Dave Cameron of Fangraphs originally expressed some doubt on the deal.  However, he backtracked on his doubt a few months later.  With Davis, I think he provides a more sound probability of success with respect to his bat with two solid seasons under his belt.  He has these skills and he is repeatedly using them.

Some might contend that first half Davis was not second half Davis.  I'd contend that second half Davis was a very valuable player and that sample size consideration probably need to come into play.  Perhaps it is not remember, but Bautista also had a similar distribution of performance in reverse. 

	Davis	Bautista
April	208	100
May	224	212
June	173	92
July	111	217
August	179	207
September	105	150

Moving forward, it is likely a safe assumption that Davis can be a league average 1B and/or Designated Hitter.  Paying him a market value of 8-10 MM for an average first baseman is perfectly acceptable.  He also has a potential to being an MVP caliber player worth up to 35 MM in production (for clarification, few at that level would ever be paid so much and Davis will not see that much value coming back to him...market value for that production is probably worth about 24 MM).  To me, that sounds like a pretty safe commodity for investing in long term.

Who else is available?

		Age	WAR	2013 (MM)
Jose Dariel Abreu	International	27	--	--
Corey Hart	Brewers	32	--	10
Mike Napoli	Red Sox	32	3.9	5
Paul Konerko	White Sox	38	-1.8	13.5
Casey Kotchman	Marlins	31	--	MiL
James Loney	Rays	30	2.7	2
Kendrys Morales	Mariners	30	1.2	5.25
Justin Morneau	Twins/Pirates	33	0.8	14
Mark Reynolds	Indians/Yankees	30	0.4	7
Kevin Youkilis	Yankees	35	-0.4	12

Of these options, there are serious questions on Hart, Konerko, Kotchman, Morneau, and Youkilis.  Of those five, only Kotchman is likely to accept a minor league deal.  The others (perhaps even Hart) are potential retirement candidates.  Napoli and Morales will probably have arbitration offered to them and would cost the Orioles a draft pick.  Reynolds and Loney would likely both demand starting positions in the field.  The both are not sure bets for average 1B production.  Finally, Jose Dariel Abreu is an interesting candidate who at worst is a poor man's Ryan Howard bat with no defensive position.  At best, he would be a punishing slugger who will be passable enough at 1B.  He could probably be had on a 4 or 5 year deal at 10 MM per season.  Davis is a surer bet than him.

Conclusion
The riskiest most with the biggest payoff would be for the Orioles to sign Jose Dariel Abreu to play first base and then trade Chris Davis for a few prospects or 0-3 yr immediate contributors.  The risk would be that such a move would be bet that Abreu is immediately ready and that at least one of the prospects coming back in return could shore up a place of need on the team.  If you can feel comfortable with that baseline then it would be a cost saving move of a few million per season.  The surplus value would then come in whatever extra the prospects could pull back and whether Abreu is much better than advertised.  It is an intriguing idea.  It would be a move that would encourage some to call Duquette brilliant if it worked or out-of-touch if it did not.  Regardless, the fan base would likely question the move in large similar to how they did with a lesser form of this deal back when Jeremy Guthrie was dealt for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.

All of this said, I would lean toward resigning Davis long term.  There is no such thing as a proven veteran and I do think expecting Davis to mash 50 home runs a year is fanciful.  However, I do think Davis is a 30-40 home run man for the next few seasons which should be good enough to make him at least average for this ball club.  I assume that the payroll is flexible enough that the team does not need to count pennies to the extent they would leverage a deal as mentioned in the previous paragraph.  On the other hand, if this team is going to have issues with payroll, then saving a few million on first base might be more significant is fully constructing a team.  The addition of several high profile, cost controlled prospects would also be a boon to the organization.

My conclusion though is that penciling Davis in would be best for the future of this franchise for as long as the playoff window remains open.