Is Jim Johnson an Elite Closer?

Jim Johnson Saves | photo: Keith Allison

On a later date, Stuart Wallace will address the bullpen and that means his thoughts on what exactly to do with Jim Johnson.  As you may know, Johnson cost the team 6.5 MM last year as both he and the team avoided an arbitration hearing.  Johnson has one more year of free agency left and, based on his final 2013 numbers (2.94 ERA, 50 saves), he stands to see another increase in money.  Some might suggest non-tendering him or believe that the Orioles could take him to arbitration and win the greatest amount they could reduce his salary to (4.55 MM), but I think it won't happen that way.  Instead, I think it is likely that we see him earn about 33% more than he did last year.  Typically, your second to last arbitration date results in a salary worth about 60% of the market rate and the last one being 80%.  With that in mind, we should probably expect a 2014 salary of 8.67 MM.  For comparison, Mariano Rivera took a 5 MM cut in 2013 and played for 10 MM while Joe Nathan is on tap for 9 MM next year.  An 8.67 MM salary assumes Johnson is an elite closer and pays him just a little south of that mark.

Is he worth it?

To answer that question, it probably helps to figure out to what degree relievers in general perform.  We can do this by looking at some measure of WAR or FIP or ERA or whatever.  I decided to go a little more big picture here and look at successful conversion of save and hold opportunities.  So much ink, talk radio, and internet space had been devoted this past season to Johnson blowing saves that it seems somewhat proper to look at a collection of these binary events.  In other words, perhaps there is something special about game situations where a save is on the line to the extent that maybe it is not captured with other measures.  Additionally, perhaps with a large enough sample size we are able to see through the noise and measure something that is related to actual performance ability.

Below you will find a table of relievers from 2004 to 2013.  Included are players who managed to have the most save chances as defined by having the ability to blow a save.  This definition of course will include tight games in late innings as well.  Also included is a ranking of the 32 pitchers over the past ten years who have accumulated 100 or more saves.  The list includes 124 players and a good bit of analysis follows the table, so keep on reading.

Player	Saves	Holds	Blown	S+H	Chances	%	RNK
Randy Choate	6	94	5	100	105	95.2
Jason Grilli	38	74	8	112	120	93.3
Sergio Romo	55	82	11	137	148	92.6
David Robertson	8	116	10	124	134	92.5
Javier Lopez	12	111	10	123	133	92.5
Pedro Feliciano	4	103	9	107	116	92.2
Greg Holland	67	28	9	95	104	91.3
Mariano Rivera	369	0	36	369	405	91.1	1
Joe Nathan	340	8	34	348	382	91.1	2
Sean Marshall	16	95	11	111	122	91.0
Craig Kimbrel	139	2	15	141	156	90.4	3
Grant Balfour	72	94	18	166	184	90.2
C.J. Wilson	52	46	11	98	109	89.9
Santiago Casilla	39	75	13	114	127	89.8
Joakim Soria	160	15	20	175	195	89.7	4
Eric O'Flaherty	0	103	12	103	115	89.6
Casey Janssen	65	37	12	102	114	89.5
Rafael Soriano	173	71	29	244	273	89.4	5
Sean Burnett	10	90	12	100	112	89.3
Kenley Jansen	62	37	12	99	111	89.2
Joel Peralta	11	137	18	148	166	89.2
Mike Adams	4	144	18	148	166	89.2
Arthur Rhodes	16	128	18	144	162	88.9
Brad Ziegler	32	79	14	111	125	88.8
Drew Storen	55	47	13	102	115	88.7
Trevor Hoffman	249	2	32	251	283	88.7	6
Jose Valverde	276	14	37	290	327	88.7	7
Takashi Saito	84	40	16	124	140	88.6
Aroldis Chapman	77	23	13	100	113	88.5
Brian Wilson	171	17	25	188	213	88.3	8
Joe Smith	3	117	16	120	136	88.2
Scott Downs	26	167	26	193	219	88.1
Brian Shouse	5	84	12	89	101	88.1
Jonathan Papelbon	286	7	40	293	333	88.0	9
Michael Gonzalez	56	89	20	145	165	87.9
Bob Wickman	111	5	16	116	132	87.9	10
Carlos Marmol	117	83	28	200	228	87.7	11
F. Rodriguez	302	81	54	383	437	87.6	12
Eric Gagne	80	11	13	91	104	87.5
Derrick Turnbow	65	39	15	104	119	87.4
Alan Embree	18	86	15	104	119	87.4
Mike MacDougal	44	46	13	90	103	87.4
Jason Motte	54	49	15	103	118	87.3
Matt Lindstrom	45	85	19	130	149	87.2
Jose Veras	26	83	16	109	125	87.2
Darren Oliver	5	97	15	102	117	87.2
Juan Rincon	3	85	13	88	101	87.1
Dan Wheeler	41	120	24	161	185	87.0
Scott Eyre	1	99	15	100	115	87.0
Joaquin Benoit	36	137	26	173	199	86.9
B.J. Ryan	114	25	21	139	160	86.9	13
George Sherrill	56	76	20	132	152	86.8
Billy Wagner	197	7	31	204	235	86.8	14
Damaso Marte	15	110	19	125	144	86.8
Brad Lidge	224	39	40	263	303	86.8	15
Jim Johnson	122	62	28	184	212	86.8	16
Ryan Dempster	87	5	14	92	106	86.8
Brian Fuentes	200	48	38	248	286	86.7	17
Chris Perez	132	23	24	155	179	86.6	18
Matt Thornton	23	170	30	193	223	86.5
Edward Mujica	41	68	17	109	126	86.5
Bobby Jenks	173	5	28	178	206	86.4	19
Ryan Madson	52	113	26	165	191	86.4
Akinori Otsuka	39	74	18	113	131	86.3
Todd Jones	135	28	26	163	189	86.2	20
Bob Howry	17	108	20	125	145	86.2
John Axford	106	25	21	131	152	86.2	21
Brandon Lyon	70	115	30	185	215	86.0
Luke Gregerson	16	132	24	148	172	86.0
Salomon Torres	55	68	20	123	143	86.0
Huston Street	234	18	41	252	293	86.0	22
Jeremy Affeldt	24	111	22	135	157	86.0
Justin Speier	7	85	15	92	107	86.0
Heath Bell	168	83	41	251	292	86.0	23
Jason Frasor	36	97	22	133	155	85.8
J.C. Romero	6	102	18	108	126	85.7
Trever Miller	6	84	15	90	105	85.7
Fernando Rodney	169	69	40	238	278	85.6	24
Andrew Bailey	89	12	17	101	118	85.6
John Grabow	6	95	17	101	118	85.6
Frank Francisco	73	67	24	140	164	85.4
Tom Gordon	48	97	25	145	170	85.3
David Aardsma	69	23	16	92	108	85.2
Guillermo Mota	9	94	18	103	121	85.1
Chad Cordero	127	10	24	137	161	85.1	25
Scot Shields	20	150	30	170	200	85.0
Joel Hanrahan	100	30	23	130	153	85.0	26
Kyle Farnsworth	50	108	28	158	186	84.9
J.J. Putz	189	59	44	248	292	84.9	27
Hideki Okajima	6	84	16	90	106	84.9
Todd Coffey	11	78	16	89	105	84.8
Tyler Clippard	33	110	26	143	169	84.6
Mike Timlin	25	73	18	98	116	84.5
Francisco Cordero	304	23	61	327	388	84.3	28
Matt Guerrier	6	117	23	123	146	84.2
Jesse Crain	4	124	24	128	152	84.2
Jose Mesa	72	27	19	99	118	83.9
Rafael Betancourt	73	138	41	211	252	83.7
Jon Rauch	62	97	31	159	190	83.7
Danys Baez	83	48	26	131	157	83.4
Jason Isringhausen	170	26	40	196	236	83.1	29
Shawn Camp	12	81	19	93	112	83.0
Kevin Gregg	177	18	40	195	235	83.0	30
Ryan Franklin	84	47	27	131	158	82.9
Juan Oviedo	92	29	25	121	146	82.9
Chad Qualls	51	159	44	210	254	82.7
Scott Linebrink	8	148	33	156	189	82.5
Eddie Guardado	71	33	22	104	126	82.5
LaTroy Hawkins	57	129	40	186	226	82.3
Jonathan Broxton	111	84	42	195	237	82.3	31
Joe Borowski	96	20	25	116	141	82.3
Luis Ayala	14	96	24	110	134	82.1
Matt Capps	138	36	38	174	212	82.1	32
David Weathers	61	69	29	130	159	81.8
David Hernandez	19	65	19	84	103	81.6
Armando Benitez	92	14	24	106	130	81.5
Jamie Walker	8	75	19	83	102	81.4
Brandon League	74	51	29	125	154	81.2
Bobby Parnell	36	54	21	90	111	81.1
Kerry Wood	63	39	24	102	126	81.0
Octavio Dotel	81	63	34	144	178	80.9
Matt Belisle	5	94	24	99	123	80.5
Manuel Corpas	34	60	23	94	117	80.3
Aaron Heilman	16	96	31	112	143	78.3

The list above is a familiar list.  All of them, at one time or another, were consider among the elite relievers.  They were players teams wanted at the end of games.  For those reasons, it is important to recognize that the above population is a subset of relievers.  Jim Johnson's 86.8% save rate is in the middle, but it is in the middle of all of these top flight relievers.  In other words, an average value here does not necessarily mean that a pitcher is average.  He is average amongst very good relievers, which is a valuable thing.

Below is a table showing the general percentiles and average for the entire 124 players above.

All Relievers
Percentile	%
50th	86.4
67th	87.4
Average	86.3
StDev	3.1

Johnson's 86.8% is a shade above average, but still well within the standard deviation for this population.  He does not appear to be exceptional so far based on these numbers.  You may contend that Johnson is a special case where he has risen to a new level of ability over the past two years.  In that case, you may prefer to look at his 89.4% success rate from 2012 to the present.  In that case, he is on the cusp of being an exceptional reliever and certainly is a first division closer (I consider anything above the 67th percentile to be a first division closer).

Looking more closely at the closer who accumulated at least 100 saves:

Closers	>100 Saves
Percentile	%
50th	86.8
67th	87.7
Average	86.7
StDev	2.3

For his career, Johnson is at the 50th percentile.  If you look only at the last two years, then Johnson is tied for 5th best amongst the closers (instead of 16th out of 32) and should be considered elite.

Last year, you may remember my concerns about Johnson and how it was sensible to deal him, letting O'Day and Hunter fight out the closer role.  That concern was based on him having a rather low strikeout rate and swinging strike rate.  They were rather historical exceptions for a pitcher with more than 35 saves.  This year, Johnson managed to move toward a near imposing strikeout rate just shy of 20% along with a sizable increase in swinging strike rate.  Perhaps a matter of coincidence, he also saw a near doubling of his home run rate.  The home run rate and a slight decrease in velocity are the only two red flag I see this year.  I'd say that we should expect him to continue to perform as an elite reliever with the potential for being an elite closer (something he has shown at times).

That said, 8 MM or more is a lot of payroll to take up with someone who throws about 60 innings a year and who could be replaced with only a minor impact on games (perhaps an additional blown save or two at most).  Of course, these questions will be addressed by Stuart Wallace later this month in his piece on righties in the bullpen as well as by me again in my final conclusion piece for making the 2014 Orioles into a world champion.