After the difficult night Wieters had behind the plate in the opening game of the series, it was nice to see much more favorable called borderline strike rates in the second and third games. In the 8 games played in May so far, the Orioles have fallen below 50% T-R strikes just once and borderline strikes twice. That's a much better trend than what we saw earlier in the season.
Overall, the Orioles staff may be benefiting from a general decline in strikes called balls and borderline pitches called balls. While the correlation may not be as strong as with overall batters faced or the final score, there does appear to be some correlation (not statistical, but "eyeball test") with the number of pitches thrown by the Orioles and higher borderline called strike rates. This may be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses and bullpen fatigue potentially becomes a factor.
Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-w9dFaRvtmdENTeWZnczVZUERyc25Gd1NNOE0xV3c#gid=0
May 07, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 4, Kansas City Royals - 3
Overall, the 90.68% correct call rate for the Rzone indicates a pretty cleanly called game.
However, there was a noticeable problem with pitches at the bottom of the zone. It appeared during the game that Matt Wieters was "giving up" on framing pitches at the knees. I have hypothesized in the past that Wieters knows the strikezone too well and, in effect, makes the call for the umpire by choosing to frame the pitch or not. Last night, there were multiple pitches around the knees where Wieters did not frame the pitch and a ball was called. On the other hand, Salvador Perez was presenting a steady target for his pitchers and holding the glove slightly for every borderline pitch. I can't state for sure that this was a cause, but in the end, the Royals saw 8 calls in their favor to the Orioles 3 in the Rzone and 14 to 4, respectively, in the Tzone.
This reversed the previous trend of the last two weeks that saw the Orioles earning a more consistently favorable percentage of borderline pitches called strikes.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 107 | 90.68% | 100 | 84.75% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 11 | 9.32% | 18 | 15.25% | ||
| Ball Called Ball | 78 | 66.10% | 93.98% | 67 | 56.78% | 98.53% |
| Strike Called Strike | 29 | 24.58% | 82.86% | 33 | 27.97% | 66.00% |
| Strike Called Ball | 6 | 5.08% | 17.14% | 17 | 14.41% | 34.00% |
| Ball Called Strike | 5 | 4.24% | 6.02% | 1 | 0.85% | 1.47% |
| Borderline - Balls | 17 | 14.41% | 56.67% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 13 | 11.02% | 43.33% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 34 | 61.82% | 94.44% | 26 | 47.27% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 14 | 25.45% | 73.68% | 16 | 29.09% | 55.17% |
| Strike Called Ball | 5 | 9.09% | 26.32% | 13 | 23.64% | 44.83% |
| Ball Called Strike | 2 | 3.64% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 36 | 30.25% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 10 | 66.67% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 5 | 33.33% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 3 | 2.54% | 4 | 3.39% | ||
| Calls Against | 8 | 6.78% | 14 | 11.86% | ||
| Kansas City Royals | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 44 | 69.84% | 93.62% | 41 | 65.08% | 97.62% |
| Strike Called Strike | 15 | 23.81% | 93.75% | 17 | 26.98% | 80.95% |
| Strike Called Ball | 1 | 1.59% | 6.25% | 4 | 6.35% | 19.05% |
| Ball Called Strike | 3 | 4.76% | 6.38% | 1 | 1.59% | 2.38% |
| Borderline Pitches | 36 | 26.87% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 7 | 46.67% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 8 | 53.33% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 8 | 6.78% | 14 | 11.86% | ||
| Calls Against | 3 | 2.54% | 4 | 3.39% |
May 08, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 5, Kansas City Royals - 3
This game set a new record for the highest Rzone orrect call percentage on the season at 93.38%. Well done, Bill Miller. Additionally, Matt Wieters got back on track in regards to framing pitches, earning a 75.00% called strike rate on borderline Rzone pitches and an 80.00% called strike rate on Tzone-Rzone pitches. Royals catcher Kottaras was much less successful, coming in at 42.86% for both types of close pitches.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 127 | 93.38% | 127 | 93.38% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 9 | 6.62% | 9 | 6.62% | ||
| Ball Called Ball | 94 | 69.12% | 93.07% | 87 | 63.97% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 33 | 24.26% | 94.29% | 40 | 29.41% | 81.63% |
| Strike Called Ball | 2 | 1.47% | 5.71% | 9 | 6.62% | 18.37% |
| Ball Called Strike | 7 | 5.15% | 6.93% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline - Balls | 11 | 8.09% | 42.31% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 15 | 11.03% | 57.69% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 48 | 66.67% | 92.31% | 45 | 62.50% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 19 | 26.39% | 95.00% | 23 | 31.94% | 85.19% |
| Strike Called Ball | 1 | 1.39% | 5.00% | 4 | 5.56% | 14.81% |
| Ball Called Strike | 4 | 5.56% | 7.69% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 32 | 23.36% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 3 | 25.00% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 9 | 75.00% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 5 | 3.68% | 5 | 3.68% | ||
| Calls Against | 4 | 2.94% | 4 | 2.94% | ||
| Kansas City Royals | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 46 | 71.88% | 93.88% | 42 | 65.63% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 14 | 21.88% | 93.33% | 17 | 26.56% | 77.27% |
| Strike Called Ball | 1 | 1.56% | 6.67% | 5 | 7.81% | 22.73% |
| Ball Called Strike | 3 | 4.69% | 6.12% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 28 | 27.59% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 8 | 57.14% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 6 | 42.86% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 4 | 2.94% | 4 | 2.94% | ||
| Calls Against | 5 | 3.68% | 5 | 3.68% |
May 09, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 2, Kansas City Royals - 6
One of the themes of these strikezone analyses seems to be that games with a higher percentage of 'correct' calls made for the Tzone compared to the Rzone are also games that fans (and players) aren't particularly happy with. Such was the case last night, where CB Bucknor had some eyebrow-raising calls. After the game ended with a Nolan Reimold called strikeout, Buck Showalter stood in the dugout glaring at Bucknor and shaking his head. The strikezone was higher than it typically is, but not consistently so. There were called strikes below the zone, but not consistently so.
That being said, this was also one of those games where perception and the numbers don't necessarily match up. The 88.49% correct call rate wasn't as good as some games we've seen lately, but it wasn't Mike Carlson or John Hirschbeck awful, either. The Orioles benefited from Wieters having another solid night earning borderline strike calls. Baltimore even had a higher percentage of T-R strikes, with Wieters getting 75.00% to Perez earning 55.56%.
In the end, the strikezone wasn't an overly important factor in the outcome of the game. Freddy Garcia reverted to being Freddy Garcia and served up two meatballs that were crushed. The Orioles bats were relatively quiet. If the Orioles aren't going to win every game (which would fall well outside the statistical norm), I'm okay with Jeremy Guthrie benefiting.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 123 | 88.49% | 124 | 89.21% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 16 | 11.51% | 15 | 10.79% | ||
| Ball Called Ball | 80 | 57.55% | 86.96% | 70 | 50.36% | 98.59% |
| Strike Called Strike | 43 | 30.94% | 91.49% | 54 | 38.85% | 79.41% |
| Strike Called Ball | 4 | 2.88% | 8.51% | 14 | 10.07% | 20.59% |
| Ball Called Strike | 12 | 8.63% | 13.04% | 1 | 0.72% | 1.41% |
| Borderline - Balls | 17 | 12.23% | 39.53% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 26 | 18.71% | 60.47% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 37 | 57.81% | 84.09% | 31 | 48.44% | 96.88% |
| Strike Called Strike | 18 | 28.13% | 90.00% | 24 | 37.50% | 75.00% |
| Strike Called Ball | 2 | 3.13% | 10.00% | 8 | 12.50% | 25.00% |
| Ball Called Strike | 7 | 10.94% | 15.91% | 1 | 1.56% | 3.13% |
| Borderline Pitches | 33 | 28.95% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 5 | 27.78% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 13 | 72.22% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 9 | 6.47% | 7 | 5.04% | ||
| Calls Against | 7 | 5.04% | 8 | 5.76% | ||
| Kansas City Royals | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 43 | 57.33% | 89.58% | 39 | 52.00% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 25 | 33.33% | 92.59% | 30 | 40.00% | 83.33% |
| Strike Called Ball | 2 | 2.67% | 7.41% | 6 | 8.00% | 16.67% |
| Ball Called Strike | 5 | 6.67% | 10.42% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 49 | 24.81% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 12 | 48.00% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 13 | 52.00% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 7 | 5.04% | 8 | 5.76% | ||
| Calls Against | 9 | 6.47% | 7 | 5.04% |
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