On a team full of hot starts, Orioles
outfielder Nate McLouth's sizzling April is probably the most
surprising and unexpected. Currently hitting with a slash line of
.346/.452/.513, good for a 164 wRC+ and 161 OPS+, ranking 2nd
in both of those categories on the Orioles, behind only Chris Davis,
McLouth is on pace for a career year in many offensive categories. It
wasn't so long ago that McLouth's career had stalled, derailed by
poor hitting in stops with Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Signed last year
by Baltimore to a minor league deal, he started his 2012 season with
AAA Norfolk, but worked his way to the bigs, eventually playing in 55
games for the Orioles and giving them a slash line of .268/.342/.435
with 1.2 WAR and 111 wRC+ in return.
McLouth has taken
advantage of the opportunities and offensive resurgence of last
season and has built upon those good fortunes in 2013. Not only is
McLouth showing a sweet stroke from the left side, he is also taking
advantage of getting on base and becoming more aggressive on the base
paths, as his team leading 8 stolen bases (2nd in the MLB
overall) can attest. Yet, it is what McLouth is doing with bat more
so than what he's doing with his legs that is turning heads in the AL
and providing Baltimore with a potent leadoff hitter for an offense
that touts an impressive amount of power and run driving ability in
the form of Davis, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Nick
Markakis.
So what seems to be the
secret to McLouth's big start? What is propelling him into these
uncharted offensive waters? While there are many
opinions and suggestions as to what mechanical changes are
possibly at the root of McLouth's success, it might not be a
mechanical change so much as a philosophical one that is helping
McLouth get off to his hot start.
With the help of
Fangraphs,
let's look at some PITCHf/x data on McLouth, both for his career and
thus far in 2013:
What is striking about
McLouth's 2013 start is his balanced hitting approach. Not only is he
doing a better job of not swinging at balls outside of the strike
zone (O-Swing%), he is also being more selective with what he swings
at, as his career low Swing% of 37 percent attest. While practicing a
more patient approach, he is also displaying a controlled
aggressiveness with pitches in the strike zone, as judged by his
Z-Contact% rate, a career best 93.3 percent thus far in 2013. In
general, if it's a strike, McLouth is making good contact and putting
the ball in play.
How does that make his
other hitting rates look?
As seen by this table,
McLouth's controlled but aggressive hitting approach is allowing him
to enjoy career bests in walk (16 percent) and strikeout (9.6
percent) rates in 2013. Also of note is his ridiculously good BABIP
rate – currently at a most likely unsustainable .373, nearly 100
points higher than his career average. While not shown in this table,
McLouth's line drive rate for 2013 is at 24.6 percent, a roughly 6
percent jump from his career average of 18.5 percent.
Though many of his hitting
rates are probably unsustainable, even if McLouth starts to cool off
and regresses back towards to his career slash line of
.251/.339/.424, the fact that he has become a more patient hitter and
more aggressive with pitches in the strike zone bodes well for him to
remain a productive leadoff hitter. Add to this his ability to get on
base via the walk and steal a base, along with pitchers throwing him
pitches in the strike zone at the highest rate he's seen in his
career, McLouth's overall productivity and run scoring ability should
remain regression-proof.
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