Strikezone Analysis for April 22 - 24: Blue Jays at Orioles

The Toronto at Baltimore series saw some of the more consistently called strikezones on the season, with every game rating above average for Rzone accuracy. The average Rzone accuracy rate coming into this series stood at 86.80%, but for the series, hit a robust 88.56%.

Overall, the Orioles benefited on 35 "bad" calls, while the Blue Jays benefited on 23. This was the most favorably called series the O's have seen so far this year. That being said, the Orioles are still at a net loss on the season and based upon the current trend for away games, this upcoming west coast trip may not rectify that. This is probably also attributable to a few things: 1. Jake Arrieta didn't pitch this series, 2. Chris Tillman had his best start of the season. 3. As bad as Josh Stinson was, his issue was home runs, not poor control.

April 22, 2013: Toronto 1 - Baltimore 2

Umpire	Real	% of Total	% of Chances	Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	148	87.57%		148	87.57%
Incorrect Calls	21	12.43%		21	12.43%
Balls Called Balls	106	62.72%	86.89%	92	54.44%	97.87%
Strikes Called Strikes	42	24.85%	89.36%	56	33.14%	74.67%
Strikes Called Balls	5	2.96%	10.64%	19	11.24%	25.33%
Balls Called Strikes	16	9.47%	13.11%	2	1.18%	2.13%
Borderline - Balls	19	11.24%	42.22%
Borderline - Strikes	26	15.38%	57.78%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances	Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	52	57.78%	83.87%	43	47.78%	100.00%
Strike Called Strike	25	27.78%	89.29%	35	38.89%	74.47%
Strike Called Ball	3	3.33%	10.71%	12	13.33%	25.53%
Ball Called Strike	10	11.11%	16.13%	0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline Pitches	45	31.03%
Borderline - Balls	11	42.31%
Borderline - Strikes	15	57.69%
Calls in Favor	12		7.10%	7		4.14%
Calls Against	9		5.33%	14		8.28%
Toronto Blue Jays	Real	% of Team	% of Chances	Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	54	68.35%	90.00%	49	62.03%	96.08%
Strike Called Strike	17	21.52%	89.47%	21	26.58%	75.00%
Strike Called Ball	2	2.53%	10.53%	7	8.86%	25.00%
Ball Called Strike	6	7.59%	10.00%	2	2.53%	3.92%
Borderline Pitches	44	29.41%
Borderline - Balls	8	42.11%
Borderline - Strikes	11	57.89%
Calls in Favor	9		5.33%	14		8.28%
Calls Against	12		7.10%	7		4.14%

Barrett called a fairly consistent Rzone on the evening. His overall Strike called Ball rate was 10.64%, well below the season average of 16.87%. His Ball called Strike rate, 13.11%, was slightly higher than the season average of 11.23%.

As far as the Tzone was concerned, Barrett was more accurate than average, 87.57% to 85.80%. Balls were called balls at a 97.87% rate, indicating that while he was expanding beyond the Rzone, he wasn’t being completely irrational about it. It’s just that within the Tzone, but outside of the Rzone, he was wildly inconsistent, calling 76.92% of such pitches strikes for the Orioles, but just 44.44% for the Blue Jays. On borderline pitches, his strike rate was virtually identical for both teams, at 57.69% for the O’s and 57.89% for the Jays.

In Monday night's game, a classic Tzone pattern emerged. When you look at the chart, you can see what happened clearly.

The Orioles pitchers hammered LHB and the Blue Jays pitchers hammered RHB. On a night when the O’s trotted out 5 RHB(+ 2SHB) and the Jays trotted out 3 LHB(+2 SHB), the overall count should’ve favored the Jays. But when it came down to it, the O’s really pounded that outside corner (when they missed to a LHB, they missed low or away), while the Jays had far less control (when they missed to a RHB, the ball could be anywhere). Toronto also missed more pitches inside and high to a LHB, while the O’s were more consistently (but not perfectly) low and away to a RHB.

For the fifth time this season, the Orioles had a significant borderline pitch advantage. While borderline Rzone pitches were called at even rates for both teams at just under 58%, the Orioles had a very significant advantage in the percentage of T-R strikes (pitches in the Tzone, but outside the Rzone) at 76.92% to 44.44%.

April 23, 2013: Toronto 3 - Baltimore 4

Umpire	Real	% of Total	% of Chances	Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	129	87.16%		117	79.05%
Incorrect Calls	19	12.84%		31	20.95%
Balls Called Balls	100	67.57%	93.46%	81	54.73%	100.00%
Strikes Called Strikes	29	19.59%	70.73%	36	24.32%	53.73%
Strikes Called Balls	12	8.11%	29.27%	31	20.95%	46.27%
Balls Called Strikes	7	4.73%	6.54%	0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline - Balls	30	20.27%	71.43%
Borderline - Strikes	12	8.11%	28.57%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances	Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	50	67.57%	90.91%	38	51.35%	100.00%
Strike Called Strike	17	22.97%	89.47%	22	29.73%	61.11%
Strike Called Ball	2	2.70%	10.53%	14	18.92%	38.89%
Ball Called Strike	5	6.76%	9.09%	0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline Pitches	45	32.37%
Borderline - Balls	15	68.18%
Borderline - Strikes	7	31.82%
Calls in Favor	15		10.14%	17		11.49%
Calls Against	4		2.70%	14		9.46%
Toronto Blue Jays	Real	% of Team	% of Chances	Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	50	67.57%	96.15%	43	58.11%	100.00%
Strike Called Strike	12	16.22%	54.55%	14	18.92%	45.16%
Strike Called Ball	10	13.51%	45.45%	17	22.97%	54.84%
Ball Called Strike	2	2.70%	3.85%	0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline Pitches	41	32.85%
Borderline - Balls	15	75.00%
Borderline - Strikes	5	25.00%
Calls in Favor	4		2.70%	14		9.46%
Calls Against	15		10.14%	17		11.49%

In a complete vacuum, I would feel guilty about the strikezone last night. I don’t have a frame of reference, but it really, really looks like the umpire had no idea what to do with Dickey’s knuckleball. For the Rzone, the Orioles had 9.09% (5) of balls called strikes and 10.53% (2) of strikes called balls. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, had just 3.85% (2) of balls called strikes and a whopping 45.45% (10) of strikes called balls. That 15 calls in favor (10.14% of all pitches) and 4 against (2.70%) for the Orioles was the third highest calls in favor rate, lowest calls against rate, and largest difference between call in favor and calls against (for any team) so far this season. The knuckle ball does strange things...

The Tzone was much, much more even. Neither team had a ball called a strike and the Orioles only had a slight 14 – 17 advantage (lower is better) in strikes called balls. The 79.05% Tzone correct rate was the second lowest of the year. The knuckleball does strange things...

On borderline pitches, Alfonso Marquez had the lowest called strike rate so far this season, at 28.57%. The Orioles got 31.82% strikes on borderline pitches to the Blue Jays’ 25.00%. The difference on T-R strikes was very significant, with the Orioles getting a 71.43% rate to the Blue Jays’ 22.22%. The knuckleball does strange things...

April 24, 2013: Toronto 6 - Baltimore 5

Umpire	Real	% of Total	% of Chances	Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	172	90.53%		174	91.58%
Incorrect Calls	18	9.47%		16	8.42%
Balls Called Balls	121	63.68%	90.30%	112	58.95%	98.25%
Strikes Called Strikes	51	26.84%	91.07%	62	32.63%	81.58%
Strikes Called Balls	5	2.63%	8.93%	14	7.37%	18.42%
Balls Called Strikes	13	6.84%	9.70%	2	1.05%	1.75%
Borderline - Balls	14	7.37%	40.00%
Borderline - Strikes	21	11.05%	60.00%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances	Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	52	57.14%	88.14%	45	49.45%	95.74%
Strike Called Strike	28	30.77%	87.50%	33	36.26%	75.00%
Strike Called Ball	4	4.40%	12.50%	11	12.09%	25.00%
Ball Called Strike	7	7.69%	11.86%	2	2.20%	4.26%
Borderline Pitches	38	23.17%
Borderline - Balls	5	35.71%
Borderline - Strikes	9	64.29%
Calls in Favor	8		4.21%	5		2.63%
Calls Against	10		5.26%	11		5.79%
Toronto Blue Jays	Real	% of Team	% of Chances	Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	69	69.70%	92.00%	67	67.68%	100.00%
Strike Called Strike	23	23.23%	95.83%	29	29.29%	90.63%
Strike Called Ball	1	1.01%	4.17%	3	3.03%	9.38%
Ball Called Strike	6	6.06%	8.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline Pitches	52	21.59%
Borderline - Balls	9	42.86%
Borderline - Strikes	12	57.14%
Calls in Favor	10		5.26%	11		5.79%
Calls Against	8		4.21%	5		2.63%

Overall, this was a very cleanly called game. Not only was it the second highest call accuracy rate on the season, but neither team was adversely affected by the few bad calls that did happen. The game ended rather poorly for the Orioles, but on the whole, it was their own pitching failures and not the strikezone.