Painting the Monitor: Orioles on Pace to Lose 3-5 games to Umps

This article was written with Lou Proctor.

Earlier today, we introduced this series looking into the impact of how the game is called for and against the Orioles in terms of miscalled balls and strikes.  This is the application of that post.  As time passes, I promise to make this look prettier.
Using Pitchf/x in the season to date.
As of 04.21.2013, the Orioles have completed 18 games over 6 series, having played 9 games at home and 9 games on the road. Here’s where things stand.
Real Strikezone – By the Book
Umpires are currently calling 86.80% of pitches correctly based upon the Rzone. This breaks down as follows:

• Balls called Balls: 88.53% of pitches outside the zone
• Balls called Strikes: 11.47% of pitches outside the zone
• Strikes called Strikes: 82.87% of pitches inside the zone
• Strikes called Balls: 17.13% of pitches inside the zone

This starts to provide a baseline of what to expect, although 18 games is obviously a relatively small sample size compared to an entire season. How do calls for the Orioles compare?

• Balls called Balls: 89.31% of pitches outside the zone
• Balls called Strikes: 10.69% of pitches outside the zone
• Strikes called Strikes: 80.95% of pitches inside the zone
• Strikes called Balls: 19.05% of pitches inside the zone

Right off the bat we see that the Orioles are having fewer balls called strikes and fewer strikes called balls than the average, which also means that opponents are seeing more pitches called in their favor. It’s very difficult to draw any conclusion from the lower rate of balls called strikes. This could mean that the Orioles pitchers are missing the zone by more than their opponents, Orioles catchers are worse at framing pitches than their opponents, Orioles pitchers are missing their targets by more (so borderline pitches look worse than they are), or even umpires are biased against the Orioles (very unlikely). It is somewhat more concerning that the Orioles have a higher rate of strikes called balls; one would hope that if a pitch is a strike, it’s called a strike. Let’s dive deeper.
On borderline pitches, we see:

• Orioles called Strikes: 45.76%
• Orioles called Balls: 54.24%
• Opponents called Strikes: 52.10%
• Opponents called Balls: 47.90%

This is even more concerning. Despite throwing more total called (i.e. no swing) borderline pitches, 354 to 334, the Orioles have actually had fewer total strikes called, 162 to 174, and a much lower rate of called strikes. This impacts at bats, as data clearly shows that hitters have a higher AVG, OBP, and SLG when ahead in the count than when behind.
By breaking it down into expected runs, we can see that pitch calling has been somewhat troublesome.  In case you forgot, before we set up equations to proper attribute pitch count to the miscalled pitch, we will be using the weighted average of 0.14 runs when a strike is called a ball.  A miscalled ball is worth -0.14 runs.

Date		Opp	Runs Given
2-Apr	@	TBR	0.42
3-Apr	@	TBR	0.00
4-Apr	@	TBR	0.98
5-Apr		MIN	-0.70
6-Apr		MIN	-0.42
7-Apr		MIN	-0.14
8-Apr	@	BOS	0.70
10-Apr	@	BOS	-0.14
11-Apr	@	BOS	-0.42
12-Apr	@	NYY	0.00
13-Apr	@	NYY	0.56
14-Apr	@	NYY	0.42
16-Apr		TBR	1.12
17-Apr		TBR	0.98
18-Apr		TBR	0.70
20-Apr		LAD	-0.84
20-Apr		LAD	0.14
21-Apr		LAD	-0.28
		Home	0.56
		Away	2.52
		Total	3.08

To date, there also appears to be a somewhat strong home field advantage.  The Orioles have not benefited, in general, in either scenario, but that may be due to the powers of Jose Molina.  Now, is 3.08 runs given over 18 games a large number of runs?  If this continues over a full season, then we are looking at the Orioles giving up about 30 runs.  That would put them in a three game hole to make up.  That is rough.

Typical Strikezone – In the Field
The other way we look at the strikezone is the zone as it is expected to be called.  Umpires are currently calling 85.69% of pitches correctly based upon the Tzone. This breaks down as follows:

• Balls called Balls: 97.11% of pitches outside the zone
• Balls called Strikes: 2.89% of pitches outside the zone
• Strikes called Strikes: 71.41% of pitches inside the zone
• Strikes called Balls: 28.59% of pitches inside the zone

Umpires are much more consistent in calling pitches outside of the Tzone a ball, as they should. However, pitches that are within the Tzone but outside the Rzone are somewhat of a toss-up, averaging much closer to 50/50. Here’s how the Orioles fare in the Tzone:

• Balls called Balls: 97.75% of pitches outside the zone
• Balls called Strikes: 2.25% of pitches outside the zone
• Strikes called Strikes: 68.97% of pitches inside the zone
• Strikes called Balls: 31.03% of pitches inside the zone

Here are the run expectancies for the calls with respect to the typical strikezone:

Date		Opp	Runs Given
2-Apr	@	TBR	0.28
3-Apr	@	TBR	0.7
4-Apr	@	TBR	1.26
5-Apr		MIN	-1.4
6-Apr		MIN	0.42
7-Apr		MIN	-0.42
8-Apr	@	BOS	-0.42
10-Apr	@	BOS	0.42
11-Apr	@	BOS	-0.56
12-Apr	@	NYY	0.42
13-Apr	@	NYY	0.28
14-Apr	@	NYY	0.28
16-Apr		TBR	1.54
17-Apr		TBR	1.26
18-Apr		TBR	0.84
20-Apr		LAD	-0.56
20-Apr		LAD	0.14
21-Apr		LAD	0.98
		Home	2.8
		Away	2.66
		Total	5.46

Two things strike me here.  One, there seems to be no home field advantage.  Two, that looks very bad for the Orioles.  Instead of three games in the whole that the rule book strikezone suggested, this frame of reference puts the club another two down.
In other words, the teams the Orioles face are potentially given a 50 run handicap over the course of the season.  There are some tentative explanations we could offer.  Perhaps, Matt Wieters simply does not frame well or maybe a wild pitching staff gets squeezed because the expectation is a ball.  I don’t know.  Hopefully, these numbers smooth out over the course of the season.
Games of Note
Through 18 games, here are a few interesting notes.

• Two of the three games where the umpire has called more than 90% of pitches correctly were the two games of the double-header this past weekend. Well done Marvin Hudson and Tim McLelland.
• The worst called game so far was by Dan Bellino in the first game in New York. He managed just 79.53% correct calls. His 18.18% ball called strike rate was the highest this season and his 25.64% strike called ball rate was the second highest (behind Chris Guccione’s 26.09% rate in the home opener against Minnesota).
• The umpire with the largest strikezone was Manny Gonzalez from the third game in New York. He called an astounding 83.33% of pitches in the Tzone a strike, well above the season average of 71.41%.
• The umpire who “helped” the Orioles the most was Marvin Hudson in the first game of the Dodgers double-header. He called 72.22% of borderline pitches strikes for the Orioles, compared to just 46.67% for the Dodgers. The umpire who “hurt” the Orioles the most was Mike Carlson, from the second game of the Rays series in Baltimore. He called just 25.00% of borderline pitches strikes for the Orioles, compared to 60.87% for the Rays.

Notes
Data can be found here: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3-w9dFaRvtmYU9fX083Q2FQSkU/edit?usp=sharing