What the Orioles Lost -- Joe Mahoney

On November 30, 25-year-old first baseman Joe Mahoney was claimed on waivers from the Orioles by the Miami Marlins. Mahoney spent most of 2012 with the Norfolk Tides; he got a two-game, four at-bat cup of coffee with the Orioles. According to Baseball America, Mahoney ranked as the Orioles’ #11 prospect after 2010 and as their #13 prospect after 2011. Mahoney played 132 games with Norfolk in 2012, of which I saw and scored about 40. What did the Orioles lose in Mahoney? How will his loss affect the organization?

Mahoney was the Orioles’ sixth-round draft selection in 2007, a semi-local selection out of the University of Richmond (VA). His progress through the Orioles farm system was steady but affected by nagging, minor injuries — he played 95 games in 2008; 115 games in 2009; 124 in 2010; and 88 in 2011. After two productive half-seasons (at total of 137 games) at Bowie, he was ready for Norfolk in 2012.

Mahoney is 6’6”, 240 and bats left-handed; he looks like a prototypical first baseman. But he didn’t really have a good year with the Tides; he hit .265/.319/.389. While Norfolk’s Harbor Park is an extreme pitcher’s park — probably the most extreme pitcher’s park in AAA — there’s a “short porch” down the right field line, so Harbor Park hurts left-handed power hitters less than other hitters. Mahoney’s disappointing season can’t be completely blamed on the park.

I saw two trends that contribute to Mahoney’s disappointing season. First, Mahoney simply didn’t hit very many hard ground balls. In the games I saw, he hit 54 ground balls and only 4 (7%) went through the infield and were initially fielded by an outfielder. In Mahoney's career, he has not drawn a large number of walks -- less than 8% of his plate appearances. So it's likely that he swings at too many pitches and too often makes weak contact. Second, when Mahoney did hit the ball in the air to the outfield, he didn’t pull it often enough. He hit 19 fly balls to the right fielder (41%), 15 to the center fielder, and 12 to the left fielder. While hitting the ball to all fields can be a good thing, a power hitter – especially a power hitter with a short porch to right field – needs to pull the ball more frequently to take advantage of his power. He did start to pull the ball more as the season went on.

Mahoney looked to be a pretty good defensive first baseman, but that may just be because Norfolk has recently had some really bad defensive first basemen. He has gotten mixed reviews for his defense. Mahoney looks like he has the tools to play left field, but he hasn't played there much because of his nagging leg injuries. 

Joe Mahoney would have made a nice insurance policy stashed away at Norfolk, ready to be promoted in case of injury or lack of first-base production. If he did learn to turn on pitches, he might have become a useful complementary player. But it's unlikely that the Orioles lost a future star, and he probably wouldn't have helped them much in 2013.

Final Days of the Winter Meetings Recap

So days 3 and 4 of the Winter Meetings came and went with much rumor and little bite. Baltimore agreed with LF Nate McLouth to a very reasonable 1-year $2m contract with another 500k possible in bonuses. The rule 5 draft was also held with Baltimore selecting TJ McFarland from CLE, who is a 23 year old lefty with a good sinker, a good change up and great command. That is pretty much the MO of this front office, as shown during the "cutter-gate" incident last year, that this team's philosophy is that they like guys that can get groundballs, and guys with a FB/CV/CH combo. McFarland doesn't have much of a chance to stick in the pen as currently constructed all season because 6 of those spots are taken up by: Johnson, O'Day, Strop, Hunter, Patton, and Ayala. It would be tough to keep McFarland there all season, but there is an outside shot due to the LHP, and GB%. I'm sure they will give him a good look in ST, and try to work something out with CLE to send him to AAA if he can't make the team.

On day 3 the O's also made some minor league signings:


Lew Ford - Fans already know about Lewwwwwwww.
Conor Jackson - Career .350 OBP, can play 1B and corner OF, could be a sleeper for the 25 man.
Jason Pridie - Another depth OF move like Ford, Buck likes veteran AAA help.

Daniel McCutchen - RHP - Had a couple games in the Pirates pen, replacement level production.
Adam Russell - RHP - Couple games in 4 different MLB pens, had a rough 2012 in the minors.

Allan De San Miguel - C - Organizational C spent last year at 3 levels for the O's.
Jose Gil - C - Organizational C from the Yankees system the past 7 years.
Chris Robinson - C - Backup C for AAA Norfolk last year.

Jan Novak - LHP - 18 years old, out of the MLB academy in Europe, has a decent low 90's FB and some potential with some other pitches. Very raw, but could be a good first step into Europe which the team has indicated that it would like to do.

Trade talks with a few teams were still ongoing according to Duquette who said some things may have to percolate beyond the meetings. They are still on the hunt for a middle of the order bat, but as expected the cost is high and the market is a bit frozen waiting on Grienke and Hamilton to sign and start dominoes falling.

It will probably be quiet for a few days, as it usually is after the meetings, but sometime next week you should see some pieces really start moving around the league.

Orioles Bring Back Nate McLouth On a One-Year Deal

It was pretty widely acknowledged by the team that they wanted to bring Nate McLouth back for the 2013 season, and today they've accomplished that goal; McLouth will get $2 M, with the potential for another $500 K in incentives.

We've discussed the Orioles signing McLouth quite a bit since the season ended; my opinion was that a $2-3 M contract could be an OK value (apparently the O's agreed), but that it wouldn't do much to actually improve the team for next year. And so it is.

It seems like the team is done looking for outfield help and will go with Nate McLouth and (if healthy, presumably) Nolan Reimold in left-field for 2013. A McLouth/Reimold combo is certainly capable of providing league average (or even a little above) production out there but I wouldn't necessarily consider that the most probable outcome, and so it leaves the O's (who got about 1 win from left in 2012) in a marginally better position than they were. Really, just losing Endy Chavez's -0.8 fWAR is a pretty sizable upgrade all by itself, but the opportunity was potentially there to make it a real jump.

I've had a hard time figuring out this off-season if the Orioles viewed themselves like a 93 win team (and so they were already mostly set to compete in the AL East again) or a 73 win team (and so far away that they're just look to add complementary pieces and wait for the younger guys in improve). The club could have stood to add wins in left-field, second-base, first-base, and third-base. So far it looks like they have Nate McLouth and Alexi Casilla penciled in for the first two spots (and potentially Manny Machado at third). Those are the types of guys who can certainly hold down jobs for second division teams, but unless their record in one-run games was close to 0% luck last season, they're not likely to do a huge amount to help propel the Orioles to the play-offs again.

I would have liked to have seen the O's go after Melky Cabrera on the kind of deal he ended up getting from the Blue Jays (2/$16 M), or looked at Nick Swisher if his contract demands are more in line with some rumors (more like 4 years than 7). If the Orioles started the off-season out as more of an 80-85 win team, then those types of players are ones who can add W's. Going for the cheaper value players can be a fine strategy - one I've recommended often in the past - but if they want to be competitive then that probably isn't going to be quite enough with the pieces they currently have. That doesn't mean that the Nate McLouth signing was bad - the question is just if it will be enough.

Orioles Winter Meetings Notes and Rumors: Day 2

Not a whole lot going on publicly on the Orioles front after day 2.

Some meetings took place with the agents for Joe Saunders and Nate McLouth. The team expects to have an OF signed by the end of the week. It should be noted that they also met with Nate Shierholtz's agents and that the word choice was signed, not acquired, as in trade.

Another wrinkle in the same discussion is that late last night the Orioles met with the reps for Nick Swisher, who has been thought to be seeking a fairly large contract. A curious move in that the O's are worried about keeping their payroll below $100m and have around $22m in incoming arbitration raises coming. This item shouldn't be taken too seriously just yet, since Swisher's agent is MVP Sports Group, who also represents Omar Quintanilla, who it has already been reported the team was looking into resigning. MVP also represents recently cut closer Brian Wilson formerly of SF. While the O's do have room for a player like Swisher, it may be nothing more than a coincidence during a period where media and fans are ready for a big move or signing to be made.

This morning has started simmering a little earlier than usual with continuations of talks that may have begun yesterday and reports on Twitter have the Twins contacting the O's to gauge interest on Justin Morneau who has spent the past 2 seasons coming back from a concussion and dealing with a nagging wrist injury. Morneau could be an interesting acquisition depending on the cost, as he should a couple months last season that he can still be that .850+ OPS player he was for 4 years prior to the injuries. With one year left on his deal at $14m if the Twins ate some money and the player return wasn't too rich, it could be just the kind of move Duquette likes to make. Reclamation projects with room for return seem to be Dan's specialty these days.

On the heels of the KC trade rumors, they seem to be looking at Shawn Marcum, a KC product, this morning, while the big news is that the Rangers are trying to close a deal with Grienke, which could set dominoes in motion for the rest of the free agent and trade market. 

2012 Orioles Retrospective: Wilson Betemit

When the Orioles signed Wilson Betemit to a two-year contract, it was initially a little confusing. Multiple years for a part-time player? But the price was low enough ($3.25 M total), and Betemit's adequate production in 2012 has things looking alright even if the O's decide to cut ties with him.

Though he missed a fair bit of time later in the season, Betemit started often in the first four months and still amassed his most plate appearances since 2006 (376). At the plate, he largely repeated his 2011 season, minus over 50 points of BABIP - it fell all the way to .336 (still well above average and around his .341 career mark). Betemit was able to walk (even if his 8.2% rate of drawing free passes was down a bit) and hit for some power though, which kept his batting line of .261/.322/.422 just barely above average (101 wRC+) despite him striking out in over 27% of his plate appearances.

It's been said before, but it might be a good idea for Betemit to give up on the switch-hitting entirely - and 2012 was a new low for the guy as a right-handed swinger. As a lefty, Betemit's .302/.357/.502 is more than worthy of a starting job even if his third-base defense leaves a little to be desired*. As a righty, it was a disaster; .140/.219/.186 and a wRC+ of 10. 10! Almost 30% of the pitchers who had at least 50 PA on the season finished with a wRC+ above 10. Though he might not have always been able to maximize it, Buck did get Betemit in there against righties a touch more often than had been the case for Wilson in recent years.

* Betemit was pressed into service at the position when it became clear that Mark Reynolds was not going to be able to handle it, and was more or less his usual self over there with a -5.5 UZR (-12 UZR per 150 games, compared to -14 per 150 career).

Overall, Betemit's 0.7 fWAR (0.6 rWAR) made him a fine contributor to the team and worth his $1 M (and then some). Having him as a "left-handed" bat of the bench who can fill in various positions (he also played some first and left-field) when needed for 2013 isn't bad, but counting on him to be play almost every day (when healthy) might not be for the best (especially given that 324 more PA would cause his 2013 option for $3.2 M to vest).

Orioles Winter Meeting Notes and Rumors: Day 1

So as we get into the evening hours of the first day of the Winter Meetings, the Orioles name has been tossed around in various rumors and news. Tidbits from the first day:

In an interview with MLBNetwork Duquette says that the club cut ties with Reynolds because they calculated his arbitration numbers around 12-14m and that salary number didn't work with the team's financial situation.

Duquette laughs when asked about Josh Hamilton, says that he is a great player who just about won a whole series against the O's early in the year by himself, and says that the team is definitely on the hunt for a middle of the order bat, but if Josh is that guy he wasn't sure. He says that he doesn't know if Josh works with the financial situation of the O's right now.

With Dan Connolly reporting that he has talked to sources indicating the O's have the pieces to pull off a trade for a pretty significant  power hitter now, but need to decide whether to pull the trigger or not, fans have been speculating all day. Kansas City has been rumored to be shopping some of their young hitters to get back some pitching, so people have been trying to link the O's to players such as Billy Butler. Kevin Towers has been said to be looking for a young, long term SS or top of the rotation SP for Justin Upton and Jim Duquette on XM Radio mentioned that he reportedly has two offers already, and ATL is not one of them, with TEX deep in the hunt, the second team is a mystery and some have speculated if it could be Baltimore.

Adam LaRoche has been close on a deal with WAS, with sides haggling over a third year as the reported sticking point. With their acquisition of D. Span, the Nats gained leverage in the negotiations, but teams such as BOS and TEX have been rumored to be in on LaRoche. With the meetings first big signing today, Napoli to BOS for 3/$39 it removed one the suitors, and Baltimore began coming up in speculation. With the team trying to upgrade defense, OBP and 1B production overall this winter, LaRoche would be an upgrade over last season, but the question is would the Orioles be willing to give the 3rd year that WAS has not?

Other players that have been speculated to be targets of varying interest to Baltimore are Willingham from MIN, Soriano from Chicago (which would require money from the Cubs), Morneau from MIN, and Trumbo from ANA, however it's not known if or how available these players are.

The Hot Stove is burning, so check back here and we will try to cover moves, news and rumors especially pertaining to the O's as they develop.

Arrivals and Departures (12/3/2012)

After a long hiatus, I am updating the information on the 40 man roster designations in terms of who has how many options left.

First though, I'd like to run down some basic points on options:

• When a contract is purchased, a player can be optioned to the minors three times (unless player was signed an MLB contract under the pre-2012 draft rules then he has 4 total options or if an "amateur" international free agent is signed to a MLB contract--most established amateur players like Wei-Yin Chen will negotiate for teams to not be able to use options).
• An option counts as expended if the player spends more than 20 days in the minors based on that assignment.
• Only one option can be expended each season, but a player can be sent up and down between the Majors and Minors as many times as possible in that season under that option.
• Players who have options remaining and more than 5 years of MLB experience must give consent to an option being used.
• A Rule 5 player cannot be sent to the minors (unless on injury rehabilitation) the year he was draft.  The following year, he will retain all remaining options.

If you have any further questions about this issue or other baseball related issues, feel free to email us at CamdenDepot@gmail.com.

Transactions of the last few weeks:

November 20, 2012 - Traded Robert Andino to Mariners for Trayvon Robinson
November 28, 2012 - Purchased Danny Valencia from the Red Sox
November 30, 2012 - Lost Joe Mahoney to Marlins via Waivers
November 30, 2012 - Traded Jhondaniel Medina to Pirates for Yamaico Navarro
November 30, 2012 - Non-tendered Mark Reynolds, Omar Quintanilla, and Stu Pomeranz

Current 40 Man Roster with Options:

	Options Remaining
	*	3	2	1
Pitchers
Jake Arrieta		7/6/2012	O	O
Luis Ayala		X	X	X
Mike Belfiore		O	O	O
Zach Britton		7/9/2011	6/6/2012	O
Dylan Bundy	3/11/2012	O	O	O
Wei-Yin Chen		|	|	|
Zach Clark		O	O	O
Miguel Gonzalez		O	O	O
Jason Hammel		X	X	X
Tommy Hunter		8/16/2008	4/1/2009	5/7/2012
Jim Johnson		6/3/2006	3/12/2007	5/1/2010
Steve Johnson		6/3/2012	O	O
Brian Matusz	3/14/2009	6/30/2011	7/1/2012	O
Darren O'Day		5/13/2008	O	O
Troy Patton		3/14/2009	3/15/2010	3/11/2011
Pedro Strop		3/24/2010	5/4/2011	O
Chris Tillman		3/30/2010	5/29/2011	3/31/2012
Tsuyoshi Wada		|	|	|
Catchers
Luis Exposito		3/17/2011	3/23/2012	O
Taylor Teagarden		7/21/2008	4/27/2010	3/29/2011
Matt Wieters		O	O	O
Infielders
Wilson Betemit		X	X	X
Alexi Casilla		3/23/2007	3/14/2008	5/6/2009
Chris Davis		7/6/2009	4/23/2010	3/29/2011
Ryan Flaherty		O	O	O
J.J. Hardy		X	X	X
Manny Machado		O	O	O
Yamaico Navarro		3/17/2011	5/29/2012	O
Steve Pearce		3/17/2008	3/28/2009	4/4/2010
Brian Roberts		X	X	X
Jonathan Schoop		O	O	O
Danny Valencia		3/19/2010	5/9/2012	O
Outfielders
Xavier Avery		5/29/2012	O	O
L.J. Hoes		O	O	O
Adam Jones		X	X	X
Nick Markakis		X	X	X
Nolan Reimold		3/20/2009	5/12/2010	3/28/2011
Trayvon Robinson		3/18/2010	3/14/2011	3/17/2012

Sunday Comics: All I Want For Christmas Is...

Winter Meetings time! This generally alternates between being filled with pleasant surprises and being as stressful as shopping for the extremely specific toys your kids want for the holidays.