2012 Playoffs: Who Gets In? (8/2/2012)

This is an update on the 2012 Playoff series.  There really has not been much of a difference with the second wild card still being up in the air and Detroit/Chicago shaping up as knock down drag out fight.  As a reminder, projected wins are based on the fWAR for each team.

Team	Wins	Proj. Wins	Total	*	Change
NYY	61	34	95	East	-2
TEX	60	35	95	West	-3
CHW	57	29	86	Central	+2
LAA	57	32	89	WC1	+1
OAK	56	28	84	wc2	+1
BAL	55	23	78	6 GB	+1
DET	55	29	84	wc2	-2
TBR	55	28	83	1 GB	+2
BOS	53	30	83	1 GB	-2
TOR	51	27	78	6 GB	+3
CLE	50	25	75	9 GB	-6
SEA	50	25	75	9 GB	+6
MIN	44	25	69	16 GB	0
KCR	43	26	69	16 GB	-3

Based on news reports, the Rays and Red Sox were entertaining the idea of being sellers.  Neither did.  That alleged decision may pay off well for one of those teams.

Midseason update: Top 25 Prospects, Orioles vs. Depot

Introduction
This is the fourth and final part of our midseason update on the state of the Orioles system.  Through parts 1 through 3, we looked at a revised Orioles top 25 prospect list (1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25).  We conclude the series with a comparison against the Shadow System that Camden Depot has assembled over the past five drafts.  For a recap on the Shadow System, you can click here for all of our entries tagged "Shadow System".

Summary of top 25 prospects, Orioles vs. Depot
The grades in this table are a loose tiering, with Tier 1 being potential impact talents, Tier 2 being potential everyday contributors, and Tier 3 being fringe MLB contributors. 

Point Orioles
Baltimore will, by most accounts, have two of the top 10 prospects in in minor leagues come "prospect ranking season" this winter -- Dylan Bundy (rhp, Class A-Adv. Frederick) and Manny Machado (ss, Double-A Bowie).  These two players represent the largest financial investments Baltimore has made in the draft during the Camden Depot Shadow Draft/Shadow System project.  The returns on these two investments have been solid thus far, and each look poised to potentially start adding some MLB value as early as 2013.

Conversely, we went a higher-ceiling/lower-probability talent in Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Rookie Burlington), who is currently raking in the Appy Rookie League, but remains a good three years away in all likelihood.  Our "safe" high ceiling selection of Anthony Rendon (3b, Class A-SS Auburn) started the season with Class A-Adv. Potomac but lasted just two games before being sidelined for most of 2012 with another injury.  When healthy, Rendon is a potential monster and advanced enough to quickly move up the ranks.  The question remains whether he can stay on the field long enough to realize his immense upside.  Finally, our international "big fish" Miguel Sano (3b, Class A Beloit) has shown some of the best power in the minors, but remains a number of evolutions away from being ready to tackle upper-level pitching.

In short, the Bundy/Machado vs. Starling/Rendon battle has just started, but the Orioles duo is comfortably ahead at this point.  Time will tell if the additional investment in Sano turns out to be a nice pickup for the Depot, or just the next in a growing list of international bonus babies that fail to provide a worthy return on investment.

Point Depot
Zack Wheeler (rhp, Triple-A Buffalo) was promoted last week and now sits one phone call away from breaking through into the Majors.  Our selection of Wheeler in contrast to Baltimore's selection of Matt Hobgood (rhp, Unassigned) is a clear point to the Depot's process.  Wheeler may not get a cup of coffee this year, but seems ready to compete for a spot in the Mets rotation next April.

Looking at the Tier 1 talents in each system, the Depot has a little more volume up top, which spreads some of the risk of attrition that is generally found even among top prospects.  Bundy and Machado are currently the top two talents of the eight listed, but having a little more depth probably frees up the Depot system to include a Tier 1 talent or two in trade without striking a heavy blow to the overall quality of the system. 

Finally, the Depot system appears a little deeper in Tier 2 talent.  This is not a huge deal, but it does accomplish the same things that the Tier 1 depth accomplishes, on a slightly smaller scale.  First, it is a weapon against general prospect attrition, particularly on the pitching side.  Second, it frees up pieces to potentially be included in trades, with system depth an issue sure to be discussed come this winter when the Orioles are looking to acquire talent for a 2013 run.

Already contributing
For Baltimore, Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk) has already received his first taste of big league action this summer.  He and L.J. Hoes (of, Triple-A Norfolk) should be in a position to compete for a spot on the 25-man roster in 2013.  Both can be fringe regulars, with Hoes having the better chance at growing into a true first division starter off the strength of his bat.  Outside of those two, Baltimore is looking primarily at relief arms as the next most likely to reach The Bigs -- Mike Wright (rhp, Double-A Bowie) and Mike Belfiore (lhp, Double-A Bowie) are probably closest, with Clayton Schrader (rhp, Double-A Bowie) capable of making the jump next year provided he finds a little more consistency.

On the Depot side, Brandon Crawford (ss, San Francisco Giants) is in the midst of his first full season at the MLB level, serving as essentially a glove-only shortstop.  Over 161 total Major League games, Crawford has amassed 1.7 rWAR and 1.2fWAR.  Earlier this month, Josh Rutledge (ss, Colorado Rockies) received his first call-up the Majors, and has been highly productive since arriving. Through 71 plate appearances over 17 games, Rutledge has a triple-slash line of .382/.394/.706, with 12 of his 26 hits going for extra bases.  His on-base percentage will likely be driven by average, but his bat-to-ball skills are solid enough to make it work (and he will certainly walk more than he has thus far).

Waiting in the wings for the Depot are Zack Wheeler (discussed above) and Roger Kieschnick (of, Triple-A Fresno).  Outside of those two, the Depot's talent is probably another year away from contributing at the MLB level, with the note that Rendon has the ability to break-in during the 2013 season if he stays healthy (though it's doubtful Washington would push him that hard).  Overall, Wheeler is the best soon-to-be-promoted prospect between the two lists.  Rutledge gets a small edge over Avery and Hoes as an up-the-middle talent with the bat to start and the glove to stick at a middle-infield position. Kieschnick and Crawford each slot in slightly behind the Hoes/Avery duo.

Investment delta; comparison moving forward
As noted in our earlier examination of the Shadow Drafts, and the current Shadow System Top 25, the Depot spent about $5.7 MM more in the draft over the past five seasons than did the Orioles. Additionally, the Depot signed Miguel Sano for $3.6 MM, bringing the total investment delta up to about $9.3 MM, or $1.14 MM more a year on average in the draft between 2008 and 2012, and a lump payment of $3.6 during the 2009 off-season.

With Avery, Hoes, Crawford, Rutledge, Wheeler, and Kieschnick all likely to get significant MLB time next year, and the younger draftees accumulating more of a track record in the minors, 2013 should be the first year where we can sit down and start to really compare returns on investment.

As we try to note this as often as possible, the concept of a Shadow Draft and Shadow System is not to try and determine whether our process is better or worse than the process in Baltimore.  It is simply an attempt to put into practice the ideas we put forth on this website.  Hopefully, we do okay for ourselves, and along the way are able to provide some hard evidence as to why you might put some weight into our thoughts on prospects moving forward.

In any event, we hope you enjoy following the Shadow System with us, and encourage you to share your thoughts on what we've done over the past five drafts.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot

Trade deadline recap

So, the pre-waiver trade deadline passed with little fanfare.  Rumors circulated regarding Chase Headley (3b, San Diego Padres) and Joe Blanton (rhp, Philadelphia Phillies), but come 4:01p.m. (Eastern) nothing materialized.  There were some common themes running through the Twitter account of fans yesterday -- here are some thoughts on those items:

Issue #1 As buyers Baltimore should have beat offers for Francisco Liriano (traded by Twins to White Sox), Shane Victorino (traded by Phillies to Dodgers), or Travis Snider (traded by Blue Jays to Pirates)

The important thing to keep in mind when it comes to "why didn't they beat Team X's package for Player Y?" is that all teams are not afforded the same opportunity when it comes to trade talks.  That is, when a team is looking for a particular return on Player Y, it is not uncommon for that team to find a package they like and are comfortable with, then shift to fleece mode.

The simple example would be the Phillies being content with the Dodgers deal for Victorino, then upping the request from other teams moving forward.  Any talks with Baltimore start with one of Arrieta or Matusz or Delmonico simply because the effort required to work out a package comparable to, or slightly better than, the Dodgers' offer isn't worth the time investment for the limited gain in value. 

Finally, relationships matter.  While it is unlikely that any teams are bending over backwards to "help" another org, a good relationship between front offices serves as ample lubrication for trade talks -- particularly smaller deals.  Part of the issue with Baltimore's convoluted decision-making tree in the past is that many teams are reluctant to start serious talks with Baltimore on a "sell to all" basis because, historically, it has not been likely that Baltimore will be able to give you that comfortable deal in a timely fashion, such that you can quickly shop around for the "higher priced" deals with others.

Item #2 As buyers, how does Baltimore not get a deal done for Chase Headley if they were asking for Jake Arrieta, Nicky Delmonico and Eduardo Rodriguez, as reported?! 

Let's assume this reported offer was true -- there are two ways to interpret this, with both interpretations ultimately arriving at the same point.

The first is that Baltimore was smart not to sell low on Arrieta and not to give up Delmonico and Rodriguez before they break out.  Headly is just one player solving an issue at third base and Baltimore is better off trying to find free agent help in the area than trading valuable prospects.

The counter is that Baltimore dropped the ball by not getting a clear upgrade in Headley, who would give them a middle-of-the-order bat, a solid defensive third baseman, and some cost certainty and stability over the next 2.5 years.  Arrieta has struggled to establish himself as a Major League starter and both Delmonico and Rodriguez are years away from being factors in Baltimore.

It is reasonable to have feelings for and against inaction on this front, but inaction in and of itself really isn't reducible to "right" or "wrong" in this context -- at least not yet.  In fact, Orioles fans would be best off if the reported offer were true, as it would be an excellent measuring stick for the organization's current valuation process.

Inaction in any form at the deadline is essentially "doubling down" on what you currently have -- be it for 2012 or future seasons.  In the instant case, Baltimore would be quite clearly standing behind Arrieta, Delmonico and Rodriguez, giving fans three players to watch closely. How do these players develop and how do they fit into the team's future?  Will Arrieta be re-made under the tutelage of Rick Peterson?  Will Delmonico and/or Rodriguez blossom into potential impact talents?  Will any of these players be packaged in a larger or more Baltimore-friendly move this off-season?

Assuming the reported trade package was true, Baltimore fans have a window into the decision making process in the Orioles front office.  At minimum, the progress of these three players should provide bloggers and fans with a lot to talk about over the coming 24-months or so.

And just so that we cover all bases, we should all keep in mind that "rumored" trade packages, even from the most connected of sources, tend to be incomplete. 


Item #3 Baltimore is not talented enough to stick with the pack in 2012 so it's best to play out the season and look to get better for 2013 and beyond
 
I had the start of this conversation with some readers in the comment section of yesterday's "What 'Going for it' would mean..." piece.  Generally, Jon and I have been holders of the above opinion in some form or another throughout the season.  I do think it is worth discussing the counter argument, which yesterday's piece did, albeit in a tangential manner.

Baltimore finds itself in striking distance of a wild-card spot at the beginning of August.  Much of this can be attributed to occurrences analysts would generally attribute to luck (e.g extra inning win percentage, win percentage in one-run games, etc.).  It can be argued that the team outplaying its actual talent level in 2012 has placed the Orioles in a competitive position that might not be obtainable in 2013, and accordingly Baltimore needs to strike while they have the opportunity to sneak into the playoffs.

Payroll limitations are likely to limit Baltimore's options on the free agency market.  2013's payroll will include another year of $10 MM to Brian Roberts, a raise to $15 MM for Nick Markakis, and another $4 MM to Tsuyoshi Wada. That's around $30 MM dedicated to three players who, in the aggregate, have produced about 0 Wins Above Replacement in 2012. Put another way, based upon 2012 performances, Baltimore has about one-third of their upper-limit payroll allotment for 2013 tied-up in fungible assets.

Now, that is a little disingenuous in that Markakis has been more productive as of late, and looping him in with Roberts and Wada simply serves to make the "wasted money" pile look bigger than it is.  The same, the most productive Markakis has been in the last four years was his 2010 2.6 fWAR (WAR as computed by Fangraphs.com) and 2009 2.9 rWAR (WAR as computed by Baseball-reference.com).  Even the rosiest of projections for 2013 have to reasonably keep Markakis at around a 3.5 WAR player, equal to about $15 MM of production on the free market.

Sure there is an outside shot that the 2008 breakout Markakis still exists somewhere within the right fielder, but at this point, Baltimore probably has to proceed with the expectation that they will be fortunate to get just about what they are paying for in 2013 and 2014 when it comes to Markakis -- that means they need surplus value elsewhere or they need to pay a premium to get that value on the free agency market.

Totaling the remaining amounts owed for 2013 and including raises for arbitration-eligible players, Baltimore looks to be on the hook for around $67 to 70 MM, leaving about $15 to 20 MM to spend in the free agent marketplace.  Translation?  In order to compete in 2013, Baltimore needs stark improvement of their baseline in-house talent and another multi-month run of outperforming their peripherals.

Now, maybe that simply means that Baltimore should be building to 2014, at which point they hope to have more payroll flexibility (but also more holes to fill).  That is probably the most prudent approach, and might end-up a successful approach with some shrewd roster management and some luck in Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Schoop all developing quickly into productive Major Leaguers.

A front office person, however, has to at least consider that the 2012 Orioles, regardless of how they got to this point, may very well represent the best chance the organization will have at a playoff appearance over the next three years.  That is a scary call to make, and a big reason the thirty men in charge of these calls receive the compensation they do.


Final thoughts on prospects

Feel free to stop reading here if you don't like preachy vibes.  These last few sentences are just a reminder that Machado, Bundy, Gausman and Schoop are not saviors for this organization.  They will hopefully play a part in Baltimore's eventual return to the post-season, but that's all they can play -- a part.  Further, while prospects need to be viewed on a case-by-case basis, history tells us that it is unlikely that an organization will have four top 100-ish prospects all reach their upper-tier projections, let alone all reach those projections at the same time.

The same, the likes of Parker Bridwell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nicky Delmonico, LJ Hoes, and Xavier Avery are more likely to fall somewhere on the spectrum of "up-and-down guy" to fringe regular than they are to blossom into true impact talents.  That's not to say they are without value, but hording Tier 2 talents because you don't have many to begin with is not a viable approach to amassing Major League talent, and it's not an advisable approach for strengthening the system.  As is always the case, your process will reveal itself as effective or not effective.  If things aren't working, you are either drafting/signing the wrong players or you are failing to properly develop them once in-house.

Baltimore has continued to lag behind its contemporaries in stocking their system with talent, and then developing that talent.  In order for the Orioles to be a competitive team, be it in 2013 or 2023, they need to improve in their acquisition and development of amateur talent.  I know this isn't a new message, but it is one that bears repeating.

What "Going for it" would mean...

EDIT -- One important note about 2012 in particular that I omitted from the summary below -- the first round of the playoffs after the play-in game will be 2-3 format, so the wild-card team will host the first two games of the series. That means if Baltimore were to make the playoffs and win the play-in game, they would be guaranteed two home games and the accompanying revenue. Doesn't greatly change the calculus, but an important distinction for 2012 nonetheless.

Throughout the 2012 season Jon and I have been dubious of Baltimore's chances to compete for a playoff spot this year.  On July 31st, the last pre-waiver day for trades, we remain dubious.  But, because trades are generally fun fodder for the blogosphere and message boards, and because it is an interesting exercise in any event, I decided to play Devil's advocate this morning and come up with my "all in" approach to the trade deadline.

In truth, I can see a real argument for the below moves, as I think there is something to the idea that Baltimore has played well above its head over these first 100 or so games and they should make use of the "free wins" they've grabbed thus far.  However, the moves I advocate below really only work as a package, and even then require further financial investment come the free agent signing period in November.

Finally, the two trade partners I have targeted, San Diego and Miami, have the leverage to demand fairly significant overpayment for their talent, and Baltimore prospects such as Nicky Delmonico (1b, Class A Delmarva), Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk), and Eduardo Rodriguez (rhp, Class A Delmarva) do not have the trade value that many Orioles fans wish/think they have. That is nothing to say of the fall in value we have seen from projectable righty Parker Bridwell (rhp, Class A Delmarva), whose stock as taken a significant enough tumble so as not to even be included in the two discussed moves.

So, what does "going for it" look like?

The trades...
Trade 1Baltimore Orioles receive
Chase Headley (3b, San Diego Padres)
2013 Draft Competitive Balance (1st pick following 2nd Rd)

San Diego Padres receive
Jake Arrieta (rhp, Triple-A Norfolk)
Jonathan Schoop (2b, Double-A Bowie)
Eduardo Rodriguez (rhp, Class A Delmarva)
Mike Wright (rhp, Double-A Bowie)

Trade 2
Baltimore Orioles receive
Josh Johnson (rhp, Miami Marlins)
Emilio Bonifacio (2b/of, Miami Marlins)

Miami Marlins receive
Manny Machado (ss, Double-A Bowie)
Nicky Delmonico (1b, Class A Delmarva)
Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk)
Brian Matusz (lhp, Triple-A Norfolk)
2013 Draft Competitive Balance (4th pick following Supp-1st Rd)

Why it is necessary (and okay) to overpay
Josh Johnson is signed through 2013 and Chase Headley is signed through 2014. Emilio Bonifacio is under team control through 2014.  The bottom line is that neither Miami nor San Diego have to move these pieces now, as opposed to in the off-season or not at all.

As briefly mentioned above, making an aggressive move like this is an attempt to leverage the "free wins" Baltimore has grabbed this year -- loosely, the degree to which they have outperformed their talent and peripherals.  It is important to aggressively pursue the playoffs in 2012 particularly if you believe that as of July 31, 2012 Baltimore is in a better position to make the playoffs than they might be at any point next year based on true talent level, and taking into account off-season moves.

Finally, overpayment can be tolerable if you are dealing from redundancy or from pieces that are not essential for future success. More on this below.

What it means for 2012
Rotation - Johnson, Chen, Tillman, Britton, Gonzalez
It isn't the best rotation in the American League, but it does give Baltimore the big arm up top and bumps each of the other arms down the chain where their talent level fits more comfortably.  You lose minor league arms in Rodriguez, Wright, Arrieta and Matusz, but none of those are required contributors for 2012.

Order Bonifacio (2b), Markakis (rf), Headley (3b), Jones (cf) Davis (dh), Betemit/Reynolds (1b platoon), Hardy (ss) Wieters (c), Ford (lf)
Bonifacio gives you an on-base weapon and speed at the top of the order, while also providing much needed production at second base.  Additionally, he gives you versatility as a capable outfielder and middle-infielder.

Headley is a legit number three hitter on a first tier team and interjects a good overall bat between Markakis and Jones.  Again, it isn't the best in the American League, but it does represent the potential for a big improvement with a minimal number of moves.  If you haven't yet read Jon's piece on the potential upgrade provided by inserting a legit third baseman into the order and having Reynolds/Betemit split duties at first base, you should check it out here -- great work.

What it means for 2013-14
Rotation - Johnson, Chen, Hammel, Britton, Tillman
This is a solid rotation that could be further improved through trade or free agency.  My preference would be to invest heavily on the offensive side, relying on Johnson to lead the staff in 2013 and Dylan Bundy (rhp, Class A-Adv. Frederick) to contribute in some form in 2013 with Kevin Gausman (rhp, unassigned) following in early 2014.  Bobby Bundy (rhp, Double-A Bowie) could be ready to provide some value at some point next year once he has addressed the bone spurs that appear to have slowed his development some this year.

Order - Bonifacio (2b), Markakis (rf), Headley (3b), Jones (cf), Davis (dh), Betemit (1b), Hardy (ss), Wieters (c), Hoes (lf)
Again, this is a solid collection that could potentially be upgraded to top notch with a significant financial investment.  Since we are operating under the assumption that the Orioles have maintained fan interest throughout 2012 and seen an influx in season ticket money, you go big here.

Mike Napoli (c/1b) could rotate between first base and designated hitter, while giving Showalter an option behind the plate that allows him to actually rest Wieters as he should be rested (another discussion to be had...).  The Wieters/Napoli/Betemit/Davis combo would provide plenty of pop between catcher/first base/designated hitter.

The obvious "homerun" is to take the plunge and throw a truckload of money at Josh Hamilton (cf), shifting him over to left field.  Baltimore is currently committed to under $60 million for next year.  Adding salaries for Johnson, Headley, Napoli and Hamilton could be a $50 million investment, meaning Baltimore has to be willing to spike their payroll in order to keep momentum moving forward.  This is a huge hurdle, but I think necessary if you are putting together a "go for it now" plan. The result is this lineup:

Betemit (2b), Markakis (rf), Headley (3b), Hamilton (lf), Jones (cf), Napoli (1b), Davis/Betemit (dh), Wieters (c), Hardy (ss)

Summary
This is a huge risk, both in potential future value traded and increased financial investment in payroll. All of that, and it is far from a guarantee that Baltimore will realize a playoff appearance in 2012 or 2013.

What this type of "all in" approach does is attempt to make use of a 2012 performance that has thus far been well beyond the Orioles' talent level without sacrificing the ability for the team to put together a competitive squad in 2013 and the further near term.   It should hold fan interest through end of season and attempts to build season ticket influx with a strong finish, the addition of known names such as Josh Johnson and Chase Headley, and signing of a couple more known names in Napoli and Hamilton.

I began this piece with a note that this was me playing Devil's advocate.  I continue to believe that this type of approach requires too much luck, as well as an aggressive off-season to sustain success, and further development of some stalled prospects in order to help the farm system bounce back.

The prudent course of action is probably a small move to try and hold the team together in 2012 as best as possible, while hoping for continued development from Machado and Schoop, as well as the brothers Bundy.  Gausman should be a nice addition, as well, and there is of course a chance that someone like Delmonico or Rodriguez ultimately develops into a legit above-average contributor.

2012 has been exciting in a lot of ways, as the Orioles have won more than they have lost and they continue to play meaningful games as we head into August.  At the same time, the minor league system has not had a good summer, while several AL East systems have taken steps forward.  The stark reality may be that, while this is not the right time for the Orioles to cash in prospects and push their chips into the center of the table, it may be the closest they come to a shot at a playoff spot before 2014, at which point, if everything breaks right, they will have Machado, Schoop, Gausman and the Bundys contributing.

Of course, Orioles fans are well aware of the dangers of counting on the cavalry...