23 July 2012

Comparing the Depot's Draft Slots to the Actual Ones

Awhile ago, I noted that the rule 4 draft had some issues.  As part of my analysis of the draft, I developed a chart that could be used as a trade value resource.  I assigned an 80% reduction in true value for the player.  This reduction is in large part due to risk devaluing the player (not every player will reach the average value for a selection).  Below is a comparison of what I would consider each slot is worth.



 I actually ran this assessment 300 picks deep in the draft.  For this graphic above, I only displayed the first 100 picks, which basically show the primary similarities and differences between the projected slot and the actual slot.  What we see is a rather tight relationship from about the 11th selection to the 60th selection.  Our model suggests that picks in the front end of the draft are being undervalued as are picks after the 60th selection.

Below are the actual values:

Pick Actual bWAR Predicted
1 $7,200,000 $11,739,091
2 $6,200,000 $7,747,800
3 $5,200,000 $5,986,936
4 $4,200,000 $5,047,809
5 $3,500,000 $4,402,159
6 $3,250,000 $3,991,291
7 $3,000,000 $3,580,423
8 $2,900,000 $3,286,945
9 $2,800,000 $3,052,164
10 $2,700,000 $2,934,773
11 $2,625,000 $2,699,991
12 $2,550,000 $2,582,600
13 $2,475,000 $2,465,209
14 $2,375,000 $2,347,818
15 $2,250,000 $2,230,427
16 $2,125,000 $2,171,732
17 $2,000,000 $2,089,558
18 $1,950,000 $2,019,124
19 $1,900,000 $1,948,689
20 $1,850,000 $1,889,994
21 $1,825,000 $1,843,037
22 $1,800,000 $1,784,342
23 $1,775,000 $1,737,385
24 $1,750,000 $1,690,429
25 $1,725,000 $1,655,212
26 $1,700,000 $1,619,995
27 $1,675,000 $1,584,777
28 $1,650,000 $1,549,560
29 $1,625,000 $1,514,343
30 $1,600,000 $1,479,125
31 $1,575,000 $1,408,691
32 $1,550,000 $1,408,691
33 $1,525,000 $1,408,691
34 $1,500,000 $1,408,691
35 $1,467,400 $1,408,691
36 $1,430,400 $1,291,300
37 $1,394,300 $1,291,300
38 $1,359,100 $1,291,300
39 $1,324,800 $1,291,300
40 $1,291,300 $1,291,300
41 $1,258,700 $1,173,909
42 $1,227,000 $1,173,909
43 $1,196,000 $1,173,909
44 $1,165,800 $1,173,909
45 $1,136,400 $1,173,909
46 $1,107,700 $1,173,909
47 $1,079,700 $1,173,909
48 $1,052,500 $1,173,909
49 $1,025,900 $1,173,909
50 $1,000,000 $1,173,909
51 $984,700 $1,056,518
52 $969,700 $1,056,518
53 $954,800 $1,056,518
54 $940,200 $1,056,518
55 $925,900 $1,056,518
56 $911,700 $997,823
57 $897,800 $997,823
58 $884,100 $997,823
59 $870,600 $997,823
60 $857,200 $997,823
61 $844,100 $939,127
62 $831,200 $939,127
63 $818,500 $939,127
64 $806,000 $939,127
65 $793,700 $939,127
66 $781,600 $939,127
67 $769,600 $880,432
68 $757,900 $880,432
69 $746,300 $880,432
70 $734,900 $880,432
71 $723,600 $880,432
72 $712,600 $880,432
73 $701,700 $880,432
74 $691,000 $880,432
75 $680,400 $821,736
76 $670,000 $821,736
77 $659,800 $821,736
78 $649,700 $821,736
79 $639,700 $821,736
80 $630,000 $821,736
81 $620,300 $821,736
82 $610,800 $821,736
83 $601,500 $821,736
84 $592,300 $821,736
85 $583,300 $763,041
86 $574,300 $763,041
87 $565,600 $763,041
88 $556,900 $763,041
89 $548,400 $763,041
90 $540,000 $763,041
91 $531,800 $763,041
92 $523,600 $763,041
93 $515,600 $763,041
94 $507,800 $763,041
95 $500,000 $763,041
96 $495,200 $704,345
97 $490,400 $704,345
98 $485,700 $704,345
99 $481,100 $704,345
100 $476,500 $704,345
101 $471,900 $704,345
102 $467,400 $704,345
103 $462,900 $704,345
104 $458,400 $704,345
105 $454,000 $704,345
106 $449,700 $704,345
107 $445,400 $704,345
108 $441,100 $704,345
109 $436,800 $704,345
110 $432,700 $645,650
111 $428,500 $645,650
112 $424,400 $645,650
113 $420,300 $645,650
114 $416,300 $645,650
115 $412,300 $645,650
116 $408,300 $645,650
117 $404,400 $645,650
118 $400,500 $645,650
119 $396,700 $645,650
120 $392,900 $645,650
121 $389,100 $645,650
122 $385,400 $645,650
123 $381,700 $645,650
124 $378,000 $645,650
125 $374,400 $645,650
126 $370,800 $645,650
127 $367,200 $645,650
128 $363,700 $586,955
129 $360,200 $586,955
130 $356,700 $586,955
131 $353,300 $586,955
132 $349,900 $586,955
133 $346,600 $586,955
134 $343,200 $586,955
135 $340,000 $586,955
136 $336,700 $586,955
137 $333,500 $586,955
138 $330,300 $586,955
139 $327,100 $586,955
140 $323,900 $586,955
141 $320,800 $586,955
142 $317,800 $586,955
143 $314,700 $586,955
144 $311,700 $586,955
145 $308,700 $586,955
146 $305,700 $586,955
147 $302,800 $586,955
148 $299,900 $586,955
149 $297,000 $586,955
150 $294,200 $528,259
151 $291,300 $528,259
152 $288,500 $528,259
153 $285,800 $528,259
154 $283,000 $528,259
155 $280,300 $528,259
156 $277,600 $528,259
157 $275,000 $528,259
158 $272,300 $528,259
159 $269,700 $528,259
160 $267,100 $528,259
161 $264,500 $528,259
162 $262,000 $528,259
163 $259,500 $528,259
164 $257,000 $528,259
165 $254,500 $528,259
166 $252,100 $528,259
167 $249,700 $528,259
168 $247,300 $528,259
169 $244,900 $528,259
170 $242,600 $504,781
171 $240,200 $504,781
172 $237,900 $504,781
173 $235,600 $504,781
174 $233,400 $504,781
175 $231,100 $504,781
176 $228,900 $504,781
177 $226,700 $504,781
178 $224,500 $504,781
179 $222,400 $504,781
180 $220,300 $504,781
181 $218,100 $504,781
182 $216,000 $504,781
183 $214,000 $504,781
184 $211,900 $481,303
185 $209,900 $481,303
186 $207,900 $481,303
187 $205,900 $481,303
188 $203,900 $481,303
189 $201,900 $481,303
190 $200,000 $481,303
191 $198,100 $481,303
192 $196,200 $481,303
193 $194,300 $481,303
194 $192,500 $481,303
195 $190,600 $481,303
196 $188,800 $481,303
197 $187,000 $481,303
198 $185,200 $481,303
199 $183,500 $457,825
200 $181,700 $457,825
201 $180,000 $457,825
202 $178,300 $457,825
203 $176,600 $457,825
204 $174,900 $457,825
205 $173,200 $457,825
206 $171,600 $457,825
207 $169,900 $457,825
208 $168,300 $457,825
209 $166,700 $457,825
210 $165,100 $457,825
211 $163,500 $457,825
212 $162,000 $457,825
213 $160,400 $457,825
214 $158,900 $457,825
215 $157,400 $457,825
216 $155,900 $434,346
217 $154,400 $434,346
218 $152,900 $434,346
219 $151,400 $434,346
220 $150,000 $434,346
221 $149,700 $434,346
222 $149,300 $434,346
223 $149,000 $434,346
224 $148,600 $434,346
225 $148,300 $434,346
226 $148,000 $434,346
227 $147,600 $434,346
228 $147,300 $434,346
229 $147,000 $434,346
230 $146,600 $434,346
231 $146,300 $434,346
232 $146,000 $434,346
233 $145,600 $434,346
234 $145,300 $434,346
235 $145,000 $434,346
236 $144,600 $434,346
237 $144,300 $410,868
238 $144,000 $410,868
239 $143,600 $410,868
240 $143,300 $410,868
241 $143,000 $410,868
242 $142,700 $410,868
243 $142,300 $410,868
244 $142,000 $410,868
245 $141,700 $410,868
246 $141,400 $410,868
247 $141,000 $410,868
248 $140,700 $410,868
249 $140,400 $410,868
250 $140,100 $410,868
251 $139,800 $410,868
252 $139,500 $410,868
253 $139,100 $410,868
254 $138,800 $410,868
255 $138,500 $410,868
256 $138,200 $410,868
257 $137,900 $410,868
258 $137,600 $410,868
259 $137,200 $410,868
260 $136,900 $387,390
261 $136,600 $387,390
262 $136,300 $387,390
263 $136,000 $387,390
264 $135,700 $387,390
265 $135,400 $387,390
266 $135,100 $387,390
267 $134,800 $387,390
268 $134,500 $387,390
269 $134,200 $387,390
270 $133,800 $387,390
271 $133,500 $387,390
272 $133,200 $387,390
273 $132,900 $387,390
274 $132,600 $387,390
275 $132,300 $387,390
276 $132,000 $387,390
277 $131,700 $387,390
278 $131,400 $387,390
279 $131,100 $387,390
280 $130,800 $387,390
281 $130,500 $387,390
282 $130,200 $387,390
283 $129,900 $387,390
284 $129,600 $387,390
285 $129,300 $387,390
286 $129,100 $387,390
287 $128,800 $363,912
288 $128,500 $363,912
289 $128,200 $363,912
290 $127,900 $363,912
291 $127,600 $363,912
292 $127,300 $363,912
293 $127,000 $363,912
294 $126,700 $363,912
295 $126,400 $363,912
296 $126,100 $363,912
297 $125,900 $363,912
298 $125,600 $363,912
299 $125,300 $363,912
300 $125,000 $363,912
What does it all mean?  Eh, as expected, it appears that amateur talent is prevented from realizing their actual worth by Major League Baseball.  This is essentially the reason why the draft exists, so no big surprises.

22 July 2012

2012 Playoffs: Who Gets In (July 22)

Camden Depot ran the first projections for the final rankings on July 18th.  Only a few days have passed, but that has included the Orioles peeling off several victories.

How have things changed?

American League

Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * Change
NYY  57 40 97 East -2
TEX  56 42 98 West -1
DET  51 35 86 Central +3
 LAA  51 37 88 WC 1 -2
 BAL  50 27 77 8 GB +1
 CHW  50 34 84 1 GB -4
 OAK  50 33 83 2 GB +3
 TBR  49 32 81 4 GB +1
 BOS  48 37 85 WC 2 0
 CLE  47 34 81 4 GB +2
 TOR  47 28 75 10 GB -3
 KCR  40 32 72 13 GB 0
 SEA  41 29 70 15 GB +1
 MIN  39 30 69 16 GB -1
With only a few days passing, some of the season ending tallies have changed considerably.  Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, and Toronto has seen somewhat large changes.  It will be interesting to see in the weeks ahead how much noise these projections have.  It may well be that fluctuations in the short sampling periods are evened out in the long term.  It may also be that we see periods where certain teams are outperforming or underperforming their talent level and we see regression.

National League

Team Wins Proj Wins Total * Change
WSN  54 38 92 East -1
CIN  54 37 91 Central +1
 PIT  53 33 86 3 GB +2
SFG  53 35 88 West +1
 ATL  52 38 90 WC 1 0
 LAD  51 33 84 4 GB +2
 STL  49 40 89 WC 2 +1
 NYM  47 34 81 8 GB +1
 ARI  46 39 85 3 GB +2
 MIL  44 36 80 9 GB -1
 MIA  44 32 76 13 GB -2
 PHI  41 36 77 12 GB -1
 SDP  40 28 68 20 GB +2
 CHC  38 30 68 21 GB +1
 COL  36 32 68 20 GB 0
 HOU  34 26 60 29 GB -3
There is less movement on the National League side.  It is also nice to see that according to these rankings that the Orioles are expected to win more remaining games than the Astros.  So there is that.

Just for fun...what would the draft order for next year look like?

2013 Projected Draft

Selection Team Total
1  HOU  60
2  CHC  68
3  COL  68
4  SDP  68
5  MIN  69
6  SEA  70
7  KCR  72
8  TOR  75
9 PIT Appel
10  MIA  76
11  PHI  77
12  BAL  77
13  MIL  80
14  TBR  81
15  CLE  81
16  NYM  81
17  OAK  83
18  LAD  84
19  CHW  84
20  PIT 86
21  ARI  85
22 BOS 85
23  DET 86
24  LAA  88
25 SFG  88
26  STL  89
27  ATL  90
28 CIN  91
29 NYY  97
30 WAS 92
31 TEX  98