2012 Draft Coverage: Weekly pref list, May 30, 2012

With the Rule 4 Draft scheduled for next week, we are coming down the home stretch and narrowing focus to a final five targets for the Orioles' first round pick (4th overall). Our last pref list was ten names long -- today we shorten to five, with one player set as a "back-up" pick, and four dropping out of consideration completely:

Final Pref List:
1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

Back-up consideration:
Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

No longer considering:
Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

Gausman vs. Appel:
Gausman and Appel were the two most impressive starters on the Team USA squad last summer, my top two college arms coming into the season, and finish as the top two arms in the draft class.  Both have electric stuff, both have areas to improve upon and, most importantly, both have shown some growth over the past 12 months.

Appel has seen an improvement in SO/9 between his sophomore and junior seasons in Palo Alto (a sizable jump from 7.16 to 9.44), with the ability to miss bats being the biggest question mark for the two-year Friday night ace.  While the quality of his stuff has been inconsistent throughout the spring, Appel has finished strong, flashing two plus secondaries (power slurve and change-up) and a mid-90's fastball through most of May. Additionally, Appel has held his velocity late into games and late into the season.  He has front-end stuff, with his ultimate ceiling to be determined by the ability of a developmental program to tease a little more precision and consistency out of him. 

Gausman was the best pure arm on Team USA behind Marcus Strohman (Duke Univ.), breaking the triple-digit barrier multiple times on the radar gun and showing flashes of a quality curve and slider. This spring he has focused a little more on the fastball/slider/change-up combo, reserving the curve for particular occasions requiring a change of the hitter's eye-level.  A high-ceilinged arm with mechanical inconsistencies when he arrived in Baton Rouge, Gausman has been shaped by Coach Mainieri and staff into perhaps the best Friday night starter in the country.  In my last look-in this spring, Gausman showed two future plus pitches with his slider and change-up, and a future plus-plus fastball that hit 97 mph in his last inning of work.  As one AL cross-checker stated upon Gausman's exit from the game, "You win championships with arms like that." 

Like Appel, Gausman profiles as a front-end arm, but there is a little more athleticism in the LSU righty and a little more room for growth. Gausman tends to produce a greater number of groundballs than does Appel, in no small part because of a tougher pitch plane and greater ability to create angles with his pitches. These two are highly talented arms, but both the scouting and the advanced statistical breakdowns favor Gausman as the slightly better investment.  Gausman finishes the year as the top arm in the draft and the top prospect on our preference list.

The prep position players:
Earlier this month I broke down Almora and Buxton in detail, with Almora's combination of ceiling and probability beating out Buxton's sky-high potential.  The third prep position player we would have in the mix for Baltimore is Puerto Rican infielder Carlos Correa (who ranked third overall on our most recent pref list, behind Gausman and Almora).
Correa entered the year as an easy top 15 talent for me, with much of his value built off of strong showings in October and January in the tournament and showcase format, respectively. Already a sturdy 6-foot-3, 185-pounds, Correa has a broad frame that projects to another 20-pounds or so (perhaps a bit more). Couple the body with what is currently average range and quickness in his lower-half and you get a high likelihood that Correa will find his way over to the hot corner during his journey through the minors.  His hands and arm, however, should make him an easy plus defender at third and it is absolutely possible that the arm strength and fluid actions allow him to stick at short in spite of what is likely to be fringy range.  His defensive profile could resemble that of Troy Tulowitzki when all is said in done, though he lacks the first step quickness that allows Tulo to play an above-average short at the Major League level.

Offensively, Correa has a nice blend of projected power and hit tool, which is wholly a product of his first rate bat speed and hand-eye coordination.  He has knack for loud contact and has showcased the potential for plus in-game power down the road (he already flashes that raw pop during batting practice).  Assuming the move from shortstop, the best case scenario is a top-tier defensive third baseman with a chance to post triple-slashes of .315/.380/.550 -- easily one of the highest-ceilings in the entire draft class.

While Correa comes with a little more certainty than Buxton, he isn't as tested as is Almora and the difference in defensive value between third base and center field is not insignificant. Ultimately, the decision as to how to comparatively rank Almora, Buxton and Correa comes down to how you value probability versus ceiling. For me, Almora's blend of projection and probability gives him a slight edge over the other two highly talented prepsters and lands him second on the Camden Depot pref list. The Orioles would be fortunate to introduce any of the three to their system.  It's a nice situation this year wherein little separates the top five talents in the draft, as Baltimore is guaranteed a choice between at least two of them.

A not-quite-ace in the hole:
Though the numbers indicate that Baltimore will have a guaranteed shot at one of the top five talents in the draft, it's important to have a fallback in case of the unexpected.  San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer is a small step behind the two college arms listed above and can serve as that back-up if cost enters the picture.

This could come about under two scenarios. The first is a case where the two remaining top 5 talents indicate signing bonus demands well ahead of Baltimore's valuation.  While the O's are allotted $4.2 million to spend on this pick, the profiles of the available players would generally come in to the $2.75 to 3.25 million range, which would leave some extra money for Baltimore to spread out across the rest of their picks.  If advisors push this tactic -- treating the allotments as new "recommendations" for bonus amount -- it could make sense to revert to a fallback.

Likewise, even if the top 5 talents float reasonable signing bonus requests, it could make sense to sign a the fallback option provided the drop in value on the pref list is less than value of the money saved. That is, if the aggregate of your first and second round selections is better with a slightly lower value pick in the first and a much higher value pick in the second (say $2.5 spent in the first and second as compared to $3.5 spent in the first and $1.5 spent in the second), it's a scenario worth exploring.

The only name that fits the bill this year would by Zimmer.  He has similar upside to Appel and Gausman, but lacks their refinement. He has also seen fluctuations in his velocity and the quality of his stuff from game-to-game and at times from inning to inning. He is highly athletic and has a skill set that profiles well for a good developmental group.  The same, he hasn't been tested over the course of a long season and it is unclear where his stuff will ultimately sit once he's throwing every five days over the course of a six month season.

See for yourself:
For today's draft video, here's a look at our remaining pref list, one video a piece. Later this week we will link to my full detailed reports, which will be publishing at DiamondScapeScouting.com (and will include multiple videos for most of these players):

Gausman


Almora


Correa


Appel


Buxton

Does Roy Oswalt fit on the Orioles?

There has been considerable discussion over the past week about where Roy Oswalt will wind up. Jon Heyman wrote the following:

One executive of an interested team said he believes Oswalt will probably top the $2.5 million the late-starting Andy Pettitte is guaranteed by the Yankees but seems skeptical about whether Oswalt will meet his asking price or guarantee himself $5 million. Oswalt is now said to be more open geographically, and the substantial asking price has some surmising he plans to go to the high bidder.

Oswalt is also said to want to play for a team with a chance to win, so assuming the Dodgers don't get back in the derby, the Rangers would appear to be the safest bet to make the playoffs of the known interested teams, though the Red Sox, Phillies and Orioles all have a chance to make the playoffs.

Last year, Oswalt suffered a back injury and missed part of June and all of July.  Conventional concerns were that a back injury can be a chronic this and that he was no longer dealing as an elite pitcher.  The first concerns is a legitimate one.  Back injuries typically get worse, not better.  However, this would likely be a one year deal and Oswalt likely would not be ready to pitch in the Majors until he gets his work in the minors.  This likely puts July as the target date.  A fully healthy Oswalt should be able to log about 16 games, half a season's load.  How much is that worth?

The second concern is whether Oswalt is a different pitcher than he used to be.  Here are his numbers from last year by month:

April: 5 GS, 27 IP, 7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.32 FIP
May: 3 GS, 18 IP, 4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 2.97 FIP
June: 5 GS, 26.1 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 5.04 FIP
July: Disabled List
August: 5 GS, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 2.58 FIP
September: 6 GS, 41 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.27 FIP

There really does not appear to be much difference between his pre-injury (April) and post-injury (August and September) starts.  His performance also does not look much difference than what he accomplished from 2005 to 2009 (6.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.50 FIP, 22.8 fWAR, 23.5 rWAR).  Towards the end of the season, his fastball was chugging around 92.8 mph which is perfectly within range of what he has done in the past five years.  Simply put, Oswalt should be viewed as he has been for the last few years with the caveat that there are some medicals out there that might be somewhat concerning.

With a line of 90 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.50 FIP, that is worth in the neighborhood of 1.7 to 2.1 WAR.  This year the cost per win is about 4.5 MM in the general market.  With a 20% injury reduction application, you wind up with a value of 6.1 to 7.6 MM.  If you believe that the Orioles are indeed a playoffs squad, then you are going to see higher attendance at the end of the season which may make the cost per win closer to 5.5 MM.  In the scenario, Oswalt's value might be closer to 7.5 to 9.2 MM.  Last winter, Oswalt declined an alleged offer from the Tigers for 10-12 MM.  At the moment, it appears that teams are balking over handing him 7.5 MM.  It may well be that my estimation of his current ability is too rosy and that his medical file leaves one wanting from one with fewer entries.  I do not know.

If I was Dan Duquette, I would pull the trigger and jump if Oswalt is asking for 5 MM.  That is a rich one year deal, but it certainly gives you a solid pitcher for this season and, with a 12 MM offer, gives you a solid one for next year or a compensatory pick.  Oswalt would push Tommy Hunter to the pen or Norfolk.  This would likely result in the team gaining an extra win or two in the standings with Oswalt tossing the ball every fifth day instead of Hunter.  Who knows...maybe passing through Frederick in June, Oswalt could show Dylan Bundy a thing or two about change ups.

Remember, for 5 MM or more the Orioles have gone after Garrett Atkins, Vladimir Guerrero, the second coming of Miguel Tejada, etc.  I actually can see Oswalt as part of a plan and not just haphazard, high-cost shrugging.

Adam Jones' extension and the Orioles competing in 2012 and 2013

In the wake of the Adam Jones signing, I think back to the column I wrote back in January.  In that column, I came up with the following values for his 2012-2014 seasons based on players with similar numbers:

85th: 308/369/520; 18 WAR; ~80MM
50th: 278/334/451; 11 WAR; ~50MM
15th: 248/300/382; 4.5 WAR; ~21MM

Those values were assuming market value, so really only the final season would really fall under market value.  This season Jones is making 6.15MM.  Next year he will make 10.5MM when you include his signing bonus and then 13MM for a total of almost 30MM over these next three seasons.  By signing Jones, the club has probably saved somewhere between 2-5MM in 2014.  I did not run my analysis beyond those 2015 to 2018 dates to determine the value there.  I have him worth about 50MM over 2015 to 2018 based on my own approximation with 2017 and 2018 with him in left field.

To line them up, the Orioles are paying 85.5MM over 2013 to 2018.  I have Jones' mid-range projection over that period being worth 80MM.  If Jones hits the 85th percentile from that January column, then you are looking at a worth of about 134MM.  Simply put, I think the Orioles are probably going to get even value for Jones, maybe a little more depending on how free agency money shifts with the introduction of new TV money flooding several markets.

On a side note, it is nice to see how these projections come close to what the Orioles wind up doing.  Back in 2008, I came up with Nick Markakis earning an extension of 6 years at 66.01MM.  He wound up with a 6 year deal at 66.1MM.  That one has not worked out so well.  The Orioles from 2009 to 2011 got out of Markakis' arbitration years by paying him 21.05MM while his arbitration adjusted cost came to 18.72MM.  There is a decent chance he provides at cost return, but also a good shot at a subpar performance level.

This leads me to think about the team in general, the rest of this season, and next year.  With a payroll remarkably below what the Red Sox and Yankees have, the Orioles need to either get great value when they commit to a player or have solid 0-3 year player production.  A market value team need a total WAR of about 42 wins above replacement to be competitive and to get that solely at market value would cost roughly 210MM.  With that in mind the Orioles need to find some good cheap players or find an undervalue piece in the market.

The three weakest areas of the team are left field, first base, third base, and starting pitching (who doesn't have a weakness at starting pitching).  What I mean by weakest is that these are the areas where the greatest improvement could be found. 

Left fielders have been producing offensively at a level about 15% below league average.  Much of that can be put at the feet of Endy Chavez who was supposed to compensate that with plus defense.  Instead, the Orioles have delivered with league average defense according to UZR (blah blah blah small sample size, but I think having looked out there that defense has not been a strong suit in left field no matter who has played there).  Currently, Xavier Avery is picking up with promise of being a useful left fielder, but he looks more like a 4th outfielder to me still.  He is still learning how to play and if he figures it out he could be an above average starter.  His approach at the plate looks defensive and he tends to wander around in the field.  Nolan Reimold is another player who has shown promise, but it is difficult to truly rely on him.  He flashes above average potential, but gets into severe injury ridden ruts.  He is 28 and has never had a season where he was not dealing with a nagging injury and only two seasons where he managed to play almost a full season (2008 and 2009).

The players I immediately think of as short term guys for left field who could greatly improve the team would be the following:

Free Agents at the End of This Year
Melky Cabrera, Giants - The Giants are sitting second in the NL West so it will be a while before they consider breaking down the team.  However, Cabrera is a player to keep your eye on.  He is capable of playing left and right field as well as fill in for center.  Cabrera might be a concern as he let himself get out of shape before getting serious with conditioning, but he could be a solid target and make for a good player to extend for four years or so.  He probably adds about one to two wins on top of the team's in house options.
Nick Swisher, Yankees - Swisher is not going anywhere within the season, but he may be an option once the season concludes.  He has struggled so far this year, but has been relatively consistent.  He plays an average left and right field as well as can man first base.  His ability to take a walk may make him an early target of Duquette's.
Andre Either, Dodgers - Either has had some disagreements with the Dodger front brass, but he too will certainly not be dealt as the Dodgers are enjoying great success.  He is more of a stander than a fielder, but his bat could prove to be quite useful for the Orioles in left or as a DH in 2013.
Free Agents at the End of Next Year
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox - It will be difficult to see how the BoSox will let him walk.  It is also hard to see exactly how he and Adam Jones would figure out who stays in center field.  It looks unlikely that a fit could be made here if there is an opportunity to be had.
Hunter Pence, Phillies - Hunter Pence is a solid hitter with below average defense.  He will not be dealt and he is the type of player whose future is shaky if he cannot remain out in the field.  I think he will be given big money by someone...maybe the Phillies.

As it stands, it seems that the best direction for this team is to run the season out with Avery and Reimold.  In the off season, the team could look toward a player like Melky Cabrera who is versatile and has shown a solid bat over the past year and a quarter.

At first base, Chris Davis is making an interesting case for himself as a long term solution.  He is not the excellent defensive first baseman that seemed to be shoved in force during the off season.  He is an extremely streaky hitter who is enjoy his best stint since his rookie year.  He could serve the team as an average solution there.  I do not see him as a 300/335/500, but I could see him sustaining a 270/310/480 line.  That would be decent enough for him to be an everyday role player.  In a worst case scenario, you could keep most of his at bats against righties.  Davis as a long term solution is probably a good thing as the alternatives outside of the organization are limited.  I simply do not see a useful, star target available this or next year.

Andy MacPhail thought he solved the third base situation by trading David Hernandez and Kam Mikolio for Mark Reynolds.  It would be nice to have David Hernandez in the pen right now.  Reynolds work on his fielding did not pay any dividends, Wilson Betemit's fielding is what we thought it was going to be, and the random mix of players has resulted in the 5th worst defense at third if you think UZR is accurate at this point in the season.  Regardless, the defense has not been good and you really do not need a metric to tell you this.  There has been some talk of shifting Robert Andino to third and try Roberts out at second.  In the next few years with Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop making noise...there may be less need to force the issue here.

However, there is an option or two outside of the organization:

David Wright, Mets - Wright is having a little rebirth of a year and is crushing the ball.  His defense still looks shaky and has looked shaky for three years straight now.  With the Mets in a talent acquisition mode, it is plausible that they could jettison the 17MM for 2013 Wright in exchange for prospects.  The Orioles are light on prospects, but might be able to put something together.  I would think the Mets would be interested in a combination of players like Jonathan Schoop, Nicky Delmonico, Parker Bridwell, and L.J. Hoes.  That cuts the minors deep, but if you think Wright is a solution at third for the next three to four years then you have to go for it and secure an extension for Wright.  He would probably add a couple wins for this season and be somewhere around a 3-5 WAR player for the team.  That written, I have not heard him as being on the market.
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox - With Will Middlebrooks making noise and the Sox potentially in need of more roster flexibility, Youkilis might be a target in the off season.  His bat has looked poor this season, he is not the defender he use to be, and he has injury issues.

If you believe in this team then I think you have to check in with the Mets and see what they are asking or if Wright is even on the block.  I think the Orioles have to hold on to Machado and Dylan Bundy, but no other player should be nailed down.  With the doubt surrounding Youkilis, I'd like to see him as a free agent or someone I would not have to give anything of significance.

As for starting pitchers, any time you can knock the fifth starter out of the rotation with an ace, it will be worth a 4-5 win shift.  That would send Brian Matusz or Tommy Hunter to the pen or Norfolk.  Here are how the options run:
Free Agents at the End of This Year

Zach Grienke, Brewers - Grienke will probably be dealt if the Brewers cannot bounce back into being an elite team.  He will likely require a package similar to what I described above for Wright.  It also seems likely that there will be more interest in Grienke with teams offering higher upside prospects than the Orioles can offer, assuming Bundy and Machado are off limits.  Any deal would be accompanied with the expectation that the team will need to offer a 20+/yr extension.
Cole Hamels, Phillies - The Phillies will likely ride their squad to the end of the season, making Hamels an off season target.  There is some question as to whether the Phillies can afford another big money contract.  There will likely be a great deal of competition for his services this off season.  I could see a 5 year, 120MM deal for him.  It will be difficult for the Orioles to fit him in their payroll.
Edwin Jackson, Nationals - Jackson is a pitcher whose stuff suggests he should be better than his result, but his results really are rather solid.  The Orioles will not be able to get him mid-season, but could target him as a player that would cost 60% what Grienke or Hamels will cost while providing 75% of the performance.
Colby Lewis, Rangers - Lewis also would not be available mid-season, but also represents a player who likely will provide above average performance at a reduced rate in comparison to elite arms.
Roy Oswalt, Free Agent - Oswalt went down last year with a back injury in June as a 3.00 ERA pitcher.  He came back for the final two months as more of 4.50 ERA pitcher.  This explains the tepid response to his free agency this past off season.  There is a good chance he would be more useful than Hunter or Matusz, but no one should expect him to be an elite arm anymore.

Oswalt or bust is the likely way things will go during the season for the Orioles.  The off season may prove more interesting.

So what does it all mean?
If you think the Orioles are for real, then this season matters a great deal.  You can target guys like Melky Cabrera and one of David Wright or Zach Grienke with an eye toward extending them as part of the team's core.  If Wright is a target, then you go hard after Oswalt as well.  If you have doubt in this squad, then waiting for the off season to upgrade will be ideal, but Oswalt should still be in play if the money is there to burn.  It certainly is excellent to be able to ask this question.  My perspective is that if you can acquire Wright for pieces that are not apparently tied to our future success, then you make that move and expand payroll some more.  I also think a move this off season for Melky Cabrera would better solidify this outfield.  Finally, an off season push for a solid number two or three in Jackson or Lewis would be something that would be financially feasible and work toward the team's success.

So, what do you think?