Scouting obligations have kept me out of pocket on the Camden Depot coverage, but we return to our pref list this week with an updated list and brief comparison of the two high school outfielders on the list: Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Baxley, Ga.) and Albert Almora (Mater Academy, Hialeah Gardens, Fla.):
Tale of the tape:
Albert Almora measures in at 6-foot-2, 175-pounds, showing average speed in the field that plays up on the bases due to his aggressive approach to the game and advanced feel. Buxton is a true burner, among the fastest 1st Round players the draft has seen in the last few years -- on par with Derek "Bubba" Starling, the fifth overall pick last year (Kansas City Royals). Physically, he stands 6-foot-1, 175-pounds with a broad frame that will hold additional thickness as he matures. Almora will be 18-years, 2-months old in June, while Buxton will be 18-years, 6-months.
In the field:
Buxton has the sexier tool set, with true "80" speed (top of the charts on the scouting scale) and a plus-plus arm that some evaluators have likewise rated as an "80". His approach and feel are still generally raw, the effect of which can be spun two ways. If you are an optimist, you see this as a player with the speed to outrun mistakes in routes and first steps, with a chance to improve his execution with pro instruction. If you are a little more conservative, you wonder if the missteps off the bat and the sometimes deviated routes will negate the foot speed that should allow him to cover gap-to-gap without effort. Overall, he is a starter kit for an elite defensive center fielder, but inconsistent time on the diamond makes it difficult to determine how easy it will be to assemble the kit.
Almora, on the other hand, has a feel for the outfield that you seldom see outside of the pro ranks. His jumps off the bat are among the best I've ever seen in a prep player, and his routes and ability to close and finish belie his average foot speed. He covers a wide swath in center, with his feel for the craft potentially allowing him to provide plus defense up-the-middle. He has the arm strength and accuracy for center field, as well. While Almora lacks the elite defensive upside of Buxton, he comes with much more probability, and can still be among the better defensive players in the game.
At bat:
Almora might be the best pure hitter at the prep ranks, and profiles as a potential .310/.400/.500 bat, with his slugging a solid mix of doubles and homeruns. While his "now" power is somewhat limited in-game, his bat speed, ability to square, swing plane, loft, and pre-game showings indicate he could easily grow into 55/60 power when all is said and done. His understanding of the strikezone is advanced, and his quick hands afford him the opportunity to delay the start of his swing long enough to get him an extra few feet to identify pitches.
As is the case with his defense, the upside in Buxton's bat is incredible. If everything clicks, he profiles as a monster three-spot hitter with slash potential of .290/.360/.550 bat (and that might be light on the hit tool). Also as is the case with his defense, Buxton is a ways off from realizing this potential. He gets long with his swing path and couples that with an extended stride that can throw off the rotational flow of his core, sapping pop. While he has received dings in the media due to the lack of homeruns this spring, there is no lack of raw power here. What we are likely seeing is a slightly out-of-whack swing leading to inconsistent hard contact, which should be addressed as he receives pro instruction and shortens his stride and swing.
Bottom line:
Do you like probability or upside? Buxton has all of the physical tools you look for in a baseball player, and a true five-tool player that can be plus or better across the board simply doesn't come along very often. At the same time, Almora provides a refinement and feel that you seldom find in a prep player. Both are legit top-5 overall talents, and your personal preference between the two likely depends on your philosophy towards investment in and development of teenage prospects.
On to the updated 1:4 pref list. As a reminder, this is not necessarily the list of the top 10 players in the draft, but rather a list of players that, for various reasons, we have identified as targets for Baltimore at 1:4, were we doing the drafting:
Current Preference List (May 9, 2012)
1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
6. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
7. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
8. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
9. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
10. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
For today's draft video, here's a look at our new #1 on the pref list, LSU ace Kevin Gausman -- video shot on my Louisiana scouting trip this spring:
07 May 2012
Buying or Selling?: Matt Wieters
Still in shock after watching the Orioles take five of six from the Yankees and Sox, I figure it's time to start digging into the particulars of the 2012 season. It's still about four weeks too early, in my mind, to get too attached to a narrative, but let's be honest -- O's fans haven't had excitement like this in a long time and there is no shame in basking in the wins a little prematurely.
Over the next two weeks we hope to tick through some of the key components to Baltimore's hot start (certain players and stats) in order to make a determination as to whether these are trends are likely to continue. We start with the player Camden Depot highlighted as the contributor fans should be most excited about entering 2012: Matt Wieters.
Who: Matt Wieters
What: fWAR and rWAR both on pace for approximately 9.25
Buying or selling: Buying
Discussion: Let's clear-up right away that it is highly unlikely Wieters hits the 9.25 WAR mark this season (only nine position players in all of baseball topped the 7.0 rWAR mark in 2011, none topping 8.4). So "buying" isn't buying the 9.25 pace, but Wieters can absolutely be one of the ten most valuable position players in baseball this year. For comparison's sake, in 2011 Wieters was worth 4.6 wins above replacement according to Baseball-Reference.com (rWAR) and 5.0 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs.com (fWAR). For purposes of this discussion, we will focus on rWAR, as that presents us with the largest discrepancy between current pace and last year's performance.
Defensively, Wieters continues to shine. He displays soft hands, quick feet side-to-side, and works well to gameplan, calling an effective game much more often than not. His catch-and-throw skill set remains among the best in game, showing easy plus-plus arm strength with accuracy. With 37% of would-be basestealers caught in 2011, Wieters was second to only Diamondback's backstop Miguel Montero (40%) among catchers logging more than 82 games. Thus far in 2012, Wieters continues to mow down runners, currently at a 44% clip. Additionally, he fields his position well, particular receiving throws from the outfield, handling your typical 'tweener hops with ease while blocking the plate.
The big jump in value this year has been at the plate. From a scouting perspective, the biggest change has been Wieters patience. His approach was advanced, even as a prospect, but has really shone through over the Birds' first 28 games. Wieters has better tapped into a selectively aggressive approach at plate, laying-off more borderline pitches, and charging into the ball with more violence during hitter's counts. While the statistical sample size is too small to provide us adequate ammo for a decisive report, a cursory glance generally matches-up my scouting observations.
According to pitch f/x, as compared to 2011, Wieters has generally maintained his contact rate on pitches in zone (85.4% against 87.9%) and out of the zone (81.6% against 82.2%), and has maintained his swing rate on pitches in the zone (66.9% against 65.3%). Where pitch f/x shows the greatest change is on swing rate on pitches out the zone, where Wieters has cut down to 22.2% from 32.3%. Again, the sample size is small, just 28 games into the season, but this matches with my scouting observations.
On batted balls his LD%, FB%, GB% and IFH% are all within 1% of his 2011 rates, and his GB/FB rate in 2012 is 1.10 versus 1.12 in 2011. His BABIP has climbed to .309 from .276 in 2011, which on the surface might indicate that Wieters has been a little lucky. Keeping in mind the backdrop that batters can more directly impact their own BABIP than can pitchers, and noting the improvement in selection of pitches to attack, it could very well be that we are witnessing Wieters identifying a BABIP baseline more in line with his natural talent. It would not surprise me to see Wieters maintain a BABIP around .300 for the remainder of the season -- no small feet considering his "20" speed on the scouting scale (bottom of the barrel) all but eliminates infield hits from the equation.
Where I'd expect to see the biggest drop-off is in the homeruns. Right now Wieters is on pace to hit around 40 homeruns over the course of the 2012 season, assuming health and rest on par with the first 28 games. That is dramatically higher than what you would expect from a player with his power tool (I graded as a "60" as a prospect, estimating around 25+ homerun potential). Again, in a small sample size, the numbers seem to back-up the scouting. Thus far, Wieters has a HR/FB rate of 24.1% -- an incredibly high number. For comparison, the 2011 homerun champion Jose Bautista hit 43 dingers with a HR/FB rate of 22.5% and a FB rate of 47% (compaired to Wieters' FB rate of around 38% throughout his entire MLB career). Wieters isn't going to hit 40 homeruns, but that HR/FB rate could stay up around 17-18%, considering the improved selective aggression he is showing in 2012, which could lead to around 20 to 23 more big flies over the remainder of the season.
Summary: Matt Wieters is for real, and if Baltimore can stay in contention in 2012 he is the AL MVP without question. He is among the best defensive catchers in the game, and is now establishing himself as not only one of the best offensive catchers, but one of the best middle-of-the-order bats in all of baseball. Expect some backslide as the season takes it's toll on Matt's big body, but make no mistake -- this is what the beginning of a 7.0-7.5 rWAR season looks like.
Over the next two weeks we hope to tick through some of the key components to Baltimore's hot start (certain players and stats) in order to make a determination as to whether these are trends are likely to continue. We start with the player Camden Depot highlighted as the contributor fans should be most excited about entering 2012: Matt Wieters.
Who: Matt Wieters
What: fWAR and rWAR both on pace for approximately 9.25
Buying or selling: Buying
Discussion: Let's clear-up right away that it is highly unlikely Wieters hits the 9.25 WAR mark this season (only nine position players in all of baseball topped the 7.0 rWAR mark in 2011, none topping 8.4). So "buying" isn't buying the 9.25 pace, but Wieters can absolutely be one of the ten most valuable position players in baseball this year. For comparison's sake, in 2011 Wieters was worth 4.6 wins above replacement according to Baseball-Reference.com (rWAR) and 5.0 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs.com (fWAR). For purposes of this discussion, we will focus on rWAR, as that presents us with the largest discrepancy between current pace and last year's performance.
Defensively, Wieters continues to shine. He displays soft hands, quick feet side-to-side, and works well to gameplan, calling an effective game much more often than not. His catch-and-throw skill set remains among the best in game, showing easy plus-plus arm strength with accuracy. With 37% of would-be basestealers caught in 2011, Wieters was second to only Diamondback's backstop Miguel Montero (40%) among catchers logging more than 82 games. Thus far in 2012, Wieters continues to mow down runners, currently at a 44% clip. Additionally, he fields his position well, particular receiving throws from the outfield, handling your typical 'tweener hops with ease while blocking the plate.
The big jump in value this year has been at the plate. From a scouting perspective, the biggest change has been Wieters patience. His approach was advanced, even as a prospect, but has really shone through over the Birds' first 28 games. Wieters has better tapped into a selectively aggressive approach at plate, laying-off more borderline pitches, and charging into the ball with more violence during hitter's counts. While the statistical sample size is too small to provide us adequate ammo for a decisive report, a cursory glance generally matches-up my scouting observations.
According to pitch f/x, as compared to 2011, Wieters has generally maintained his contact rate on pitches in zone (85.4% against 87.9%) and out of the zone (81.6% against 82.2%), and has maintained his swing rate on pitches in the zone (66.9% against 65.3%). Where pitch f/x shows the greatest change is on swing rate on pitches out the zone, where Wieters has cut down to 22.2% from 32.3%. Again, the sample size is small, just 28 games into the season, but this matches with my scouting observations.
On batted balls his LD%, FB%, GB% and IFH% are all within 1% of his 2011 rates, and his GB/FB rate in 2012 is 1.10 versus 1.12 in 2011. His BABIP has climbed to .309 from .276 in 2011, which on the surface might indicate that Wieters has been a little lucky. Keeping in mind the backdrop that batters can more directly impact their own BABIP than can pitchers, and noting the improvement in selection of pitches to attack, it could very well be that we are witnessing Wieters identifying a BABIP baseline more in line with his natural talent. It would not surprise me to see Wieters maintain a BABIP around .300 for the remainder of the season -- no small feet considering his "20" speed on the scouting scale (bottom of the barrel) all but eliminates infield hits from the equation.
Where I'd expect to see the biggest drop-off is in the homeruns. Right now Wieters is on pace to hit around 40 homeruns over the course of the 2012 season, assuming health and rest on par with the first 28 games. That is dramatically higher than what you would expect from a player with his power tool (I graded as a "60" as a prospect, estimating around 25+ homerun potential). Again, in a small sample size, the numbers seem to back-up the scouting. Thus far, Wieters has a HR/FB rate of 24.1% -- an incredibly high number. For comparison, the 2011 homerun champion Jose Bautista hit 43 dingers with a HR/FB rate of 22.5% and a FB rate of 47% (compaired to Wieters' FB rate of around 38% throughout his entire MLB career). Wieters isn't going to hit 40 homeruns, but that HR/FB rate could stay up around 17-18%, considering the improved selective aggression he is showing in 2012, which could lead to around 20 to 23 more big flies over the remainder of the season.
Summary: Matt Wieters is for real, and if Baltimore can stay in contention in 2012 he is the AL MVP without question. He is among the best defensive catchers in the game, and is now establishing himself as not only one of the best offensive catchers, but one of the best middle-of-the-order bats in all of baseball. Expect some backslide as the season takes it's toll on Matt's big body, but make no mistake -- this is what the beginning of a 7.0-7.5 rWAR season looks like.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)