With Braun, MLB and Media Make Mistakes

Ryan Braun won his appeal on a 2-1 vote.  The only vote going against him was made by MLB.  MLBPA and the important one, the arbiter, ruled for the appeal.  It has been explained that the appeal was based on an improper chain of custody.

Yahoo Sports Writer Jeff Passan tweeted that Braun escaped due to using a loophole.  This is lazy reporting and should really be an embarrassment.  A loop hole is an ambiguity in the rule of law that can be exploited to avoid the intent of that law.  In no way could this be considered a loophole.  Braun was in no way responsible for the broken chain of custody.  In order for a loophole argument to be made, Braun would have held some responsibility.  Passan decided to go further and second a statement that Braun won on a technicality as if there was no reason why a chain of custody exists.

Second, his tweet acts like a chain of custody is not important.  I think it is rather safe to say that if a piece of evidence could effectively damage someone's reputation and affect his future earning potential on the field and through sponsorships off the field, the integrity of that biological sample is quite important.  A chain of custody is a guarantee of the identity and integrity of the sample.  This means that not only was the sample not tampered with, but that the sample is handled in a way that would not affect the protocols for testing the sample.

I typically like the work Passan does, but I find his disregard for the scientific integrity of a sample to be rather distasteful.

There are reasons why these rules exist.

The real story here is why was MLB so hell bent to use bad evidence to go after Ryan Braun in what was surely to be a rather public case.

Predicting WAR from FIP and IP

This is more or less a somewhat uninteresting way to determine fWAR in a messy shorthand way.  I ran a regression with FIP and IP as my variables and WAR as the y.  For those who do not often pay attention here, the following definition might be useful:

FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching is a metric that tries to isolate aspects of a stat sheet that the pitcher directly affects. It is calculated using this formula:

        FIP = coefficient + (HR*13 + (BB + HBP - IBB)*3 - K*2) / IP.

The objective of this post is merely to show how FIP and IP relate to fWAR.  I will be using this messy number from time to time over the next couple weeks.  It is also important to recognize that the numbers are league dependent, so an AL and NL equation is needed.

Again...this is just a fast an easy way for me to generate rough fWARs.  You should use the real thing.

Scouting the 2012 Draft: Ryan Ripken

We begin our 2012 Draft coverage with a name with which all Orioles fans will be familiar. Ryan Ripken, son of Cal, is a senior first baseman at Gilman Academy and is elgible for the MLB Rule 4 Draft this June. Ryan is committed to the University of South Carolina, should he choose to forgo pro ball this summer.

Ryan Ripken / 1b / Gilman Academy (Baltimore, Md.)
Ht/Wt: 6-5/190
B/T: L/L
Age at Draft: 18y11m
College Commit: Univ. of South Carolina
Views: 4 (in person); 2 (video)

Grading Out
Now (Future)
Hit: 20 (40/45)
Power: 20 (50/55)
Speed: 25 (30)
Arm: 40 (50)
Defense: 30 (50/55)

*Description of 20/80 scout scale: The Scouting Scale works from 20-80, with 50 being Major League Average. The scale operates loosely on a bell curve, so the further you move from 50 the fewer grades you'll find among ML players (e.g. Justin Verlander's fastball, Mike Trout's speed, Mark Reynold's power, and Albert Pujols' hit tool would all be 80 grade). A 60 grade is sometimes referred to as plus and a 70 grade is sometimes referred to as plus-plus.

Physical Description
Ripken is a long and projectable athlete that should add a significant amount of strength over the next few years. He can struggle with body control, which is expected of a big-bodied high schooler in the midst of a heavy growth period. Despite some clunkiness in actions, he is clearly a solid athlete and shows excellent flexibility. A below average runner, he should pick-up his first step as his coordination and strength round out.

Defense
Ripken provides a large target for his infielders, reads throws well, and makes good use of his reach and flexibility. His range is fringy right now, but should improve as he matures and improves his first step. His hands are better than he will sometimes show. He could easily develop into an above-average glove at the three-spot. His arm strength is solid.

At Bat
Ripken has the offensive aptitude that you would expect of the son of a Hall of Famer. He has a good feel for the strikezone and a more advanced approach than many of his contemporaries. Ripken often does a solid job identifying secondaries and is generally ahead of the curve at picking-up pitcher patterns. His physicality, however, is currently lagging behind his mental approach. While Ripken delivers the barrel fairly well, he lacks the "now" strength to drive the ball. He struggles against better velocity -- particularly up in the zone -- and lacks the bat speed to compensate for late starts when he is looking off-speed. There is some ceiling here, including potential for a solid hit tool and above-average pop, but he is still a ways away from realizing that potential.

Summary
Ripken is currently best suited for college ball, where he'll have an opportunity to continue to refine his game while he finishes growing into his frame. Coach Tanner and the USC staff work well with young hitters, and it is easy to picture a scenario where two years under their tutelage (Ripken will be draft eligible again as a sophomore, due to his age) could result in his reemergence as an early-round prospect in 2014. Ripken has the make-up, bloodlines, and smarts to succeed as a pro -- he just needs his body to catch-up with the rest of him. Area scouts will check-in on him throughout the summer to gauge his physical progress, his bat speed and the development of his power. Barring a jump in physicality over the next three months, the new collective bargaining agreement (which limits teams' ability to give mid-six figure bonuses outside of the first few rounds) will likely make Ripken's decision as to whether to enroll at USC an easy one.

Video

Orioles Will Be Forced to Spend Less on Draft than They Did '08-'11

Baseball America released their projected bonus caps for the 2012 draft.  You will notice that the Orioles have the 11th greatest allotment even though they were the 4th worst team last year.  You will also see that the allotments given to twelve teams, including the Orioles, will be the lowest they have spent on the draft when looking at the past four years.  This includes the Rays who are one of the poorest teams in the league, least capable in competing for free agents, and they have the fourth least amount of money to spend in the amateur draft.  Um, progress?

Team	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Nationals	$4,436,200	$15,002,100	$11,927,200	$11,511,500	$4,761,500
Pirates	$6,563,500	$17,005,700	$11,900,400	$8,918,900	$9,780,500
Blue Jays	$8,830,800	$10,996,500	$11,594,400	$4,895,200	$4,359,500
Red Sox	$6,884,800	$10,978,700	$10,664,400	$7,095,400	$10,515,000
Indians	$4,582,900	$8,225,000	$9,381,500	$4,943,000	$6,984,500
Orioles	$6,826,900	$8,432,100	$9,159,900	$8,730,200	$6,916,500
Rangers	$6,568,200	$4,193,000	$8,487,800	$4,684,200	$7,388,300
Angels	$1,645,700	$3,318,100	$8,095,300	$6,792,900	$2,728,500
Dodgers	$5,202,800	$3,509,300	$7,992,900	$4,037,100	$4,442,500
Tigers	$2,099,300	$2,878,700	$7,301,400	$9,395,100	$3,742,000
Astros	$11,177,700	$5,545,800	$7,275,530	$4,212,800	$6,544,500
Rays	$3,871,000	$11,482,900	$7,150,800	$4,004,500	$9,921,000
Royals	$6,101,500	$14,066,000	$6,697,000	$6,657,000	$11,148,000
Cardinals	$9,131,100	$4,554,000	$6,692,200	$5,388,500	$5,542,000
Yankees	$4,192,200	$6,324,500	$6,652,500	$7,564,500	$5,122,000
Reds	$6,653,800	$6,378,900	$5,739,300	$5,855,400	$4,801,000
Athletics	$8,469,500	$3,067,300	$5,022,400	$6,439,400	$6,522,000
Mariners	$8,223,400	$11,330,500	$4,942,500	$10,945,600	$4,295,000
Rockies	$6,628,300	$3,967,900	$4,785,700	$7,924,300	$4,157,000
Cubs	$7,933,900	$11,994,550	$4,727,100	$4,044,200	$5,545,000
Mets	$7,151,400	$6,782,500	$4,721,200	$3,134,300	$6,460,000
Diamondbacks	$3,818,300	$11,930,000	$4,399,300	$9,328,200	$4,493,500
Marlins	$4,935,100	$4,135,000	$4,380,500	$4,142,800	$5,377,000
Padres	$9,903,100	$11,020,600	$4,262,000	$9,139,000	$5,449,000
Giants	$4,076,400	$6,266,000	$4,102,900	$6,289,000	$9,080,000
White Sox	$5,915,100	$2,786,300	$3,930,200	$4,178,600	$4,663,500
Phillies	$4,916,900	$4,689,800	$3,927,900	$3,229,500	$6,740,500
Braves	$4,030,800	$3,735,700	$3,925,100	$4,400,500	$5,091,500
Twins	$12,368,200	$5,902,300	$3,511,300	$4,694,100	$7,330,498
Brewers	$6,764,700	$7,509,300	$2,432,200	$6,759,500	$8,395,800
Total	$189,903,500	$228,009,050	$195,782,830	$189,335,200	$188,297,598
Average	$6,330,117	$7,600,302	$6,526,094	$6,311,173	$6,276,587

It may well be that the 189.9MM draft pool does not hit that number.  Several teams have relatively high cap values in comparison to what they normally spend.  It will be interesting to see if there is pressure to get near their cap value.

If you are more of a graph person: