2012 Projected Payrolls for MLB

2012 Projected Payrolls from Yahoo.

Great Seasons and Aging

Joe Posnanski wrote this piece about player aging last week.  With Vlad signing on last year and the possibility that Manny might find a home in Baltimore, I figure something similar might be useful here with the understanding that Baltimore needs big time help to be considered a playoff contender.

Posnanski's article made me think about two things: (1) how about truly great seasons, one that are above 9 rWAR and (2) how do pitchers and batters relate to each other?

The graph above is interesting to me because it suggests that there are far more great seasons for batters (155) than pitchers (58).  Second, great seasons for batters basically occur between 23 and 32, which makes one wonder about Albert Pujols' 10 year contract.  The population for pitchers is much smaller than the hitters and that may make for the peculiar distribution above with age 27 and age 33 seasons making for a saddle type of peak.

If you hold the batters at 9 rWAR and drop the pitchers to an 8 rWAR (increasing the pitchers to 132), you get the following graph:

There is no longer as much of a saddle peak and both population appear to be distributed in a similar fashion.

Cup of jO's - Orioles 4S Velocities

Another short graphic today: Velocities of Orioles pitchers on the 40 man roster who threw a pitch in a MLB game last year according to Pitch F/X.

Jason Hammel Will Likely Not Throw His FIP

One of the interesting aspects of the Orioles deal with the Rockies is that they exchanged one pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie, who is one of the more exceptional pitchers in performing better than his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) would indicate for another, Jason Hammel, who is one of the most consistent pitchers who does not match his FIP.  As I wrote in the previous Hammel and Guthrie column, it may be that both pitchers affect BABIP and the quality of the contact.  That would not be something FIP would be able to use.

For those who are unaware of FIP, it is a statistic that Tom Tango devised based on Voros McCracken's seminal work on what parts of the game a pitcher significantly affects.  It uses the following formula:

FIP = constant + ((13*HR) + (3*(BB + HBP - IBB)) - (2*K)) / IP

If you want to napkin scratch it, the constant is 3.2.  However, if you want to be more accurate then you use the following formula:

constant = (league average FIP) - (league average ERA)

This constant is used to give FIP a closer look to ERA.  That way it is easier for the audience to understand FIP as it is translated to our understanding of ERA.  As we have seen, there is good evidence that some pitchers can actually affect the quality of contact.  It does not appear to alter the usefulness of FIP for a large majority of pitchers, but FIP does appear to consistently over or under measure some pitcher's performance.

Two lists are presented below.  The first consists of the ten pitchers over the past five seasons who logged over 500 IP and have outperformed there FIP the most.  The second list is the top ten of those whose FIP indicates a much high performance level than what actually transpired.  Jeremy Guthrie was the 6th best at outperforming his FIP.  Jason Hammel was the 3rd worst against his FIP.  This does not mean that Guthrie is good and Hammel is bad.  It means that FIP does a poor job with either of these pitchers.  FIP pretty much says that the typical pitcher with Guthrie's walks, home runs, hit by pitches, intentional walks, and strikeouts should do much worse than he actually does.  I think this probably means he does a better job than most pitchers in inducing poor quality contact.  FIP says that a typical pitcher with Jason Hammel's walks, home runs, hit by pitches, intentional walks, and strikeouts should do much better than he actually does.  Conversely, it seems that batters get better quality contact on batted balls.

Pitchers who have overperformed their FIP from 2007-2011:

1. Johan Santana Twins/Mets -0.68 ERA - FIP
2. Armando Galarraga Tigers/Diamondbacks -0.66
3. John Lannan Nationals -0.60
-. Trevor Cahill Athletics
5. Joe Saunders Angels/Diamondbcks -0.58
6. Jeremy Guthrie Orioles -0.56
7. Kyle Kendrick Phillies -0.54
8. Tim Hudson Braves -0.53
-. Shaun Marcum Blue Jays/Brewers
10. Bronson Arroyo Reds -0.49

Pitchers who have underperformed their FIP from 2007-2011:

1. Luke Hochevar Royals 0.96 ERA - FIP
2. Ricky Nolasco Marlins 0.79
3. Jason Hammel Rays/Rockies 0.69
4. Francisco Liriano Twins 0.68
5. Kyle Davies Braves/Royals 0.58
6. Zach Duke Pirates/Diamondbacks 0.45
-. Jorge De La Rosa Royals/Rockies 0.44
8. Kevin Slowey Twins
9. Jeff Francis Rockies/Royals 0.42
10. Brian Bannister Royals 0.39

It has been suggested before that perhaps discrepancies between FIP and ERA could be explained by poor infielding or outfielding.  Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Slowey give us a solid comparison as they appear on either list and we can compare ground ball and fly ball rates.  Santana outperformed his FIP and had a 37.6% ground ball rate and a 42.7% fly ball rate.  Liriano and Slowey underperformed against their FIP.  Liriano had a 47.0% ground ball rate and a 35.1% fly ball rate.  Slowey had a 31.6% ground ball rate and a 47.9% fly ball rate.  Santana's rates fall right in the middle of them, so this simple comparison does not implicate infield or outfield defense affecting the FIP discrepancies.

Jorge Arangure Jr. on the Orioles' International Effort

A little less than a year ago I read an article Jorge Arangure, Jr. wrote on Andres Reiner and his role in helping the Tampa Bay Rays establish themselves in Brazil.  What struck me most about the article was this passage:

Even harder to believe is that the Rays have so far spent zero dollars on the construction of the academy [in Brazil near San Paulo].  The 2.5MM project has been subsidized by both federal and local funds.  Tampa Bay's only financial commitment is for the upkeep of the academy, which could be anywhere from 500k to 1MM per year, for the next five years.  Tampa Bay won't even have to spend a dime on players' medical care since all Brazilians are covered through the country's universal health care system.

I do not believe the Orioles have established an academy in any country other than the Dominican Republic.

---

In light of Dan Duquette's effort in acquiring international talent, I decided to ask a few writers, well-versed in these areas, to share some of their thoughts.  Yesterday, I posted an interview with Yoo Jee-ho on the recent troubles experienced by the Orioles when they signed an amateur without informing Korea's amateur governing body, the Korean Baseball Association.

Today, we have the writer mentioned in the short excerpt above, Jorge Arangure, Jr.  He currently is on ESPN's international soccer coverage, but was on the international baseball circuit before then and still dabbles on that subject.  Those with with a steel trap for a memory will recognize him as a former baseball writer for the Washington Post covering the Orioles.

Jon Shepherd: What do the Orioles need to do to make it have a dependable international presence and how long does it realistically take to accomplish that?

Jorge Arangure Jr.: For one, they need to have consistent leadership in that area. For a few years now, they've shuffled around several people with little success. The Fred Ferreira hire probably solves that problem, but you have to wonder whether Ferreira is so far removed from the current Latin American scene that it ends up hurting the team's efforts rather than helping them. A lot has changed in how players are signed in Latin America since the days when Ferreira first stepped foot on the island.

One thing you can't do is simply spend to make the proverbial "statement." I don't think that really works. Several teams have done it and not accomplished anything out of it. What I'd do is increase the team's scouting presence in the DR. For a while, the Orioles have relied on the same group of scouts in the area. That has to change.

I still have my doubts as to whether Peter Angelos really believes in that market. The Orioles have never signed a high-profile, big-name international player. I'm just not sure Angelos likes the risk that comes with that market.

JS: Andres Reiner provided the acclaimed model for acquiring talent out of an emerging market by establishing an academy in Venezuela for the Astros.  Upon leaving the Astros, he set the foundation of a similar plan for the Rays to find useful players in Brazil.  So far, the Orioles appear to be taking a different path by holding try outs and plucking players who perform well.  For a team that is not incredibly cash flush, which approach makes more sense for them?

JA: Well I'd argue with the point that the Orioles aren't flush with cash. I think they are a pretty good revenue team. They simply choose not to spend it in the Latin America area. Having said that, I believe the Orioles have enough money to try both methods. I'd say the Rays vision for Brazil is highly ambitious. It takes a very organized team to pull it off. Everything we know suggests the Rays are that type of team. Everything we know about the Orioles suggests they are not.

JS: The Orioles have been involved in a fiasco by signing a Korean high school player without notifying the country's ruling body.  Why do you think this event has caused more of an uproar than when the Red Sox signed Junichi Tazawa from NPB?

JA: Most importantly, you're talking about two different countries. Tazawa is Japanese, so that's an entirely different baseball federation. The problem is that the Orioles either (a.) Didn't know the rules in Korea, which is troubling in itself because it could suggest that Duquette and the older scouts he's hired will have some catching up to do in regards to learning the regulations of each country, which could essentially back track their hunt for international talent; or (b.) they knowingly broke the rules, which of course is troublesome for all other sorts of reasons.

The Red Sox asked for and received permission from the Japanese baseball federation to sign Tazawa after he had graduated. Not only did the Orioles not ask permission, they also signed a player who had not yet graduated from high school, which is a big misstep.

JS: Do you think the prospects and their families potentially think poorly of the Orioles organization, limiting opportunities for the team to acquire talent in the future?  Have there been comparable events that happened in Latin America?

JA: I'm not sure this fiasco really hurts the Orioles in the eyes of the players themselves, but it makes them targets in the eyes of the baseball federations. The positive for the Orioles is that this type of system really only exists in Asia. Teams don't have to deal with baseball federations in Latin America.

JS: Based on your knowledge, who is doing the best job attracting and developing international talent?  What is this team doing that is so special and remarkable?

JA: I'd say the Rangers are probably at the top of the list. No team spends as much money as they do. But not only are they financially committed to Latin America, they also have the most manpower in the area. It's rare when I make a trip to Latin America and don't see a Rangers scout at a workout. It's rare when I'm in Latin America and I don't see one of their top execs there. They spend the money, but they do so after having done the work.

An Interview with Yoo Jee-ho About the Orioles and South Korea

Sajik Stadium in Busan

If you have been following the Orioles' signing Kim Seong-Min and that signings' aftermath, you know the name of Yoo Jee-ho.  He has been reporting for Yonhap News Agency on how the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), the governing body of two professional leagues in South Korea, and the Korean Baseball Association, the governing body of amateur baseball in South Korea, have reacted to the Orioles not abiding to the agreement in place for MLB teams to sign amateur talent.

Jon Shepherd: How much of a presence does Major League Baseball have in South Korea?

Yoo Jee-ho: A few teams have been sending scouts to Korean high school and college (or university as we’d like to call it here) tournaments in recent years. Some are based in Korea or others may be stationed somewhere in Asia and travel here for some big tournaments. More young players have signed with big league clubs in the last two, three years than in the past (almost a dozen since 2009).

As far as helping KBO developing baseball programs, I am not aware of any MLB involvement in that regard. I personally don’t see it as something MLB absolutely has to do here. But critics of MLB teams’ signing young Korean prospects may feel differently.

JS: Are certain teams viewed more favorably than others by players and families?

YJ: I am not sure if any one particular team is more favored than others by players and parents. But I’d imagine it’s probably the same with kids in other countries dreaming of playing in the majors.  They would all want to play for the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or other storied ball clubs. Would young players take less money to play for, say, the Yankees, rather than for the Pirates? I doubt it, and it’s not just the money. I think these players will take any opportunity that they can get to join a major league team and have a chance to play in the big leagues someday. 

JS: Can you briefly explain what has transpired between KBO, KBA, and the Baltimore Orioles?

YJ: It really is a long story and I will try to make it short. 

The Orioles signed Kim Seong-min to a minor league deal in January. The KBO, which runs the top baseball league here, claimed that the O’s didn’t go through the “status check” as detailed under the KBO-MLB player contract agreement. An MLB team interested in a Korean amateur or pro must, through MLB commissioner’s office, “check” that player’s status and availability with the KBO.
 

If I may digress a bit and delve a little deeper into this, MLB teams, following the status check, must receive KBO’s approval to sign an active professional player here. But they can sign amateur players as long as they go through the status check. And even KBO officials say status checks are just a formality.  With pros, KBO can say, “Nope, you can’t talk to this guy because he’s under contract and his current team doesn’t want to let him go.” But with amateurs, the most KBO can tell an interested MLB club is, “He will be eligible for the KBO draft next year. We hope you don’t engage this player.” But that doesn’t prevent the MLB team from signing him.  Against this backdrop, the KBO now wants to tweak the agreement to ban MLB clubs from signing amateur players at all.

 

Back to the situation. The KBA, which is the local baseball governing body, has suspended Kim indefinitely from playing or coaching in Korea, and that was in accordance with a local rule. Underclassmen (student-athletes not currently in the final year of their study, at high school or college) must not contact domestic or foreign professional teams. In Korea, a new school year starts in March. Kim was just about to enter his senior year in high school.

The KBA also banned Orioles’ scouts from attending KBA-sanctioned games, such as national high school and college tournaments. It has also warned that other MLB teams that fail to take proper steps in their dealing with prospects will have their scouts banned from Korean games.

I think this will definitely affect MLB’s relationship with KBO and with Korea as a whole. Other teams must have taken notice of this development. KBO and KBA obviously have their own interests, but I think they have taken steps that will likely be seen as being too restrictive.

JS: In your opinion, what changes to the existing agreement between KBO and MLB would be best for the development of baseball as a professional sport in South Korea?

YJ: I don’t think banning MLB teams from signing Korean amateurs is the answer. MLB wouldn’t agree to this sort of change anyway.

 

Here’s the one change that I think may work.  When a player is drafted by a KBO team out of high school, the player has a one-month window to choose between going to college or signing with the KBO team. In my opinion, you can allow MLB teams to engage and possibly sign such players after that one-month period ends. Tampering will have to be prohibited, of course.  KBO teams will reserve the priority to negotiate and sign such players. So MLB teams will be looking at either a KBO rookie or a college freshman to sign.

It’d be easy for big league clubs to lure top talent by coming in with loads of cash, right? Not so fast. Not every teenage player will want to go overseas to play for different reasons (fear of culture shock, language problems, simply wanting to stay home close to family, etc). Plus, top young guns get six figures in signing bonus from KBO teams and MLB teams may or may not want to match that to take them.  In other words, if the money is right and they’d rather stay home, more Korean players than you’d think will choose to stay with the KBO.

This bit of change will mean a limited window for MLB teams to sign. But I think it will work both ways because a) young players, having already been drafted, will have a KBO team to fall back on if talks with MLB teams don’t go well and b) MLB teams will have a better idea of how much they want to pay players given their draft position (i.e. Should we pay this kid $500,000 when he was only drafted 10^th overall in Korea? Should we spend that money on some other prospect from elsewhere?)

JS: There has been some debate in the United States as to how good of a player Kim Seong-Min is. Do you have any information on his abilities? 

YJ: He had an excellent 2011. Kim pitched 74 2/3 innings in 21 games, won eight games, and posted an ERA of 1.39. In August, at a national high school tournament, Kim went 3-0 with a zero ERA and 19 Ks in 22 innings to win the MVP.

 

Kim was considered the top lefty in high schools over here and since he had another high school season ahead of him (before the Baltimore deal), local scouts felt that Kim could improve even more and eventually become a first-round draft choice in the KBO.  His fastball tops out at about 89-90 miles per hour, and he also throws above-average changeup and curve. Obviously not overpowering, but he’s got decent command. Any left-hander with his upside and stuff is a valued commodity here, but I myself was surprised to see him snatched up by a major league team. Maybe the O’s scouts saw something in him.

JS: Will this incident affect the Orioles ability to sign premier players from South Korea?

YJ: For the foreseeable future, absolutely. (Poor Dan Duquette. The guy loves Korean players.) Their scouts are banned from going to Korean games and that will obviously limit their ability to assess talent here. Duquette has apologized for “unintentional breach of protocol” but I don’t think the KBO is that much interested in apologies. Rather, the KBO wants to change the agreement to at least limit the outflow of young talent from here. In a way, the O’s move may affect all MLB teams’ ability to scout and sign premier young talent in Korea.

---

To stay on top of the Kim Seung-min situation and Korean baseball in general, follow Yoo Jee-ho on twitter and at Yonhap News. 

Cup of jO's - MiL Position Players Signings

Here is a quick rundown of the MiL position players the Orioles signed this off season.

Catchers
Zach Booker (26) - Has played six games in three years.  He literally is a player-coach.
Allan De San Miguel (24) - An Aussie who has spent his entire career with the Twins.  Organizational.
Ronny Paulino (30) - First time in six years that he knows he is heading to AAA.
Dane Sardinha (32) - This is likely his ninth straight year in AAA.

First Basemen
Nick Johnson (33) - One of the best hitting prospects in the last 15 years, injuries derailed career. Overcoming wrist injury.
Jeff Larish (30) - Strong AAA bat that silences in the Majors.

Second Basemen
Travis Adair (24) - Show a good bat in high A, but struggled mightily in AA and cut by Texas.

Shortstop
Carlos Rojas (28) - Spent last four years in Orioles organization providing AA and AAA depth.
Steve Tolleson (28) - Solid utility bat who will likely appear in Baltimore at some point this year.

Third Basemen
Matt Antonelli (26) - A once promising prospect, Antonelli signed a MLB deal thanks to his MiL OBP.

Outfielders
Scott Beerer (29) - Pitcher turned hitter due to arm issues, shows some contact and power skills.
Antoan Richardson (28) - Plus speed and decent OBP skills.