Cup of jO's: Orioles Pitcher Whiff Rates

Another short post today...the following graph depicts the swing and miss rates for batters when they choose to swing at a specific pitch.  The pitchers included below are on the Orioles 40 man roster and appeared in an MLB game last year.  Each line represents 10% whiff rate.

Cup of jO's: Joe Mahoney is Tall

Sexson shows the benefit of size.

Joe Mahoney is 6'6.  That is pretty tall for a first baseman.  How tall is it?  In the history of the game there have been 10 first basemen who have been 6'6 or taller.  Here is that list:

Richie Sexson 14.4 rWAR, 1367 games
Tony Clark 11.8 rWAR, 1559 games
Damon Minor 0.2 rWAR, 136 games
Ron Jackson 0.2 rWAR, 196 games
Cotton Nash 0.0 rWAR, 13 games
Julio Zuleta -0.3 rWAR, 79 games
Desi Wilson -0.4 rWAR, 41 games
Brad Eldred -1.3 rWAR, 85 games
Don Gile -1.3 rWAR, 58 games
Howie Schultz -2.7 rWAR, 470 games

This list in and of itself does not impart a great deal of information about how successful Joe Mahoney could be.  Nick wrote this on Mahoney this past fall:

Joe Mahoney is a bat-first corner defender likely to end-up at first base or designated hitter, full time. He has some length to his swing, a not-insignificant leak entering his weight transfer and a moderate to heavy backside collapse, depending on the at bat. Prognosis? It's unlikely contact will be Mahoney's strong suit, and he could be quickly exposed at the Major League level, if not Triple-A. He projects as a bench bat or Four-A player.

In discussions about Joe Mahoney entering his age 25 season and how he has not yet been able to tap into his power potential, it has been argued that players with such immense height require extra development time in order to be able to successful control the strike zone.  However, I am not so sure about that.  Richie Sexson established himself as a big league player at the end of the 1998 season at the age of 23.  He really did not harness his power stroke until he was 22.  Tony Clark established himself in 1996 as a 24 year old.  Clark's power emerged as a 22 year old.

I think it is fair to say that of the players of his dimensions who have been successful, Mahoney is two to three years behind them.  That said, I am not sure that grouping players on the extreme ends of height is a useful exercise.  It is more prudent to stick to traditional scouting on this one and it pretty much says something similar, which is that Joe Mahoney is likely to have more in common with Julio Zuleta than Richie Sexson.

Cup of jO's: 2012 Composite Orioles Prospect Rankings

It has gotten to that point in the year when we can do some composite rankings.  I decided to throw this together when we had a question on Joe Mahoney and how the Depot is not very high on him.  Mahoney certainly is an interesting player.  There seems to be a dichotomy between the two national ranking sources I used (Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein) and the two more local sources (Nick Faleris and Tony Pente).  Both the local sources do not see Mahoney as a top 20 player whereas Goldstein and BA ranked him 12th and 13th, respectively.  Perhaps more importantly is that general consensus that the Orioles system is top heavy like a lollipop.  Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado profile as elite talents with Jonathan Schoop as fringe elite.

The rankings below use an average of the four sources rank to determine a mean rank.  Any players not found in a particular source's top 15 were considered 'unranked' and assigned a rank value of 20.  The column to the left has many scouting reports for the players listed below.  Simply click on the name to the left.

2012 Orioles Composite Prospect Rankings

1. Dylan Bundy
    Mean - 1; Low - 1; High - 1
2. Manny Machado
    Mean - 2; Low - 2; High - 2
3. Jonathan Schoop
    Mean - 3; Low - 3; High - 3
4. Nicky Delmonico
    Mean - 5; Low - 4; High - 6
5. Parker Bridwell
    Mean - 6; Low - 4; High - 7
6. L.J. Hoes
    Mean - 6.25; Low - 5; High - 10
7. Jason Esposito
    Mean - 6.75; Low - 5; High - 8
8. Dan Klein
    Mean - 8.75; Low - 8; High - 10
9. Bobby Bundy
    Mean - 10.25; Low - 4; High - unranked
10. Clayton Schrader
    Mean - 13; Low - 9; High - unranked
11. Xavier Avery
    Mean - 13.25; Low - 8; High - unranked
12. Michael Wright
    Mean - 14.25; Low - 10; High - unranked
13. Eduardo Rodriguez
    Mean - 14.5; Low - 11; High - unranked
14. Ryan Adams
    Mean - 15.25; Low - 9; High - unranked
15. Glynn Davis
    Mean - 15.5; Low - 9; High - unranked

A couple quick notes:

• There is apparently industry agreement on the first three talents: Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop
• The most volatile ranking is Bobby Bundy who was ranked as high as fourth (by Nick Faleris) and unranked by Baseball America.

Jason Hammel is Jeremy Guthrie

A 5 point ERA isn't good enough to be a competitive big league pitcher and we've got numerous pitchers on the roster in that area.

Dan Duquette said that in the presser that also announced that he traded Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.  That statement was not in reference to Guthrie who crossed over the threshold to 5.04 in 2009.  It was likely a shot at Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, and Tommy Hunter.  It was also not likely in reference to the newly acquired Jason Hammel who has a career 4.99 ERA (h/t Mike Bonsiero).  However, that is just so much of a near coincidence that I had to mention it.

Although I do not believe they will perform equally, the main bet here is that Jason Hammel and Jeremy Guthrie are not all that different from each other.

                            rWAR         fWAR
Jason Hammel     5.5              8.8
Jeremy Guthrie   8.9              5.8

After seeing these numbers one might ask first: how are rWAR and fWAR different?  Well, rWAR uses total zone data and is based on the concept that the pitcher is responsible for BABIP.  The other method assumes that the way to measure pitching is by normalizing in the form of Defense Independent Pitching Statistics.  Using that frame of reference, fWAR probably hurts him due to Guthrie's tendency to give up fly balls and home runs while rWAR considers him to be responsible for generating a lower BABIP.  Hammel is benefited by fWAR for his K rate and low walks (last year through was not kind) while rWAR thinks he was a bit hittable.  If you are a staunch believer in pitchers controlling their BABIP fate (even in lieu of the strikeouts that typically relate to low BABIP) then you are likely to think that Guthrie is an above average pitcher who is worth 10MM.  If you are a fWAR guy, then you might think Guthrie is average to below average and worth about 7MM.  Strangely, that was basically the difference between the two arbitration values for Guthrie.  In the end, the Rockies signed him to a 8.2MM deal while the Orioles have Hammel and Lindstrom for 8.5MM.

I tend to lean more in the fWAR direction, but am open to the idea that we know very little about how pitchers affect how well balls are hit.  In other words, I see no issue in weighting rWAR and fWAR equally for pitchers.  This would suggest that, yes, Jason Hammel is worth as much as Jeremy Guthrie.  However, Hammel's 2011 gives me some pause and it probably would for anyone who fully embraces fWAR.  In 2009 and 2010, Hammel enjoyed 3.9 fWAR each year.  Last year, it dropped to 1.0.  Much of this was due to his strikeout rate dropping 30% and his walks jumping up 51%.  Meanwhile, rWAR zealots would not be too worried as a drop in BABIP compensated for those and netted him his best rWAR over the last three years with a 2.0.  Maybe it is a push.

If you take the above to heart and find Hammel and Guthrie equivalent then a second control year of Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are just gravy.  Lindstrom is a 96 mph four seamer and slider guy.  He has historically had some trouble with lefties, which makes sense based on the pitches he has.  Lindstrom is a solid back end arm and is also under team control for two years.

So...why do I not like the trade if it looks like a push in so many ways?

It kicks the talent can another year.  Guthrie's worth has been converted into Hammel and Lindstrom.  Hammel's peripherals last year concern me.  I am not certain that he all of a sudden gained an ability to depress BABIP rates.  I more believe that he has lost his ability to strike batters out.  In that regard, I do not see a Guthrie for Lindstrom trade being worthwhile as it places too much value in a somewhat hittable flame thrower.  I think this move runs counter to building this franchise into a winner.  Young, cost-controlled talent would be preferable even if that talent had a low probability of being a difference maker.

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Addendum

Dan Duquette mentioned that Jason Hammel pitched better away from Coors field and that would enable him to throw 200 IP instead of the 170 IP he has been hitting.

Has Hammel performed better away from Coors' Field?

              Home           Away
2009       5.73              3.13

2010       4.07              5.71

2011       5.20              4.28

What does Manny Ramirez offer the Orioles?

Watching Manny hit his 500th HR off Chad Bradford

Manny's path has never appeared to make sense to others, but that path has been suggested as perhaps leading through Baltimore.  This has resulted in the expected gnashing of teeth.  Acquiring Manny would seem familiar with the moves the Orioles have made in the last decade, such as picking over the remains of Sammy Sosa, the second coming of Raffy, and Vladimir Guerrero.  All have had Hall of Fame quality careers, but there is not much reason to have thought any of them would be a game changer.  Additionally, Manny is Manny.  His actions often appear incredibly self-centered and aloof, such as the story of how he once left a game early, took all of the Dominican style food a teammate's mother had made for the team and then replaced it with Italian takeout.  That is a weird and wonderful story.  You could also go with the whole him refusing to play in 2007.  At first look, there does not seem to be much for the Orioles to be interested in him.

Performance Issues

Fifteen players since 1972 have played as designated hitters during their age 40 season with over 100 plate appearances.  They break into four easy categories.

Good
Dave Winfield (1992) - 3.7 rWAR
Edgar Martinez (2003) - 3.5 rWAR

Average
Brian Downing (1991) - 2.5 rWAR
Harold Baines (1999) - 2.3 rWAR

Role Player
Jim Thome (2011) - 1.4 rWAR
Paul Molitor (1997) - 1.4 rWAR
Reggie Jackson (1986) - 1.3 rWAR

Replacement Level and Below
Tony Perez (1982) - 0.3 rWAR
Frank Thomas (2008) - 0.0 rWAR
George Brett (1993) - -0.4 rWAR
Matt Stairs (2008) - -0.7 rWAR
Ken Griffey Jr (2010) - -0.8 rWAR
Eddie Murray (1998) - -0.8 rWAR
Hal McRae (1986) - -0.9 rWAR
Dave Parker (1991) - -1.4rWAR

What differs Manny from these players is that he did not see any significant time during his age 39 season with only 17 plate appearances over five games.  In fact, it is actually quite rare for any starting caliber player at 1B, LF, RF, or DH to log in less than 50 plate appearances in one season and then come back for another.  Since 1991, it has happened twice for players in their 30s.  Darren Daulton lost his 1996 season to injury.  His OPS+ in 1995 was 101 and it rose to 121 in 1997, which was his final season.  Xavier Nady is the other occurrence.  He slugged a 127 OPS+ in 2008 for the Pirates and Yankees, lost 2009 to injury, and then hit at a 75 OPS+ clip for the ChiSox in 2010.  That is a sample size of two with one doing quite well and the retiring while the other probably should be retired.  However, it should be mentioned that most players in their 30s who log less than 50 at bats do not come back the following year.

From the older player who missed a year perspective, Manny does not look like a good buy.  ZIPS projects Manny as a 241/342/363 hitter.  If such a hitter was able to spend a full 695 plate appearances at that level as a DH, he would have earned near a replacement level with a 0.5 WAR.  That is an upgrade from Vlad's 0.1 WAR over 591 plate appearances and 7.6MM.  Manny's last full three seasons also show some reason for concern when looking at isolated power (ISO):

2008: .270
2009: .241
2010: .162

That free fall is slightly worse than pre-Oriole Garrett Atkins (.185->.165->.116).  Anecdotally, I have rarely seen a three season free fall in ISO turn around 180 degrees.

With this performance history it is difficult to see how a team could offer anything more than a Minor League invite without any promises.  The Tampa Bay Rays looked at the same data set, minus the extra year of aging and not playing, and only gave Manny a 2MM MLB contract.  They apparently were the only ones interested in promising him a full salary.  Tampa Bay also did not have knowledge of the events that would transpire during the 2012 season.

The Suspension and Then it Got Worse

Most players in their 30s who play very little have injuries or performance issues as the cause for the reduction in playing time.  Manny's issue was for testing positive for an unnamed (as far as I am aware) performance enhancing drug.  It was the second time he had tested positive for a banned substance.  He had served a 50 game suspension with the Dodgers in 2009.  This being the second time, he was to serve 100 days.  Instead of serving that time, Manny retired and fled the lime light.  As it was reported, Manny's desire to evade any uncomfortable situations struck his teammates, the media, and the fans as him being extremely selfish and immature.  It is the meme that has followed him throughout his playing career. 

It got worse in September.  Police in Weston, Florida were called to Manny's home.  His wife had called and claimed that they were having an argument.  That argument resulted in allegedly slapping her, causing her to fall and hit her head on the headboard of their bed.  Upon arrival, she told the deputy that she called the police because she feared the situation would escalate.  Manny was arrested on the charge of domestic battery.  He entered a not guilty plea at a hearing in October.  His next court date is schedule March 28.

Conclusion
The Orioles do not have much to gain or lose here.  Manny could come to Spring Training, go to court at the end, and do whatever he may plea to while serving out a 50 game suspension (MLB and MLBPA compromise) as technically a minor leaguer.  He would then spend a couple weeks in the minors trying to work off the rust.  You could expect him in an Oriole uniform in mid-June.  That would give him six weeks to show off any hitting ability that could reward the Orioles with a fringe prospect.  Again, the best case scenario is that Manny plays six weeks, earns about 300-500k, and nets you a fringe prospect.  The worst case scenario is that Manny is awful, but stays on the straight and narrow.  This would force the Orioles to cut him and swallow 1-1.5MM.

Signing Manny should not cause a gnashing of teeth.  This move would be a far cry from MacPhail's eagerness to send replacement level veterans off with a retirement package.  However, I do not see much point in signing a 40 year old who took off last season, is in a downward trajectory, has alienated many of his previous teammates, and has an open court case on the charges of domestic battery.