Free Agents - First Base

This is the second of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

David Ortiz might be a good value at first base.

Another area for improvement for the Orioles would be to upgrade at first base.  In these listings, I have also included several internal options in addition to free agents.  For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Elite (greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Albert Pujols (6.9)
Pujols is arguably the best player in the game and is likely to pull in an 8 year, 200 MM deal.  This is likely to be beyond what the Orioles could afford.  In the near term, his presence can completely change a team with his elite offense and good defense.
Prince Fielder (5.7)
We mentioned earlier that Fielder is likely to be the better deal of the two.  He does not have Pujols profile, but he is a decent bet to give back value on his contract.  There are some concerns about his body type as people remember Mo Vaughn, but David Ortiz has aged somewhat well.

Good (3.5 - 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
David Ortiz (3.5)
Speaking of David Ortiz, this might seem a little peculiar.  Ortiz is not a first baseman, but he does have a solid bat.  If we assume he costs a team 15 runs as a first base man, he still projects as being worth 3.5 WAR / 600 PA.  At 36 years old, he certainly is a candidate to see his performance collapse.

Above Average (2.5 - 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Derrek Lee (2.9)
The Orioles were quite underwhelmed with Lee's performance last year.  However, in Pittsburgh his offense blew up and he finished the year strong.  He could reward someone who takes a chance on him.
Carlos Pena (2.8)
Pena seems to be underrated by many.  He has a solid bat and is a solid defender at first base.  Chicago will probably look in a different direction for first base this year.  A team might be able to sign him to a short term deal for under 10 MM.
Nick Markakis (2.6)
Markakis played first a few times last year and, according to this system, is currently the Orioles' best option at first base.  However, he is more valuable in right field.

Average (1.5 - 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Michael Cuddyer (2.2)
Cuddyer can play several positions while playing none of them particularly well.  That versatility is valuable, but it appears to me that he is somewhat overvalued for his versatility.
Mark Reynolds (2.1)
If Reynolds is truly a -30 run defender at third, then he has to move off the hot corner.  If he is more in line with his career line of -10, then he probably should head back to third base.  He would provide decent production here, but he would not be special.
Luke Scott (1.9)
Scott's year last year caused his value to take a dive.  If last year was the result of several injuries that do not affect his 2012 season, then he could potentially be the best option at first.
Eric Hinske (1.7)
Hinske followed two solid seasons with a poor one last year.  It is always difficult to expect a bounce back season from a 34 year old who is better utilized as a platoon player.
Casey Kotchman (1.6)
How much do you believe in Kotchman's awful 2010 season?  How much do you believe in his outstanding 2011 season?  A good bit of his worth is also tied up into his glove.

Poor Starter (0.75 - 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Russell Branyan (1.4)
Branyan had a poor season last year and is also a bit of a platoon player.  I would not be too sold on him.
Lyle Overbay (1.3)
Overbay has been on a downward trend the last few years.
Brad Hawpe (1.2)
Hawpe is not the guy he used to be.  His performance has collapsed.
Juan Rivera (1.2)
Rivera has some value for a team who wants a contact oriented power bat off the bench.  Beyond that, I don't see much value here.
Nolan Reimold (0.8)
Reimold's 2010 hurts his value here.  If you believe in what he did last year, then he looks like a 1.7 WAR player at first base.  He could be passable, but you need to get more production out of other positions if this is to be a first division team.


The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR)
Mark Kotsay (0.7), Ross Gload (0.4), Xavier Nady (-0.2), Chris Davis (-0.3), and Jorge Cantu (-1.3).

Conclusion
If the Orioles are to go big then putting money down on Fielder makes more sense to me than Pujols for the reasons I spelled out in a previous post.  If the next tier of talent is considered, I would target a one or two year deal for Pena or Ortiz.  Beyond that, I would place Mark Reynolds at first base.

Prince over Pujols?

As I mentioned in a previous post, it seems that signing Prince Fielder would mark for a remarkable improvement for the Orioles assuming a place other than third base could be found for Mark Reynolds.  Cost was not considered for the most part in that evaluation.  A couple weeks ago, I posted what appeared to be an indication that teams have been paying players on average 76% of their weighted WAR worth from the previous three seasons.  Using that method, Prince Fielder would cost about 18.8 MM per year.  If that is the case, how many years would it make sense to go with Fielder at that price?  What if he is about to demand more?  At what point do you turn away?  Making matters bit more interesting is a recent article that questions how Prince's physique will factor into his age-dependent performance.  Also, what about Albert Pujols?

Performance
The following graph showing predicted performance measure for both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder with an additional projection of Prince Fielder with consideration for his body shape (from the FanGraphs post mentioned above).  Roughly put, players tend to peak around age 28 in their performance and plateau with a slight downward direction until about age 32.  Around age 32, they tend to decrease about 0.5 WAR per year until about 38 where the decrease is more like 1 WAR per year decrease.  There are certainly exceptions, but the population of players tends to go in that direction.  The FanGraphs body type prediction puts Fielder in a more extreme decline where he starts seeing a 1 WAR decline per year about 7 years earlier than the general population.  It should also be mentioned that, rather arguably, I have decided to ignore defensive performance at first base.  It could be argued that Pujols is worth about 5 to 10 runs more each year than Fielder.  However, I think the difference will be smaller with aging.  I think in about 5 years, neither will be suitable for the field.

A couple interesting things I find about these projections:

• After ten years, Albert Pujols cumulative production appears equivalent to an average aging Prince Fielder.  Keep in mind, Pujols is five years older and is not seen as being able to play in the Majors ten years from now.
• The body shape dependent aging Prince Fielder is done after eight seasons with a eighth one being a 1 WAR season.  He likely will be in the majors the following year (year nine), but should not be useful.
• Again, differences in fielding are not taken into consideration here.  You could argue that there would actually be a 5-8 WAR difference between the two at the end of the contract.  It depends how you perceive their defense and how they will age affect their performance in the field.

How much is their performance worth?
In the following graph, I have taken the performance detailed in the section above and compared it with predicted contract inflation.  In other words, how much would it take a team to purchase the level of production Pujols or Fielder would provide if said team had to buy it each year in the free agent market.  I am assuming that a win is worth 5 MM this off season and that contracts will inflate 5% each year.

A couple points to take from this graph:

• Pujols will be worth 200 MM over nine years and then be at or below replacement level.  An average aging Fielder will be worth 205 MM.
• Over ten years, Fielders and Pujols production may have been predicted as equal, but Fielder is producing in the final year with a higher cost per win.  For this reason, he winds up with a greater overall predicted monetary value.
• Fielder's accelerated aging curve flat lines him at 170 MM from eight years out onward.

Cost Savings: Predicted Worth vs Predicted Cost
Assuming that the previous few years contracts hold true in a 24% devaluing of weighted WAR production from the previous three seasons, we are looking at Fielder being worth about 18.8 MM per year and Albert Pujols worth 24.9 MM per year.  This yields the following graph on Cost Savings.

• Albert Pujols at 25 MM would make sense through seven years.
• An average aging Prince Fielder would make sense at 18.8 MM through ten years and would wind up breaking even after eleven years.
• An advanced-aging Prince Fielder would make sense at 18.8 MM through nine years.

What if they receive greater per year deals?
Albert Pujols
The three scenarios I look at for Albert Pujols were his 25 MM predicted value, a 27.5 MM value (equivalent to Alex Rodriguez), and him hitting the 30 MM mark.

Where Pujols makes sense at 25 MM for seven years, a small shift to 27.5 MM cuts that down to a five year deal.  At no point is Pujols projected as a good value at 30 MM.  Due to players needing big money, Pujols may 'need' a big number like 200 MM.  In that case, the best deal out there would be eight years for 200 MM.  Perhaps you tack on an evergreen clause at the end at 25-30 MM per year if he hits certain performance marks in year seven and eight of this proposed contract.  Reaching that 200 MM level results in poor contract at anything above 25 MM.

Prince Fielder
The three scenarios I chose for Prince are 20 MM (simply because it is a benchmark numbers and 18.8 is not), 22.5 MM (it surpasses what Adrian Gonzalez is making and is equal to Mark Teixeira), and 25 MM (it is equal to Ryan Howard's silly contract extension).

At 20 MM per year, Fielder holds that value cumulatively through ten years of service while his aging counterpart keeps that value through eight years.  At 22.5 MM per year, he holds value through eight years with average decline and seven through advanced decline.  At 25 MM per year, he holds that value through six years no matter his aging curve.  With this knowledge, I see three potential contracts:

• 8 years, 160 MM with a buyout of 10 MM on a 2 years, 60 MM extension,
• 7 years, 160 MM with a buyout of 10 MM on a 2 years, 60 MM extension, or
• 6 years, 150 MM with a buyout of 10 MM on a 2 years, 60 MM extension.

I would prefer those contracts in that order for Fielder.  I think you have to recognize that he does have a body type that is likely not to age well.  Some players, like David Ortiz, do manage to sustain performance, so if you are really in need of Fielder I could see an additional one or two million per year or an additional year or two on length.

Conclusion
If the Orioles are trying to win now, I could see it making sense to sign either Pujols or Fielder.  If the answer is right this very minute then Pujols makes sense, but if the win now window is over the next five years then Fielder makes more sense.  I do think the difference between the two is not as great over the long run as people think because of the significant age difference between the two.  When it is all said and done, Pujols will have the much better career, but they look somewhat similar in terms of production over the next ten years.

I think it is almost interesting to keep in mind the contract projection of 8 years and 200 MM for Pujols and 8 years and 150 MM for Fielder.  If those hold true, Fielder will be save his team 20-30 MM in terms of production while Pujols will cost his team 6 MM.  The resulting question is how much does that 26-36 MM difference mean to wins and losses.  From a free agent point of view, that might mean five wins total over those eight years.  If that money is instead used for signing amateur talent, it might be worth about ten to fifteen wins over those eight years.

Orioles Year in Review and 2012: Outfield and Designated Hitter

Perennially neglected Nolan Reimold

In the previous review piece we identified defense at third base being a black whole in the infield.  A few days ago, we noted that the Orioles' OF defense in terms of range was a great hindrance to the team.  In our prediction here we think that the team is not 4 games below average bad, but more like 2 games below average.  That would still rate as one of the worst defensive outfields in the AL.

Left Field: Nolan Reimold (2.0 predicted 2012 WAR) and Matt Angle (-0.1)
First Third  >3.5 fWAR (Yankees, Rays)
Middle Third  1.6 - 3.5 fWAR (Red Sox)
Bottom Third  <1.6 fWAR (Orioles, Blue Jays)

Here at Camden Depot, we have always believed in Nolan Reimold as being capable of average to above average play.  He has good athleticism and plus power potential that could transition into a solid option in left field.  In 2011, the O's chose to start with Luke Scott and Felix Pie in left field.  Scott used to be adequate in left field.  He never had much range, but he took good route, had soft hands, and knew where to throw with an accurate average-strength arm.  Add that average defense to an above average bat and you have a solid player.  The streaky Scott was consistently bad at the plate and finally fell below what would be adequate range in left field.  He had a horrible year.  Pie wound up earning more time in left than he really deserved.  All of the positives in defense and potential with his bat evaporated in 2011 with Pie earning -2.1 fWAR.  Reimold was the only positive producer in left with a 1.5 fWAR, but often appeared to be place in LF begrudgingly by Buck.  The O's have never seemed to like Reimold.  It would be surprising to me if they do not, again, try to prevent him from earning any significant time in the field.  As a team, the Orioles were ranked 29th in left field production with a -1.2 fWAR.

For 2012, we have Reimold and Matt Angle as being the bearers of opportunity here.  I think the O's will have Angle in left as a fourth outfielder in 2012, but Reimold is likely to be iffy as the front office plans for next year.  

A 1.9 fWAR would ranked as 19th overall for LF in 2011.


Center Field: Adam Jones (2.4 predicted 2012 WAR) and Matt Angle (0.1)
First Third  >4.8 fWAR (Red Sox, Yankees)
Middle Third  2.7 - 4.8 fWAR (Orioles, Rays)
Bottom Third  <2.7 fWAR (Blue Jays)

For 2011, centerfield was nothing special for the Orioles.  I think it is clear that Adam Jones is good, but he is not a star.  It s easy to remember Jones' big hits.  He has plus power for a centerfielder, but his on base percentage is rather unimpressive.  Jones' poor ability to earn walks (4.7% which is about half of what an average player earns) counters his impressive bat.  It is also easy to remember Jones chasing down a fly ball, stealing a home run, or his strong accurate arm.  It is so impressive that MLB managers were polled by Baseball America in 2011 and they declared that Jones is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game.  Now, defensive metrics are not perfect, but when every metric consistently tells you the same thing about Jones (that he is a below average defensive outfielder) then it just might be that the conventional wisdom is incorrect.  Over his career, he ranks as an average CF on the road and as a below average CF at Camden Yards.  It is our opinion that Jones could be a good left fielder (assuming the bat holds or improves) or an average centerfielder (for a couple years).  Angle is a solid defender, but he has no bat.  All of the players in centerfield in 2011 gave the team a 2.9 fWAR, which ranked as 20th overall in MLB.

In 2012, we think things will be slightly worse.  Our model prediction is that Jones will be a 320 OBP and 440 SLG hitter.  Basically, he will get on base about the same and show slightly less power.  We also think that Jones' defense will not be as poor as UZR and other metrics suggested this year.  We denoted him simply as a -5 run player in center field.  Angle's defense will hold out well in center, but his bat renders him a replacement level player.  Together we see them as a 2.5 WAR duo, which makes this a potential third tier pairing.

A 2.5 fWAR would rank as 23rd overall for CF in 2011. 

Right Field: Nick Markakis (3.2 predicted 2012 WAR) and Matt Angle (-0.1)
First Third  >4.1 fWAR (Blue Jays, Yankees)
Middle Third  2.4 - 4.1 fWAR (Rays)
Bottom Third  <2.4 fWAR (Orioles, Red Sox)

In 2011, the Orioles right fielders (basically just Nick) ranked as the 21st best right fielders in baseball with 2.2 WAR.  As we mentioned before, Camden Yards might underestimated Markakis' worth by about 5 runs.  With those added on, they would have ranked 19th.  What hurt most for the Orioles was that Markakis was stuck in a three month slump.  It was not until the second half when he began to show his old performance levels.

In 2012, we think that Markakis will bounce back and sustain the level of performance he showed in 2010 and the second half of 2011.  We see Markakis performing at a 360 OBP / 440 SLG level.  It is not a level that would be considered a first division right fielder, but it is solid performance for a second tier right fielder.  It is becoming more and more apparent that the Markakis we saw several years ago, the one in line to be the best right fielder in baseball, was not an accurate projection.  We will have to respect him as a good above average right fielder.

A 3.2 fWAR would rank as 17th overall for RF in 2011.


Designated Hitter: Luke Scott (2.6 predicted 2012 WAR), Chris Davis (0.1), and Nolan Reimold (0.3)
First Third  >1.8 fWAR (Red Sox)
Middle Third  1.0 - 1.8 fWAR (Rays, Blue Jays)
Bottom Third  <1.0 fWAR (Orioles, Yankees)

In 2011, the Orioles excited the fan base by signing Vladimir Guerrero to a 1 year deal worth 8 MM.  Shortly thereafter, Camden Depot was among several Orioles' blogs that were hammered by irate fans when we panned the move.  If I remember correctly, we projected Guerrero to be worth 0.9 WAR.  He wound up doing worse by achieving a 0.0 fWAR.  The Orioles essentially threw away 8 MM that could have gone to useful free agents or amateur talent.  As such, Vlad helped the team be the 13th best out of 14 American League teams for value produced by a DH.  The only AL team they beat were the Mariners (-0.2).

In 2012, the team probably is set.  Between Luke Scott (350 OPS / 500 SLG) and Nolan Reimold, the team is likely to get 3 WAR production.  There will be no reason whatsoever for the team to engage the free agent market paying big money.  The only argument I could see is letting Scott go to save money and pick up another lefty bat for 3 MM or so less. 

A 3.0 fWAR would rank as 3rd overall for DH in 2011.

Conclusion
2011 fWAR = 3.9 fWAR
2012 predicted fWAR = 11.5 fWAR

A target of 14.2 should be identified.

There needs to be more improvement somewhere along the line.  Left field might be the easiest area for improvement, but a major producer needs to found for there to be any sizable difference.

Next up . . . Starting pitchers . . . then relievers.

The Problem with LaCava's Decision

Lots of things could have happened for Tony LaCava to decline signing with the Orioles.  Highly talented people sometimes don't take good jobs (see Rick Hahn or Billy Beane).  I think it might be presumptuous to say it had to do with limitations placed by Angelos on him.  Frankly, we do not know and it does not really matter.  If Angelos is a problem, he is a constant.  He will not change, so we must focus on the part of the team that can change.

So what is the problem with Tony LaCava's decision?

It resets the interview process with two days to free agency.  DeJon Watson and John Stockstill will not be given a fair shake by the press or the public as the best options.  Watson will likely be seen as the third choice and, perhaps unfairly, Stockstill might be seen as a placeholder.  In this light, the team has to interview at least two more people and that will set the clock back another week.  The organization was already going to go through some pains through transition and this delays that further.

At some point, it might actually be best for Buck to take a year off from the dugout and try being a General Manager.  I don't think that is best for the Orioles in the long run.  However, if they want to move quickly in free agency they need to start getting their plan in order.  That might mean continuity.

So again, the issue today is not that LaCava is not coming here.  There are several GM candidates in baseball who have as good potential as he does.  The issue is that the front office remains unsettled while everyone else is ready to enter the off season.

O's Targeting Other Japanese Pitchers?

Wei-Yin Chen in '08 Olympics

I was told the other day that the Orioles are more interested in three Japanese starting pitchers who are not named Yu Darvish and do not need to be posted.  I was not told the names of these players, but I think it is fair to assume they are the following: Hisashi Iwakuma (RHSP, Rakuten Golden Eagles), Wei-Yin Chen (LHSP, Chunichi Dragons), and Tsuyoshi Wada (LHSP, Softbank Hawks). 

Hishashi Iwakuma (31 years old)
You may remember Hisashi Iwakuma's name.  He was posted last year by the Golden Eagles and the Oakland Athletics won the right to negotiate with him for the conditional amount of 18 MM.  The Athletics failed to sign him after allegedly offering him a three year deal worth 10 MM total with the agreement that they could not use arbitration with him at the end of the deal.  Unsurprisingly, Iwakuma who had made 4 MM in 2010 as a member of the Golden Eagles did not see the point in locking himself in a multi-year contract at that amount.  By staying in Japan, he signed a one year deal at 4 MM, which was more than what the A's offered.  He now is able to enter the MLB market as a free agent without the restrictions imposed by the slotting system.

Iwakuma throws five pitches in the JPL: four seamer, two seamer, split finger, slider, and curve.  In 2010, his four seamer sat around 90-91 mph.  In 2011, he saw it lose some speed which might be connected to shoulder issues he suffered this past year.  Toward the end of the season, he was up in the high 80s.  His two-seamer is a typical shuuto in that there is not much difference in velocity between it and the four seamer.  I figure that will disappear stateside.  His split finger actually looked like a very good pitch last year, but has been less useful to him in 2011.  He throws it around 83 mph this year and the difference in speed between that pitch and his four seamer has narrowed.  I think that is why is now less useful.  Iwakuma's slider comes in the high 70s now and his curve in the low 70s.  Both look very hittable.

My guess is that a stateside Iwakuma will be a below average high eighties fastball, an above average split finger in the low eighties, and an average high 70s slider with a mix of a few curves.  This is likely to be someone who would be hit pretty hard as a starter.  Prior to his injury, he looked like a potential 4 or maybe 3 slot pitcher.  He has lost about 4-5 mph on that fastball and it completely changes the outlook on him.  I think he might be best suited as a relief pitcher where he might be able to get back into the 90s with his four seamer and may be able to live primarily off the four seamer and his split finger.  The more he has to depend on his other offerings, the more trouble he is likely to have.

The projection system I developed for Yu Darvish actually is very kind to Iwakuma.  In large part I think this is due to him probably being a different pitcher in years prior to 2011.  Over 200 IP, it projects Iwakuma to throw 137 strikeouts while giving up 77 walks and 17 home runs.  This would be good enough for a 4.12 FIP.  I think the current version of Iwakuma with his reduced velocity would be more of a 5.00 to 5.50 FIP pitcher.  If someone thinks he can regain his arm strength back, I could see someone putting down a 2 year, 10 MM deal on the table.  He might be able to get 3 MM on a one year deal as a relief pitcher.  The latter would probably result in him staying in Japan.

Wei-Yin Chen (27 years old)
Chen is a rather young to qualify as a free agent as he has finished his age 26 season.  He was paid 2.25 MM for Chunichi in 2011 and would be up for a significant raise in either side of the Pacific.  The lefty had been known for pitching in the low 90s and racking up strikeouts in Japan.  However, things seems to change in 2011.  Based on the information I have, it appears he has become a completely different pitcher.  His average velocity dropped from the low 90s into the high 80s and he wound up throwing 50 more innings this year.  This gives the appearance that he threw with less effort to go deeper into games.  With a new ball this year and power evaporating league-wide, it may have been a conscious effort on his part.  It concerns me slightly, but I have heard nothing of any injury.

Chen has a four seamer, two seamer, split finger, slider, and curve.  He primarily sticks to his four seamer, split finger, and slider.  He has similar offerings as Iwakuma, but has concentrated more on those three pitches than Iwakuma.  Chen also rarely throws his two seamer while Iwakuma has lately depended on it heavily.  The pre-2011 version of Chen threw around 91-92 mph often throwing mid 90s in the first couple innings and then dropping down to 88-90 after the third inning.  This season it stays and remains in the 88-90 range.  His split finger comes around in the mid 80s.  His slider used to be slightly faster than the split finger, but has appeared a tick slower this year.  Chin finished the season coming out of the bullpen for an important game.  He managed to add three mph to his fastball and stuck with his splitfinger with a couple sliders mixed in.

I think Chen has a better chance to stick as a starter than Iwakuma.  His decrease in velocity looks more like a conscious that will be quickly changed in the States.  At worst, I think his current repertoire will play as a below average to average starter.  As a relief pitcher, I think his increased velocity coming in from the left side could make him an incredibly valuable set up or left handed long reliever.  The projection system sees Chen in a negative light.  Over 200 IP, it projects him to strike out 150 while giving up 87 walks and 21 home runs for a 4.42 FIP.  That is five or maybe four slot pitcher in the Majors and could work well for a reliever.  I would be willing to give him a 2 year, 10 MM deal and see where it would lead while starting him out as a starter.  Of course, I would get my scouts to review him first. 

Tsuyoshi Wada (31 years old)
Wada will be entering his age 31 year in 2012 and has just made 4.35 MM for the Softbank Hawks.  He has been rather prolific at striking out batters and reminds me slightly of Koji Uehara in that he is a light tosser that relies on speed change and command to rack up Ks.  Like Uehara, he is also prone to giving up the occasional long ball.  I would not put him in the same caliber as Koji though.  I actually find it surprising if he can muster much more money out of American clubs than Japanese ones.

Wada lives off three pitches: a mid 80s fastball, a 80 mph changeup, and a 80 mph slider.  Based on the pitch f/x data, it looks like he works his fastball between 82 and 88 mph while coming in with a slider occasionally.  His changeup is a pitch he tosses in for good measure against righties.  Otherwise, you only see fastballs that vary widely in speed and his slider.  I imagine to be as successful as he is in Japan, he must utilize a pretty deceptive motion.

It will be difficult for Wada to be successful in the United States as a starter.  With his average velocity of 85 mph, he would have exceeded only four other starting pitchers last year: Livan Hernandez, Jeff Francis, Tim Wakefield, and RA Dickey.  Two of those guys are knuckleball pitchers.  No relievers throwing more than 50 IP would have used a lesser velocity.  However, when Wada has been used in relief he actually averages around 90 mph.  I think he could be a very useful middle reliever for someone.  As a starter, the system projects him over 200 IP with 128 strikeouts while giving up 77 walks and 16 home runs with a 4.55 FIP.

I cannot see Wada making more than five million on this side of the Pacific.  The receiving team would have to be overly optimistic about him being able to start.  I know we were fully behind acquiring Uehara here a few years back, but, even though he was right handed and showed similar speeds, he showed incredible command.  I just do not see that in Wada.  Wada's walk rate is more than twice was Uehara's was in Japan.  I just cannot see giving him more than what he made in Japan.

Conclusion
Compares to what they could earn in Japan, Wei-Yin Chen is the only pitcher who I think shows good value to the Orioles.  He has an outside chance of being a 4/5 slot pitcher working as a 90 mph left hander or he could come out from the bullpen with a little more heat.  His pitch f/x data just looks more like what I expect from MLB quality pitchers.  Iwakuma appears as if his shoulder is a problem.  I have severe reservations spending several million on someone who looks similar to several of our own right handers who were shuttled back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore.  Wada looks interesting as a reliever, but I just cannot see matching what he makes in Japan in the US.  What works there does not necessarily work here.  It should be noted though that I have not evaluated these pitchers on video.  I have seen Iwakuma and Yada pitch, but have not really focused on them.

Free Agents - Backup Catcher

This is the second of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

Ramon Castro would be a fine backup catcher

A place where the Orioles could gain a minor improvement would be back up catcher.  John Hester (AAA - 674 OPS) and Caleb Joseph (AA - 692 OPS) do not look like options that would result is anything above replacement value.  Therefore, options have to come from outside the organization.  For the purpose of this post, we are considering anything above 0.6 WAR / 150 PA as starting catcher material and anything above 0.4 WAR / 150 PA as a good backup catcher.  We would not consider anything below 0.2 WAR / 150 PA.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 150 PA.

Potential Starters (better than 0.6 WAR / 150 PA)
Ramon Hernandez (0.79)
Hernandez will want a situation where he will see 300 or more plate appearances.  That would not be with Baltimore.
Henry Blanco (0.98)
Blanco could be considered as a starting catcher option for a team in need.  However, he has never been used as a starter his last three years.
Ramon Castro (0.91)
Castro has also shown quite a lot of value in backup catcher time.  He could be seen as a starter by some teams.  He may also prefer to go to a situation with a weak starting catcher.
Jose Molina (0.71)
Molina has also not been considered a starter in his past three seasons even though he has performed quite well during that time.
Ryan Doumit (0.68)
A somewhat poor defensive catcher with a decent bat.  He would also be able to back up other positions on the field.  After a solid 2011 season, he may be looking for a situation to start.

Good Backups (between 0.4 and 0.6)
Chris Snyder (0.59)
Snyder has been seen as a starting catcher at times over the past three years.  He really is not one.  He might be looking for a situation to become a starter.
Kelly Shoppach (0.54)
Shoppach has been used as a part timer with Tampa.  He is a solid backup and may be an option.
Rod Barajas (0.45)
Barajas has been used as the primary starter in split catching squads.  He is likely to look for weak catching teams.

Poor Backups - MiL Contract with camp invite (between 0.2 and 0.4)
Jason Varitek (0.39)
He is not coming to Baltimore.
Ivan Rodriguez (0.36)
Teams will likely overpay for him and those teams will likely have a weak catching squad.
Jason Kendall (0.31)
Kendall will not go to a team with a strong starting catcher.  He has never been a backup.
Matt Treanor (0.22)
He could be a rather cheap option

AAA Signings
Rob Johnson, Josh Bard, Dioner Navarro, Brian Schneider, and Gerald Laird.


Conclusion
I would offer a 2.5 MM contract to any of the players in the first tier with a 0.5 MM buyout on a 3 MM option.  I would lean toward Ryan Doumit because of his offensive capabilities as a pinch hitter.  Doumit made 5.2 MM last year, so he may not be eager to take a 3 MM guaranteed.  Jose Molina, Ramon Castro, or Henry Blanco would also be good choices.  None of them were paid more than 1.2 MM last year.  The Orioles would be likely to grab any of them for far less than they are likely worth.

Watch Yu Darvish's Last Start

Work on your Japanese and watch managerial moves that appear more questionable than what we saw during the World Series.  It is composed of two two-hour videos and a four minute video.  The last one does not include Darvish.  Keep in mind, this is the recording of the live feed.

MLB Players in the game:

Seibu Lions
Jose Fernandez
Fernandez is 36 years old and was an amateur signing of the Expos from the Dominican Republic.  He had a handful of at bats with Montreal in 1999 and a few more with the Angels in 2001.  Since then he has mainly jumped around the JPL as a power bat.  For this game, he is the Lions DH.
Alex Graman
Graman is a 33 year old reliever who was a third round selection for the Yankees in 1999.  He has had a rather uneven career in the JPL having only one impressive season in the five he has had with Seibu.  In 2004 and 2005 he put together 6.1 innings for the Yankees with an ERA of 18.47.  He was a decent starter in the minors though.

Nippon Ham Fighters
Micah Hoffpauir
Hoffpauir is a 31 corner outfielder and had played with the Cubs for 162 games over 2008-2010.  Last year he headed off to Japan.  He comes into this game as a pinch hitter.
Bobby Scales
The 34 year old appears as Nippon's DH in this game.  You may remember him from the 61 games he played for the Cubs over 2009 and 2010.


Watch live video from 為台灣選手加油 on Justin.tv


Watch live video from 為台灣選手加油 on Justin.tv


Watch live video from 為台灣選手加油 on Justin.tv